Brazil can avoid The Crisis | NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Brazil can avoid The Crisis

"Brazil isn't destined to have a crisis, it's possible to avoid it," Roubini said to Folha "If they make the necessary adjustments, there won't be any further downgrading and confidence in fiscal policy will improve. That will make people more comfortable about spending. The currency has devalued to the point of becoming more competitive, and exports should increase, though not by much, because of the global situation. Midway through next year, inflation should fall, because there will no longer be the effects of the increase of price controls and the recession will make the increase in salaries lower. The Central Bank will thus be able to cut interest rates and that will re-establish some growth. Brazilian GDP is likely to shrink 3% this year, perhaps as much as 4%. In 2016, if adjustments are made, I think there will be recession in the first six months, but the economy will bottom out midway through the year and then begin to recover. Brazil is not destined to have a crisis. There is a way out, although it is difficult and requires political courage from whoever is in power. For things to stabilize, fiscal adjustment is necessary, there's no other way," he added.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

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Nouriel Roubini, (born March 29, 1958, Istanbul, Turkey), Turkish-born American economist and educator who was best known for predicting the 2007–08 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the subsequent global financial crisis.

Born to Iranian Jewish parents, Roubini moved with his family to Iran and Israel before they settled in Italy in 1962. After a year at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, he studied economics at Bocconi University in Milan (B.A., 1982) and Harvard University (Ph.D., 1988), where he specialized in macroeconomics and international economics. He joined the economics faculty at Yale University in 1988 and taught there until 1995, when he moved to New York University. He also served as a visiting scholar to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), held single-year terms on the White House Council of Economic Advisers (1998–99) and at the U.S. Department of the Treasury (1999–2000), and cofounded (2004) the consulting firm Roubini Global Economics. Roubini spent much of his early career studying countries that experienced extreme economic failures, such as Mexico (in 1994), Thailand and other countries associated with the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Russia (1998), and Argentina (2000). He determined that each shared one common element: a massive current account deficit.(www.britannica.com)

Nouriel Roubini is the Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, his own global macroeconomic consultancy firm. He is also a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Dr. Roubini has extensive policy experience as well as broad academic credentials. From 1998 to 2000, he served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises, among other issues. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have drawn upon his consulting expertise.