The Liquidity Time Bomb by Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – A paradox has emerged in the financial markets of the advanced economies since the 2008 global financial crisis. Unconventional monetary policies have created a massive overhang of liquidity. But a series of recent shocks suggests that macro liquidity has become linked with severe market illiquidity.

Policy interest rates are near zero (and sometimes below it) in most advanced economies, and the monetary base (money created by central banks in the form of cash and liquid commercial-bank reserves) has soared – doubling, tripling, and, in the United States, quadrupling relative to the pre-crisis period. This has kept short- and long-term interest rates low (and even negative in some cases, such as Europe and Japan), reduced the volatility of bond markets, and lifted many asset prices (including equities, real estate, and fixed-income private- and public-sector bonds).

And yet investors have reason to be concerned. Their fears started with the “flash crash” of May 2010, when, in a matter of 30 minutes, major US stock indices fell by almost 10%, before recovering rapidly. Then came the “taper tantrum” in the spring of 2013, when US long-term interest rates shot up by 100 basis points after then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at an end to the Fed’s monthly purchases of long-term securities.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/liquidity-market-volatility-flash-crash-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-05#crpXpEPu1pV39EJl.99







 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini says central bankers have a tough choice: Kill recovery or risk bubbles

Regulations meant to curb risks in the global financial system –known to economists as “macroprudential regulations” — had better work, or central bankers will be between a rock and a hard place.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis six years ago, unconventional tools like quantitative easing and zero-interest rate policies may have sparked an economic recovery but not one of turbocharged growth or low unemployment. That puts policy makers in a difficult position, NYU economist Nouriel Roubini wrote in an opinion piece at Live Mint on Wednesday. He added:
“[P]olicymakers will eventually face an ugly trade-off: kill the recovery to avoid risky bubbles, or go for growth at the risk of fueling the next financial crisis.”

China Slowdown hurting Commodity Markets : Nouriel Roubini

China slowdown hurting commodity mkts: Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini & Mohamed El-Erian on the Double-Dip Recession

Nouriel Roubini : well the probability of a double dip recession right now in my view is at least at 50 percent not just in the United States but also in most of the periphery of the Eurozone the united Kingdom and Japan had a double dip now they are recovering from the earthquake but their structural growth is anemic , it is a situation in which there was too much debt in the private sector now there is too much debt in the public sector and this painful process of delivering we need to spend less to save more to reduce your debt implies weak economic growth , but the economic growth have now become so weak most of these economies are at a stall sped it is like an airplane that decelerates to the point in which it reaches a stall speed either you accelerate and you get to escape velocity or otherwise you start a free fall

Nouriel Roubini - Estoril Conferences - Portugal 2011

Nouriel Roubini speech at the Estoril Conferences in Portugal : "the globalization started here in Portugal some 500 years ago " " we know that the crisis was caused by too much easy money , too much easy credit excessive debt leverage by households and financial institutions , excessive risk taking , lacks of supervision regulation of the financial system , so there was not one cause but multiple ones that led to a boom and a bubble followed by a bust and a crash " says Nouriel Roubini " but the problem we are facing today is that a crisis that started with too much private debt and leverage now has turned has morphed into a new type of crisis , it is a crisis which is now too much public debt and deficit and leverage " Roubini added ...

Nouriel Roubini - Global Financial Forum

Nouriel Roubini : a year ago the real economy was really in free fall , the falling output the employment demand export import was parallel on what was going on in 1929 and 1931 , and I think that after the collapse of Lehman the policy makers that have been behind the curve they looked into the base they realized that there was a risk of another depression and you have to command them for taking the very aggressive policy action that stabilized the global economy first bottoming out and out to the beginning of the recovery ,....

Nouriel Roubini - Forum Invest Finance 2011

Professor of economics Nouriel Roubini Economic Analyst, Co Founder of Roubini Global Economics, speaking during the Forum Invest Finance 2011 in Bucharest Romania May 24-26 2011 , he spoke about Greece debt its implications on the other European countries the ECB policy dealing with the Greek's debt , Portugal Ireland and Spain's debt situations

