Roubini : Twitter worked fine with my blackberry phone while in China

Nouriel Roubini : Paul, Twitter worked fine with my blackberry phone while in China.. @paulmromer: Back from long visit in China (with no access to Twitter) - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini likes U.S. Stocks for Now

Nouriel Roubini : "I've been suggesting you should be overweight in the U.S. equities for the time being," "The forces of slow but improving growth, massive liquidity and continued Fed easing, reduction of tail risk, of low volatility, of low risk aversion can continue for awhile."

Nouriel Roubini : no one should think that any government bonds are completely safe, particularly from inflation and financial repression

Nouriel Roubini : A lot has changed since 2005. We had the financial crisis, and some of the factors cited by Bernanke have substantially reversed. For example, Asian investment is booming again, led by China. And yet global interest rates are even lower now than they were then. Why?
There are several competing theories, most of them quite elegant, but none of them entirely satisfactory. One view holds that long-term growth risks have been on the rise, raising the premium on assets that are perceived to be relatively safe, and raising precautionary saving in general. (Of course, no one should think that any government bonds are completely safe, particularly from inflation and financial repression.) Certainly, the 2008 financial crisis should have been a wakeup call to proponents of the “Great Moderation” view that long-term volatility has fallen. Many studies suggest that it is becoming more difficult than ever to anchor expectations about long-term growth trends. Witness, for example, the active debate about whether technological progress is accelerating or decelerating. Shifting geopolitical power also breeds uncertainty. - in project-syndicate

Roubini Sees Upside Surprise for Stocks, But ...

Nouriel Roubini likes U.S. stocks for the time being, but warns there are still some serious risks that could hurt equities.

Roubini : Japan is trying a new Economic Experiment to stop Deflation

Nouriel Roubini : Farther East, Japan is trying a new economic experiment to stop deflation, boost economic growth, and restore business and consumer confidence. “Abenomics” has several components: aggressive monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan; a fiscal stimulus this year to jump start demand, followed by fiscal austerity in 2014 to rein in deficits and debt; a push to increase nominal wages to boost domestic demand; structural reforms to deregulate the economy; and new free-trade agreements – starting with the Trans-Pacific Partnership – to boost trade and productivity. - in project-syndicate.org

Roubini : China has many Problems

Nouriel Roubini : In China, the leadership transition has occurred smoothly. But the country’s economic model remains, as former Premier Wen Jiabao famously put it, “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable.”  China’s problems are many: regional imbalances between its coastal regions and the interior, and between urban and rural areas; too much savings and fixed investment, and too little private consumption; growing income and wealth inequality; and massive environmental degradation, with air, water, and soil pollution jeopardizing public health and food safety. - in project-syndicate

The Global Economy on the Fly

by Nouriel Roubini :

ISTANBUL – In the last four weeks, I have traveled to Sofia, Kuala Lumpur, Dubai, London, Milan, Frankfurt, Berlin, Paris, Beijing, Tokyo, Istanbul, and throughout the United States. As a result, the myriad challenges facing the global economy were never far away.
In Europe, the tail risk of a eurozone break-up and a loss of market access by Spain and Italy were reduced by last summer’s decision by the European Central Bank to backstop sovereign debt. But the monetary union’s fundamental problems – low potential growth, ongoing recession, loss of competitiveness, and large stocks of private and public debt – have not been resolved.

Moreover, the grand bargain between the eurozone core, the ECB, and the periphery – painful austerity and reforms in exchange for large-scale financial support – is now breaking down, as austerity fatigue in the eurozone periphery runs up against bailout fatigue in core countries like Germany and the Netherlands.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/surveying-the-world-economy-s-myriad-problems-by-nouriel-roubini#IJFEHHeUud8XlvUI.99

Nouriel Roubini : The UK on the verge of triple Dip Recession

Nouriel Roubini : Indeed the UK on the verge of triple dip recession @D_Blanchflower: Bad cips manufacturing pmi for uk keeps fear of triple dip alive - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : US and Japan are in better shape compared to the rest of the developed countries

