Gold Is Solely A Play On Capital Appreciation

Nouriel Roubini : "Unlike other assets, gold does not provide any income. Whereas equities have dividends, bonds have coupons, and homes provide rents, gold is solely a play on capital appreciation. Now that the global economy is recovering, other assets – equities or even revived real estate – thus provide higher returns." - in A World Of Ideas

The Ongoing Weakness of America’s Economy

The ongoing weakness of America’s economy—where deleveraging in the private and public sectors continues apace—has led to stubbornly high unemployment and sub-par growth. The effects of fiscal austerity—a sharp rise in taxes and a sharp fall in government spending since the beginning of the year—are undermining economic performance even more.

France Is Slipping Into A Recession

"France is slipping into a recession that complicates the austerity & reform agenda." - in Roubini`s Official Twitter

Fed's Liquidity Injections Are Not Creating Credit For The Real Economy

The problem is that the Fed's liquidity injections are not creating credit for the real economy, but rather boosting leverage and risk-taking in financial markets. The issuance of risky junk bonds under loose covenants and with excessively low interest rates is increasing; the stock market is reaching new highs, despite the growth slowdown; and money is flowing to high-yielding emerging markets.

Be Sure Your Seat Belt Is Securely Fastened

“Be sure your seat belt is securely fastened, because nothing has really come to rest. We have entered the ‘New Abnormal’, a period in which...the wise investor is prepared to be surprised.”

Huge Gap Between Sentiment On Wall Street And The Main Street

"There is a huge gap between sentiment on Wall Street and the main street."

Market Outlook: Gravitational Forces & Levitational Forces

"It could go on for another year or two. Of course, there are two forces. Growth is slow. Earnings growth is also slowing down. Top line and bottom line are not as good as they used to be, but margins are high. They could correct, somehow, over time.
But you have the gravitational forces of slow economy leading eventually to correction, but then the levitational forces of QEs, zero policy rates, more money coming in the market – not just from the U.S., but from other economies – it's going to levitate asset prices.

So, as I pointed out, this might lead to a generalized credit and equity and asset bubble in the next year or two, followed by a crash. But for the next year or so, as long as the economy grows 1.5-2 percent, and you have easy money, this market can go higher. "- in Business Insider

Roubini : The Commodity super-cycle may be over

....., The commodity super-cycle that helped Brazil, Russia, South Africa, and many other commodity-exporting emerging markets may be over. Indeed, a boom would be difficult to sustain, given China's slowdown, higher investment in energy-saving technologies, less emphasis on capital- and resource-oriented growth models around the world, and the delayed increase in supply that high prices induced. - excerpt from a Nouriel Roubini article in the Guardian

Nouriel Roubini vs. James Rickards

Nouriel Roubini also known as Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini,decided to ask James Rickards, author of "Currency Wars," why he advocates for a return to the gold standard in his book "currency wars," when it was this return to gold that was a direct cause of the Great Depression. James Rickards responded by pointing out that it was not the return to gold, but rather the return to gold at the pre-WWI price that necessitated deflation, which exacerbated the depression. Nouriel then went to town on Rickards with, what became, full out, personal insults. He called James Rickards "arrogant" and said that the Wizard of OZ is a better read for those who want to understand the gold debate than Currency Wars

Nouriel Roubini Interview @ The EPI Summit 2013

EPI Summit 2013 - Speaker Interview - Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics

The 13th European Pensions & Investments Summit delivered more than 25 hours of world class briefings from some of the leading minds in the pensions industry including: ATP, APG, British Steel Pension Scheme, City of Oslo Pension Fund, Pension Protection Fund, UK Minister for Work and Pensions and many more.

Join the 2014 Summit along with leading regional pension investors and global asset managers in an intimate environment for a focused discussion of key new drivers shaping institutional investment strategies today.

The Oil Boom’s Foreign Policy dividend

By John Hannah and Nouriel Roubini
July 19, 2013
The domestic benefits of the U.S. oil production boom are well documented — everything from the creation of high-paying jobs to sending less money to foreign oil producers.