Crisis Economics by Nouriel Roubini, Stephen Mihm

Audiobook: Crisis Economics by Nouriel Roubini, Stephen Mihm



Buy full audiobook: http://www.qksrv.net/interactive?aid=...
This myth-shattering book reveals the methods Nouriel Roubini used to foretell the current crisis before other economists saw it coming and explains how those methods can help us make sense of the present and prepare for the future.
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini electrified his profession and the larger financial community by predicting the current crisis well in advance of anyone else. Unlike most in his profession, who treat economic disasters as freakish once-inA-a-lifetime events without clear cause, Roubini, after decades of careful research around the world, realized that they were both probable and predictable. Armed with a blend of historical analysis and global economics, Roubini has forced politicians, policy makers, investors, and market watchers to face a long-neglected truth: financial systems are inherently fragile and prone to collapse.
Drawing on the parallels from many countries and centuries, Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm, a professor of economic history and a New York Times Magazine writer, show that financial cataclysms are as old and as ubiquitous as capitalism itself. All of these crises have much in common with the current downturn. Bringing lessons of earlier episodes to bear on our present predicament, Roubini and Mihm show how we can recognize and grapple with the inherent instability of the global financial system and plan for our immediate future. Perhaps most important, the authors - considering theories, statistics, and mathematical models with the skepticism that recent history warrants - explain how the world's economy can get out of the mess we're in, and stay out. In Roubini's shadow, economists and investors are increasingly realizing that they can no longer afford to consider crises the black swans of financial history.
A vital and timeless book, Crisis Economics proves calamities to be not only predictable but also preventable and, with the right medicine, curable.

Nouriel Roubini : the stock markets could sharply correct,

“With growth at a stall speed of 1 percent or below, the stock markets could sharply correct, and credit spreads and interbank spreads widen while global risk aversion sharply increases,” “A negative feedback loop between the real economy and the risky asset prices can easily then tip the economy into a formal double dip,”

said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the global financial crisis in an Aug. 25 e-mail message to Bloomberg television
via Bloomberg.com

Nouriel Roubini Saw it coming before anybody else

NOURIEL ROUBINI: Professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business; chairman of RGE Monitor, an economic consultancy firm; former senior economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisers under Clinton
At the height of the housing boom, no one was predicting an economic collapse with more fervor than Nouriel "Doctor Doom" Roubini. As the crisis kept deepening, he kept predicting it would get worse, and kept being proved right.

Nouriel Roubini the black sheep of his family

Nouriel Roubini rejected his family business and instead of becoming a rug dealer or a nuclear engineer he have chosen to became an economics professor

Nouriel Roubini: U.S. Has Two Economies

The U.S. has two economies, says Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Monitor. "There is a smaller one that is slowly recovering and a larger one that is still in a deep and persistent downturn," Roubini writes. Roubini notes that while America's official unemployment rate is 10.2 per cent, the figure jumps to a whopping 17.5 per cent when discouraged workers and partially employed workers are included. And, while data from firms suggest that job losses in the past three months were about 600,000, household surveys, which include self-employed workers and small entrepreneurs, suggest a number above two million. "Many of the lost jobs - in construction, finance, and outsourced manufacturing and services - are gone forever, and recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs can be fully outsourced over time to other countries," Roubini says. - MoneyNews

Roubini Entire countries face bankruptcy…

According to ‘Dr.Doom’ NYU Economic’s professor and world economist Nouriel Roubini, who last year predicted the U.S. fallout, for the “first time in decades, there are sovereign risks among developed Western countries,..”

Source: read more Entire countries face bankruptcy

Nouriel Roubini Lessons From Dubai World

the heart of the saga is a message that investors shouldn't assume implicit government support. Credit ratings for Dubai-owned companies now reflect this lesson, based on a fundamental credit outlook, not an implicit government backstop.

Read the whole story: forbes.com

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Roubini: Global Markets Could Soon Crash

Dan Weil
Newsmax
October 31, 2009

The global markets are at risk of crashing when the dollar rebounds, says economist Nouriel Roubini.

Roubini, a professor at NYU, is credited with long predicting the financial collapse of 2007 and 2008.

“In the short run what’s happening is there’s a wall of liquidity, not just in the U.S., but around the world, that is chasing assets,” he told CNBC.

“It’s equities, it’s commodities, it’s credit, it’s gold, it’s emerging market asset classes.”

And what does that amount to? “Now we are in the mother of all carry trades,” Roubini says.
Via Infowars
Read entire article >>>

Roubini to CNBC We Are in the Mother of All Carry Trades

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, RGE Monitor, told CNBC Monday.

"There is a wall of liquidity…chasing assets," Roubini told "Squawk Box."

"Now we are in the mother of all carry trades,"
"The reality is that the dollar is the funding currency of the carry trades. Because of that the dollar weakness is going to continue for a while."
"The (stock) markets are pricing in a V-shaped recovery," Roubini said. "If the data surprise on the downside then there is going to be a significant correction."

The price of oil may also be among the assets that will fall.

"It seems to me that this rally in oil prices is way ahead of the economy," Roubini said.

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