Roubini : These 5 Emerging Markets are in Real Trouble ...

Many emerging markets are in real trouble. The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa, dubbed the Fragile Five because all have twin fiscal and current account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative or presidential elections this year.

But five other significant countries—Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand—are also vulnerable. Political and electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

BRICS : Emerging Economies May Hit A Thick Wall

"Of course, some of the better-managed emerging-market economies will continue to experience rapid growth and asset outperformance. But many of the Brics, along with some other emerging economies, may hit a thick wall, with growth and financial markets taking a serious beating." - in The Guardian  

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ), Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Warns : These 17 Countries may have Housing Bubbles

Nouriel Roubini warns of 17 countries that may have housing bubbles: washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog… : Roubini doesn't see bubbles in the places where they were most severe in the pre-2008 period. He doesn't mention the United States or Spain or Ireland. Rather, Roubini sees housing prices getting out of whack in quite a few small and mid-sized nations that are well-governed and managed to avoid the worst economic effects of the financial crisis: Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the London metropolitan area in the U.K. He adds some key emerging markets that show the same dynamic: Hong Kong, Singapore, China and Israel, and major urban centers in Turkey, Indonesia, India and Brazil.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini in Peru South America

David Lipton y Nouriel Roubini en entrevista con Gustavo Yamada


Gustavo Yamada, Decano de la Facultad de Economía y Finanzas, entrevistó a los reconocidos ecomistas David Lipton, Primer Subdirector Gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), y Nouriel Roubini, Presidente de Roubini Global Economics con motivo del evento "Economía y futuro de Latinoamérica: la juventud opina" realizado en la Universidad del Pacífico.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini : Africa has come as a positive surprise

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

5 Emerging Markets in Real Trouble are

Many emerging markets are in real trouble. The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa, dubbed the Fragile Five because all have twin fiscal and current account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative or presidential elections this year.
But five other significant countries—Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand—are also vulnerable. Political and electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini Interview in Peru , South America

David Lipton y Nouriel Roubini en entrevista con Gustavo Yamada



Gustavo Yamada, Decano de la Facultad de Economía y Finanzas, entrevistó a los reconocidos ecomistas David Lipton, Primer Subdirector Gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), y Nouriel Roubini, Presidente de Roubini Global Economics con motivo del evento "Economía y futuro de Latinoamérica: la juventud opina" realizado en la Universidad del Pacífico.
 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Economies at Risk of Rising Inflation

Fed has increased the pace of its QE tapering, structural reforms are not likely until after elections; and incumbent governments have been similarly wary of the growth-depressing effects of tightening fiscal, monetary, and credit policies.
Indeed, the failure of many emerging-market governments to tighten macroeconomic policy sufficiently has led to another round of currency depreciation, which risks feeding into higher inflation and jeopardizing these countries ability to finance twin fiscal and external deficits. Chinese growth is unlikely to accelerate and lift commodity prices;


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Canada needs to Weaken The Loonie

I would say if your currency was 10 percent weaker, that would help manufacturing. It might not be conventional wisdom, but at the margin, I would say, keeping your currency weaker right now, it's important.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Warns Canada’s Housing Bubble about to Burst

‘Dr. Doom’ warns Canada’s housing bubble about to burst | It’s the doctor versus the governor in the ongoing debate over the direction of Canada’s housing market. On the pessimistic side there’s
Nouriel Roubini, the man known as “Dr. Doom” for his pessimistic outlook on the global economy. He recently pinpointed Canada’s housing market as a bubble set to pop.
Canada is in the company of other housing markets that Roubini (known as one of the few to correctly predict the U.S. housing crash) says are showing “signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles,” including Switzerland, Sweden, Germany, Australia and New Zealand.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

There is Risk of a hard landing in China

"For starters, there is the risk of a hard landing in China," said Roubini. Each time GDP growth in China slows toward 7 percent, Chinese authorities "double down" on credit infusions that lead to more bad assets and non-performing loans — a situation he noted could spiral beyond control. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : The Korean Won is Overvalued

Nouriel Roubini ‏: A latte to go in my Seoul hotel lobby lounge is $15. So maybe the Won is a little overvalued
After Singapore, Hong Kong, Boao, Beijing I am now in Seoul for policy/business meets. Tokyo next. Should Korea worry about Won strength? - in twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini likes South Korea, Malaysia, Phillipines, HK, Singapore

There are plenty of emerging market economies that have good market fundamentals and international policies.