Less well appreciated are the geopolitical benefits. U.S. oil production has already paid foreign policy dividends in at least one vital area: It has paved the way for stronger sanctions on Iran by helping to keep the global oil market well-supplied and minimizing oil price volatility.

This development is timely and instructive.

By the first half of 2014, according to credible estimates, Iran is likely to be able to covertly produce enough highly enriched uranium for one nuclear device in as little as seven to 10 days — before it could be detected by the international community. While it remains unclear how close Iran is to nuclear weapons capability, the consensus is that the window for preventing it from happening is closing.
read more : http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/07/19/the-oil-booms-foreign-policy-dividend/ >>>>>>

Trouble in Emerging-Market Paradise

NEW YORK – During the last few years, a lot of hype has been heaped on the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). With their large populations and rapid growth, these countries, so the argument goes, will soon become some of the largest economies in the world – and, in the case of China, the largest of all by as early as 2020. But the BRICS, as well as many other emerging-market economies – have recently experienced a sharp economic slowdown. So, is the honeymoon over?
Brazil’s GDP grew by only 1% last year, and may not grow by more than 2% this year, with its potential growth barely above 3%. Russia’s economy may grow by barely 2% this year, with potential growth also at around 3%, despite oil prices being around $100 a barrel. India had a couple of years of strong growth recently (11.2% in 2010 and 7.7% in 2011) but slowed to 4% in 2012. China’s economy grew by 10% per year for the last three decades, but slowed to 7.8% last year and risks a hard landing. And South Africa grew by only 2.5% last year and may not grow faster than 2% this year.

Many other previously fast-growing emerging-market economies – for example, Turkey, Argentina, Poland, Hungary, and many in Central and Eastern Europe – are experiencing a similar slowdown. So, what is ailing the BRICS and other emerging markets?

First, most emerging-market economies were overheating in 2010-2011, with growth above potential and inflation rising and exceeding targets. Many of them thus tightened monetary policy in 2011, with consequences for growth in 2012 that have carried over into this year.

Second, the idea that emerging-market economies could fully decouple from economic weakness in advanced economies was far-fetched: recession in the eurozone, near-recession in the United Kingdom and Japan in 2011-2012, and slow economic growth in the United States were always likely to affect emerging-market performance negatively – via trade, financial links, and investor confidence. For example, the ongoing eurozone downturn has hurt Turkey and emerging-market economies in Central and Eastern Europe, owing to trade links.

 read more : http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/slower-growth-ahead-for-the-brics-and-other-emerging-markets-by-nouriel-roubini

RGE Roubini Global Economics Introduces Country Risk Assessment Tool

"Since the global financial crisis began, asset managers, corporations and governments have struggled to understand and adequately respond to unprecedented stress on economies and asset markets," Dr. Roubini said. "With Country Insights' sophisticated quantitative model, we surface signals worthy of inspection, and our world-class macro-strategy team can then turn those signals into valuable insight."

The Oil Boom’s foreign Policy Dividend

By John Hannah and Nouriel Roubini
July 19, 2013
 The domestic benefits of the U.S. oil production boom are well documented — everything from the creation of high-paying jobs to sending less money to foreign oil producers.

Less well appreciated are the geopolitical benefits. U.S. oil production has already paid foreign policy dividends in at least one vital area: It has paved the way for stronger sanctions on Iran by helping to keep the global oil market well-supplied and minimizing oil price volatility.

This development is timely and instructive.
 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/07/19/the-oil-booms-foreign-policy-dividend/

[VIDEO] Nouriel Roubini Speaking at The NY Forum Africa 2013: Is Africa’s Robust Growth Sustainable?

Nouriel Roubini : “A potentially a toxic nexus between on one side global climate change effects on Africa, and unfair use of natural resources that is occurring in this part of the world; and the interaction between these two things leading to social and political instability.”