Nouriel Roubini : "Among advanced economies, the US is in the best relative shape, followed by Japan, where Abenomics is boosting confidence." - in a recent article

Nouriel Roubini : Arab Spring becomes Arab Nightmare

Nouriel Roubini : Arab Spring becomes Arab Nightmare "NYT: Egypt, Short of Money, Sees Crisis on Fuel and Food" http://bit.ly/YT9lGI - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini: Forget the G20, We Live in a G Zero World

Nouriel Roubini: Forget the G20, We Live in a G Zero World : The global disagreements that are making leadership and action difficult. |

Roubini Predicts Slower Growth in Russia

Russia's economy is facing a slowdown due to a lack of necessary structural reforms, according to a report by Roubini Global Economics, a macroeconomic research firm founded by economist Nouriel Roubini. According to the firm's estimates, GDP growth will slow to 3.3 percent this year, versus 3.4 percent last year. Growth next year is expected to drop to 3.2 percent. Despite the government's intention to move to an investment-fueled model of growth, consumption will remain the economy's main driver in 2013-14. - in the Moscow Times
Read more: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/roubini-predicts-slower-growth-in-russia/477597.html#ixzz2OrgZgM3xThe Moscow Times

Nouriel Roubini : How is the Eurozone Economy doing? In one word: Good! In two words? Not Good!

Nouriel Roubini : How's the Eurozone economy doing? In one word: "Good!" In two words? "Not Good!" - in twitter

Roubini : The Philippines was upgraded by Fitch to an Investment grade rating. A well deserved upgrade

Nouriel Roubini : As I predicted in Manila in early February the Philippines was upgraded by Fitch to an investment grade rating. A well deserved upgrade! - in twitter

Roubini : it’s not only monetary stimulus by the Fed that’s been driving stocks higher but also more unconventional monetary policy

Economist Nouriel Roubini of NYU’s Stern School of Business tells The Daily Ticker that it’s not only monetary stimulus by the Fed that’s been driving stocks higher but also “more unconventional monetary policy” from the ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. That stimulus is aimed at boosting economic growth and it may have helped, but the global economy is slowing.

In the fourth quarter, the major economies of the U.S., U.K, Japan and the Eurozone all contracted and they could slow even more because of spending cuts, says Roubini. “The core of the Eurozone has to do it, the U.S. has to do it…and when you have synchronized fiscal contraction the negative effects on economic growth are worse." - in Yahoo Finance

Roubini ‏: The problem of air/water quality & the issue of food safety is the most disruptive social issue in China

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " The problem of air/water quality & the issue of food safety is the most disruptive social issue in China. Local middle class is very"
"Beijing isnt architectonically as pretty as Shanghai but is home to artists, intellectuals, writers, internet start-ups & the creative class" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini 2013 Global Economic Outlook

Nouriel Roubini :  The tail risk of something disorderly in the eurozone – like a Greek exit or Italy and Spain losing market access that were severe risks in the middle of last year – have basically been reduced because they have announced this new program of bond purchases, the OMT, there is this new ESM, there is another half a trillion euros out there for banks and sovereign, because there is talk about a banking and fiscal union, and because now Germany has used the words about the periphery of the eurozone that are more constructive.

    But if you look at the fundamental problem in the eurozone: lack of economic growth and continued recession, low potential growth because of demographics and lack of reforms, 2) debt sustainability - official and private – are too high, and 3) lack and loss of competitiveness, and a large external deficit that the private sector does not want to finance – those fundamental problems of the eurozone have not been resolved, they may have been pushed by a few quarters, but fundamental problems of growth, competitiveness and sustainability have not been resolved.

