Brazil on the Brink of a Precipice Roubini Warns | NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Brazil on the Brink of a Precipice Roubini Warns

Nouriel Roubini, one of the few economists who predicted the financial crisis of 2008, has warned, "Brazil is on the brink of a precipice."

Roubini argues that without fiscal adjustment, the country will lose its investment grade rating with other credit rating agencies (as has already happened with Standard and Poor's); borrowing costs will skyrocket; the real will go into freefall and the economy will shrink further still.

But Dr. Apocalypse, as the economist is known for his gloomy predictions, is not entirely pessimistic about Brazil's future. "Brazil isn't destined to have a crisis, it's possible to avoid it," he says. However, he says that for this to occur the country must run a surplus of at least 0.7% in 2016.

He estimates that Brazilian GDP will shrink by around 3% this year and remain stagnant or just slightly positive in 2016, as long as there is adjustment. According to the Focus report, the market expects recession of 2.85% in 2015 and 1% in 2016.

read more @ http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2015/10/1693317-brazil-on-the-brink-of-a-precipice-says-roubini-but-crisis-may-be-averted.shtml

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

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Nouriel Roubini, (born March 29, 1958, Istanbul, Turkey), Turkish-born American economist and educator who was best known for predicting the 2007–08 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the subsequent global financial crisis.

Born to Iranian Jewish parents, Roubini moved with his family to Iran and Israel before they settled in Italy in 1962. After a year at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, he studied economics at Bocconi University in Milan (B.A., 1982) and Harvard University (Ph.D., 1988), where he specialized in macroeconomics and international economics. He joined the economics faculty at Yale University in 1988 and taught there until 1995, when he moved to New York University. He also served as a visiting scholar to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), held single-year terms on the White House Council of Economic Advisers (1998–99) and at the U.S. Department of the Treasury (1999–2000), and cofounded (2004) the consulting firm Roubini Global Economics. Roubini spent much of his early career studying countries that experienced extreme economic failures, such as Mexico (in 1994), Thailand and other countries associated with the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Russia (1998), and Argentina (2000). He determined that each shared one common element: a massive current account deficit.(www.britannica.com)

Nouriel Roubini is the Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, his own global macroeconomic consultancy firm. He is also a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Dr. Roubini has extensive policy experience as well as broad academic credentials. From 1998 to 2000, he served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises, among other issues. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have drawn upon his consulting expertise.