Nouriel Roubini - The International Financial Crisis and the Euro Zone

Nouriel Roubini, Founder & Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
Moderator Manuel Meneses, Editor on politics and international affairs, RTP
________

Nouriel Roubini, Fundador & Presidente, Roubini Global Economics
Moderador Manuel Meneses, Editor de política e temas internacionais, RTP

Roubini Speech at The NY Forum Africa in Gabon June 2013

Video of Nouriel Roubini's presentation at the NY Forum Africa in Gabon last month: Global outlook and implication for Africa
Click Here to watch the full presentation :>>>>>>>>>>>>

Welcome to the new age of market volatility

Whether the correction in risky assets is temporary or the start of a bear market will depend on several factors. One is whether the Fed will truly exit from QE as quickly as it signaled
read more>>>>>

Nouriel Roubini - Debt Crisis, QE Failing, Slow Growth (26.06.13)

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of Roubini Global Economics warning that the world's economies still face structural problems

Q2 GDP Growth could be lower than 1% , So much for a strong Economy

Nouriel Roubini : Q2 GDP growth could be lower than 1% given weak consumption based on the June retail sales figures. So much for a strong economy - in twitter

Outlook of the world economy - Roubini Global Economics - National Oil Companies Congress 2013

Nouriel Roubini, Founder and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics gives his keynote address on 'What is the outlook of the world economy and what are the implications for oil markets?' at World National Oil Companies Congress 2013. His presentation is followed by an interview with Alexander Poegl, Senior Analyst and Consultant for JBC Energy




The annual World National Oil Companies Congress is where leaders of the world's NOCs meet each other and their partners to debate and decide the future of the oil and gas business.

Africa , A Fascinating Continent

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Leaving soon Africa for the USA after a week in South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Malawi, DRC/Congo and Zimbabwe. A fascinating continent - in twitter

Roubini : Zimbabwe Inflation is now in the single digits

Nouriel Roubini : Zimbabwe had the highest peacetime hyperinflation ever in 2008. But now inflation is in the single digits - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Rwanda is an impressive Economy growing at 8% a year

Nouriel Roubini ‏: "Rwanda is an impressive economy growing at 8% a year albeit from a low base. And Kigali has good urban planning unlike other African cities "
"Rwanda is a fascinating country with a visionary leader and a very competent policy team. It has been growing close to 8% for many years now" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini - Debt Crisis, QE not working, Slow Growth (26.06.13)

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of Roubini Global Economics warning that the world's economies still face structural problems

Roubini ‏: Kenya is an economy with many opportunities and many challenges as well

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Interesting policy meetings in Nairobi. Kenya is an economy with many opportunities and many challenges as well - in twitter

Growth in China and other Emerging Markets is Slowing

Nouriel Roubini : “It was already evident in the first and second quarters of this year that growth in China and other emerging markets was slowing.” - in Slate

Nouriel Roubini on a trip to 6 African countries 5 of which are in Foreign Policy's 2013 Failed States

Nouriel Roubini : "I am off tonite to a trip to six African countries: Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Malawi, Zambia and South Africa. My first visit to the first five"
"5 of the countries I will visit- Kenya Rwanda Uganda Malawi Zambia - are in Foreign Policy's 2013 Failed States Index http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/24/2013_failed_states_interactive_map …" - via his twitter account

Portuguese Crisis unlikely to cause severe instability in Portugal

Roubini Global ‏: Portuguese crisis unlikely to cause severe instability in Portugal, but will increase pressure on periphery bonds http://www.roubini.com/forum#thought.1372860716423 …- in twitter

Nouriel Roubini on Charlie Rose - Debt Crisis, QE not working, Slow Growth (26.06.13)

Nouriel Roubini - Debt Crisis, QE not working, Slow Growth (26.06.13) . Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of Roubini Global Economics warning that the world's economies still face structural problems

ROUBINI : Gold remains John Maynard Keynes's barbarous relic

NOURIEL ROUBINI : "gold remains John Maynard Keynes's 'barbarous relic,' with no intrinsic value and used mainly as a hedge against irrational fear and panic."

Media Spotlight: Crisis Economics by Nouriel Roubini

Only the other week Desert Island Discs host Kirsty Young joined the Queen in directly asking the now former governor of the Bank of England Sir Mervyn King why no one had seen the beginning of the current crisis coming.