Nouriel Roubini : Instability in the Middle East is an issue

Nouriel Roubini : “Instability in the Middle East is an issue: and the instability is not just tension between Israel and Iran – that if there were to become violent they could spike global oil prices to double the current level and tip the global economy into recession. If you look at the Middle East, all from Maghreb, Algeria to Afghanistan and Pakistan, there is geopolitical tension that could have economic consequences.” - in a recent interview with CNN Money

Roubini : ECB must cut rates or risk crisis again

Roubini : "They have to cut the policy rate, they have to stimulate the economy, they have to try to weaken the value of the euro,""The euro should be 10, 20 or even 30% weaker to restore the competitiveness of the [eurozone] periphery," Roubini said. "If they are the only [central bank] holding out, then the damage economically and politically will be severe," he said. "The risk is there will be a clash between austerity fatigue in the periphery of the eurozone and bailout fatigue in the core -- the two could clash in a way that could put at risk again the entire eurozone system."

Nouriel Roubini ‏: The collateral damage for the EZ of waking insured deposits is serious in the future

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " Any deal on Cyprus must exclude deposits below 100K as the collateral damage for the EZ of waking insured deposits is serious in the future"
"Eurozone officials admit being 'in a mess' over Cyprus during conference call http://bit.ly/14e7dAt" - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Eurozone in a mess over Cyprus

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Eurozone officials admit being 'in a mess' over Cyprus during conference call http://bit.ly/14e7dAt
EZ PMIs suggest deepening recession in both core and periphery. Time for the ECB to cut the refi rate! - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Russia Wants a Naval base in Cyprus not just the right to Offshore Gas Reserves

Nouriel Roubini ‏: "UK & US may be queasy about a Russian naval base in Cyprus but Germany may not as limiting the size of EZ/German bailout funds is critical "
"Russia doesn't just want the right to Cyprus offshore gas reserves; it also wants a military naval base there in exchange for a bailout" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini on Cyprus Deal

Nouriel Roubini ‏: A sensible Cyprus deal would have bailed in sov creditors, large depositors above 100k (not small ones) & senior unsecured bank bonded debt - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Cyprus mistake wasn't the bailing of large depositors. Rather the bailing of small insured depositors

Nouriel Roubini ‏: A sensible Cyprus deal would have bailed in sov creditors, large depositors above 100k (not small ones) & senior unsecured bank bonded debt

Rather than small insured depositors the bailin should have also included senior unsec bank bond creditors & the sovereign creditors

I wrote in February that a bailin of bank creditors was indeed more likely than that of the sovereign ones Cyprus mistake wasn't the bailin of large depositors. Rather the bailin of small insured depositors & lack of bailin of senior unsec credtrs - via twitter

Eurozone Bailout Cyprus after Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Who is next?

Nouriel Roubini : EZ bailout #4: Cyprus after Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Who is next? Spain has already access to EFSF/ESM for its banks Rather than PSI (bail-in of unsecured creditors of banks & sovereign) or OSI we got HSI(Household Sector Involvement) in Cyprus crisis resol - via twitter

Roubini : In Italy there's the beginning of a political storm

Nouriel Roubini : "In Italy there's the beginning of a political storm. The result of the Italian elections signal that the majority of people are against austerity and not just in Italy also in Lisbon half a million people were in the streets and 25 percent unemployment in Greece and Spain, 50 percent amongst young people and there is restlessness," - in a recent interview with CNBC

Nouriel Roubini : we'll get a Clash between Italy and Germany and the ECB

Nouriel Roubini : "In this time the economy will get worse given the political uncertainty, less investment, less job hiring and less consumption. There's a meaningful chance that the new [political] forces in Italy, whatever combination there is, these will be significantly against austerity and then we'll get a clash between Italy and Germany and the ECB," - in CNBC

Fed Won't Stop Easing Until 2014

The U.S. will not end its quantitative easing program before 2014, according to Christian Menegatti, managing director of research at Roubini Global Economics. Menegatti, who works alongside well-known economist Nouriel Roubini , said quantitative easing will continue throughout 2013 and an interest rate cut will not be on the cards until 2015. The U.S. central bank has kept benchmark interest rates close to zero since 2009 and has tried to stimulate the economy also through three rounds of quantitative easing, or bond purchases. The third round was implemented in September last year, known as QE3. "We are talking about 2014, in terms of winding down quantitative easing. We'll have to wait much longer for rate hikes ... well into 2015 and maybe towards the end of it," said Menegatti. - via CNBC

Roubini : Austerity Backlash Big Economic Risk

 Nouriel Roubini, co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, talks about the European sovereign-debt crisis, the outlook for central bank monetary policy and risks of an asset "bubble." He speaks with Bloomberg Television's Mark Barton from the sidelines of the Ambrosetti workshop in Cernobbio, Italy. (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini : Global Equity Rally Masks Risk From Europe to U.S.