King responded that while there had been warnings, primarily there had been a misreading of the market and that all the things that had been seen as dispersing risk, the endless dicing up of debt to markets and so-called sophisticated financial markets, had actually just amplified and spread that risk on a global scale. So when US housing market tanked it dragged down everything else with it.
read more >>>> : http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/features/media-spotlight-crisis-economics-by-nouriel-roubini/1073554.article

Roubini : This massive wave of liquidity searching for yield fueled temporary asset-price reflation around the world

Nouriel Roubini : ...This massive wave of liquidity searching for yield fueled temporary asset-price reflation around the world. But there were two risks to liquidity-driven asset reflation. First, if growth did not recover and surprise on the upside (in which case high asset prices would be justified), eventually slow growth would dominate the levitational effects of liquidity and force asset prices lower, in line with

This brings us to the recent financial market turbulence. It was already evident in the first and second quarters of this year that growth in China and other emerging markets was slowing. This explains the underperformance of commodities and emerging-market equities even before the recent turmoil. But the Fed's recent signals of an early exit from QE – together with stronger evidence of China's slowdown and Chinese, Japanese, and European central bankers' failure to provide the additional monetary easing that investors expected – dealt emerging markets an additional blow.....- in the guardian
weaker economic fundamentals. Second, it was possible that some central banks – namely the Fed – could pull the plug (or hose) by exiting from QE and zero policy rates.

Welcome to the new age of Market Volatility

Nouriel Roubini   
guardian.co.uk, Friday 28 June 2013 15.38 BST  

Until the recent bout of financial-market turbulence, a variety of risky assets (including equities, government bonds, and commodities) had been rallying since last summer. But, while risk aversion and volatility were falling and asset prices were rising, economic growth remained sluggish throughout the world. Now the global economy's chickens may be coming home to roost.

Japan, struggling against two decades of stagnation and deflation, had to resort to Abenomics to avoid a quintuple-dip recession. In the UK, the debate since last summer has focused on the prospect of a triple-dip recession. Most of the eurozone remains mired in a severe recession – now spreading from the periphery to parts of the core. Even in the United States, economic performance has remained mediocre, with growth hovering around 1.5% for the last few quarters.

And now the darlings of the world economy, emerging markets, have proved unable to reverse their own slowdowns. According to the IMF, China's annual GDP growth has slowed to 8%, from 10% in 2010; over the same period, India's growth rate slowed from 11.2% to 5.7%. Russia, Brazil, and South Africa are growing at around 3%, and other emerging markets are slowing as well.
Read More >>>> : http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/28/nouriel-roubini-new-age-of-volatility

Roubini and Bremmer on Charlie Rose: Unveiling New Abnormal

“Our point is that this situation is one that is not a stable equilibrium, is not even a stable disequilibrium. It’s an unstable disequilibrium. Take for example the eurozone. You cannot have just a monetary union without banking, political, economic, fiscal union. Either you move towards more integration or you’re going to have more fragmentation and disintegration. So the situation we face right now in the global economy, same in the eurozone, is of a unstable disequilibrium, therefore a new abnormal, that cannot be sustained.” 

  - Read more at: http://www.economonitor.com/nouriel/2013/06/27/roubini-and-bremmer-on-charlie-rose-unveiling-new-abnormal/#sthash.9bckxZfa.dpuf

De-Risking Revisited

NEW YORK – Until the recent bout of financial-market turbulence, a variety of risky assets (including equities, government bonds, and commodities) had been rallying since last summer. But, while risk aversion and volatility were falling and asset prices were rising, economic growth remained sluggish

throughout the world. Now the global economy’s chickens may be coming home to roost.
Japan, struggling against two decades of stagnation and deflation, had to resort to Abenomics to avoid a quintuple-dip recession. In the United Kingdom, the debate since last summer has focused on the prospect of a triple-dip recession. Most of the eurozone remains mired in a severe recession – now spreading from the periphery to parts of the core. Even in the United States, economic performance has remained mediocre, with growth hovering around 1.5% for the last few quarters.
And now the darlings of the world economy, emerging markets, have proved unable to reverse their own slowdowns. According to the IMF, China’s annual GDP growth has slowed to 8%, from 10% in 2010; over the same period, India’s growth rate slowed from 11.2% to 5.7%. Russia, Brazil, and South Africa are growing at around 3%, and other emerging markets are slowing as well.

This gap between Wall Street and Main Street (rising asset prices, despite worse-than-expected economic performance) can be explained by three factors. First, the tail risks (low-probability, high-impact events) in the global economy – a eurozone breakup, the US going over its fiscal cliff, a hard economic landing for China, a war between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation – are lower now than they were a year ago.

read more :  http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-new-de-risking-cycle-for-financial-markets-by-nouriel-roubini

Nouriel Roubini : Will Tapering expectations be tapered ?

Nouriel Roubini : Will tapering expectations be tapered as growth disappoints, inflation falls and rise in long rates prevents reaching escape velocity? - in twitter

Roubini: Gap between Wall Street and Main Street can be explained by three factors

De-Risking Revisited

NEW YORK – Until the recent bout of financial-market turbulence, a variety of risky assets (including equities, government bonds, and commodities) had been rallying since last summer. But, while risk aversion and volatility were falling and asset prices were rising, economic growth remained sluggish throughout the world. Now the global economy’s chickens may be coming home to roost.
Japan, struggling against two decades of stagnation and deflation, had to resort to Abenomics to avoid a quintuple-dip recession. In the United Kingdom, the debate since last summer has focused on the prospect of a triple-dip recession. Most of the eurozone remains mired in a severe recession – now spreading from the periphery to parts of the core. Even in the United States, economic performance has remained mediocre, with growth hovering around 1.5% for the last few quarters.

And now the darlings of the world economy, emerging markets, have proved unable to reverse their own slowdowns. According to the IMF, China’s annual GDP growth has slowed to 8%, from 10% in 2010; over the same period, India’s growth rate slowed from 11.2% to 5.7%. Russia, Brazil, and South Africa are growing at around 3%, and other emerging markets are slowing as well.

This gap between Wall Street and Main Street (rising asset prices, despite worse-than-expected economic performance) can be explained by three factors. First, the tail risks (low-probability, high-impact events) in the global economy – a eurozone breakup, the US going over its fiscal cliff, a hard economic landing for China, a war between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation – are lower now than they were a year ago.

Read more : http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-new-de-risking-cycle-for-financial-markets-by-nouriel-roubini

Roubini ‏: Gold Bugs strangely silent and quiet. They must be eating crow

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Gold Bugs strangely silent and quiet. They must be eating crow.
For the record, Nouriel said a month ago or so, that gold was about to fall to $1000." by 2015 - in Twitter

Gold : Many Reasons Why The Bubble Has Burst

Nouriel Roubini : "At the peak, gold bugs – a combination of paranoid investors and others with a fear-based political agenda – were happily predicting gold prices going to $2,000, $3,000, and even to $5,000 in a matter of years. There are many reasons why the bubble has burst, and why gold prices are likely to move much lower, toward $1,000 by 2015." - in Finance Townhall

The Gold Bubble Is Deflating

Nouriel Roubini : "The runup in gold prices in recent years – from $800 per ounce in early 2009 to above $1,900 in the autumn of 2011 – had all the features of a bubble. Now, like all asset-price surges that are divorced from the fundamentals of supply and demand, the gold bubble is deflating." - in The Guardian

Gold Prices Are Likely To Move Much Lower

"There are many reasons why the bubble has burst, and why gold prices are likely to move much lower, toward $1,000 by 2015." - in The Guardian

Be Sure Your Seat Belt Is Securely Fastened

Nouriel Roubini : “Be sure your seat belt is securely fastened, because nothing has really come to rest. We have entered the ‘New Abnormal’, a period in which...the wise investor is prepared to be surprised.” - in a recent paper with Ian Bremmer

The FED Liquidity Injections Are Not Creating Credit For The Real Economy

"The Fed’s liquidity injections are not creating credit for the real economy but rather boosting leverage and risk-taking in financial markets." - in Wealth Daily