Nouriel Roubini : “Those risks are currently somehow under-priced by the market,” he said today in an interview. “They may be contained in the first half of the year, but they may re-emerge.” “Markets are underestimating how much the sequester and the gridlock in the United States could have negative effects on the economy and eventually on the market,” Roubini said. - in Bloomberg

Roubini : US Will Suffer Payback For Not Implementing Euro-Style Economic Austerity

Nouriel Roubini Says US Will Suffer ‘Payback’ For Not Implementing Euro-Style Economic Austerity, Predicts 1.5% GDP Growth For The Year Speaking Friday from the annual Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy , “I think that we have another year in the U.S. of growth below trend ... one-and-a-half [percent] is the best estimate,” he told CNBC from Italy on Friday. “We have postponed the fiscal austerity, unlike the euro zone and the United Kingdom, and now we stole some growth from the future; we have to start the fiscal consolidation, and therefore there will be some payback from the mistakes made in the past.”

Nouriel Roubini Warns High Growth Crucial for Bulgaria

According to Roubini all important challenges that Bulgaria faces depend on the recovery of strong economic growth. "Good macroeconomic framework, low inflation and deficit helped the country, but the old growth model does not work any more and a new one is needed," said the economist. According to him, this new model can be found in investments in the private sector, structural reforms through "productive" investments, including public-private partnerships. Bulgaria was too strict with austerity as energy prices soared, driving angry voters to the streets and bringing down the Cabinet, Roubini said in an interview for Bloomberg agency before event. "Fiscal austerity is valid and countries should have some fiscal policies. Probably in Bulgaria austerity has been very frontloaded." - At a forum in Sofia on February 26, Roubini, who runs a New York-based consultancy, delivered a speech entitled "Growth opportunities for a small economy in the global world". - via www.novinite.com

Nouriel Roubini Predicts Major Disappointments In Late 2013

According to Nouriel Roubini, A major American economist who predicted the 2008-2009 global crisis, says investors should get ready for major disappointments later this year. He made such a statement during the recent Ambrosetti Forum in Italy.
The founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC reports that tax hikes and spending cuts may hinder the US economic recovery. The professor admits that spending cuts can be implemented at the expense of the income tax as well as the tax for the super-rich.

He says the retail sales industry may see a major decline, which may eventually turn into a disaster.  Mr. Roubini, who is famous for his pessimistic forecasts, assumes that the US GDP will only grow by 1.5% at best.

As a result, financial markets will be shocked by the pace of the US economic slowdown later this year. He expects quarterly income reports that will be published later this year to disappoint investors, thereby making the US stock market retrace. - in www.profi-forex.us

Nouriel Roubini : We Risk QE Wars and Stagnation

Most observers regard unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing (QE) as necessary to jump-start growth in today's anemic economies. But questions about the effectiveness and risks of QE have begun to multiply as well. In particular, 10 potential costs associated with such policies merit attention.
First, while a purely "Austrian" response (that is, austerity) to bursting asset and credit bubbles may lead to a depression, QE policies that postpone the necessary private- and public-sector deleveraging for too long may create an army of zombies: zombie financial institutions, zombie households and firms, and, in the end, zombie governments. So, somewhere between the Austrian and Keynesian extremes, QE needs to be phased out over time. - excerpt from an article in The Guardian

ROUBINI: Markets Will Be Shocked By How Much of A Slowdown Is Coming This Year, And Stocks Will Dive

Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, tells CNBC Europe that the stock market could be surprised by how much the U.S. economy slows down in the second half of the year, causing it to "correct somehow." Nouriel Roubini was interviewed by CNBC's Ross Westgate in Italy today, and Roubini had a lot of negative things to say a bunch of stuff.