In Asia, we particularly like South Korea, but even countries like Malaysia, the Philippines, Hong Kong or Singapore are solid.

In Europe, countries like Greece that are covered by the recovery in the eurozone could be attractive, or countries like Poland and the Czech Republic can be good economic opportunities as well. 


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Argentina needs Political Stability before upside

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner of Argentina at this point is a lame duck and cannot run for a new term.
So the next presidential election—whether the winner is going to be Mauricio Macri or Daniel Scioli or any of the other competitors—any of them would likely be more moderate in terms of macro policies and macroeconomic reforms than the current Argentina is.
In spite of the mess, Argentina had a strong rally in its own stock market in local currency terms—and even in foreign currency terms—last year. So there are still economic opportunities there. The macroeconomy can be stabilized. There are huge reserves of shale gas. You could see a surprise on the upside when it’s more clear there will be political and policy changes.


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : The Outlook for Financial Markets, for their Governance and for Finance

 Nouriel Roubini :global economic status quo  The Outlook for Financial Markets, for their governance and for finance.




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Political Unrest is not all Bad News

Nouriel Roubini quote on why political unrest is not all bad news. "A lot of it may lead to better governance and greater commitment to growth-oriented economic policies. In most cases, there is reason to hope that electoral change and political upheaval will give rise to moderate governments whose commitment to market-oriented policies will steadily move their economies in the right direction."


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Warns that even as many threats to the world economy have receded, new ones have quickly emerged

NEW YORK – The world’s economic, financial, and geopolitical risks are shifting. Some risks now have a lower probability – even if they are not fully extinguished. Others are becoming more likely and important.

A year or two ago, six main risks stood at center stage:
· A eurozone breakup (including a Greek exit and loss of access to capital markets for Italy and/or Spain).

CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraph· A fiscal crisis in the United States (owing to further political fights over the debt ceiling and another government shutdown).

 A public-debt crisis in Japan (as the combination of recession, deflation, and high deficits drove up the debt/GDP ratio).

 Deflation in many advanced economies.

 War between Israel and Iran over alleged Iranian nuclear proliferation.

 A wider breakdown of regional order in the Middle East.

These risks have now been reduced. Thanks to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech, new financial facilities to stabilize distressed sovereign debtors, and the beginning of a banking union, the eurozone is no longer on the verge of collapse. In the US, President Barack Obama and Congressional Republicans have for now agreed on a truce to avoid the threat of another government shutdown over the need to raise the debt ceiling.

In Japan, the first two “arrows” of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic strategy – monetary easing and fiscal expansion – have boosted growth and stopped deflation. Now the third arrow of “Abenomics” – structural reforms – together with the start of long-term fiscal consolidation, could lead to debt stabilization (though the economic impact of the coming consumption-tax hike is uncertain).

Similarly, the risk of deflation worldwide has been contained via exotic and unconventional monetary policies: near-zero interest rates, quantitative easing, credit easing, and forward guidance. And the risk of a war between Israel and Iran has been reduced by the interim agreement on Iran’s nuclear program concluded last November. The falling fear premium has led to a drop in oil prices, even if many doubt Iran’s sincerity and worry that it is merely trying to buy time while still enriching uranium.

Though many Middle East countries remain highly unstable, none of them is systemically important in financial terms, and no conflict so far has seriously shocked global oil and gas supplies. But, of course, exacerbation of some of these crises and conflicts could lead to renewed concerns about energy security. More important, as the risks of recent years have receded, six other risks have been growing.

For starters, there is the risk of a hard landing in China. The rebalancing of growth away from fixed investment and toward private consumption is occurring too slowly, because every time annual GDP growth slows toward 7%, the authorities panic and double down on another round of credit-fueled capital investment. This then leads to more bad assets and non-performing loans, more excessive investment in real estate, infrastructure, and industrial capacity, and more public and private debt. By next year, there may be no road left down which to kick the can.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-warns-that-even-as-many-threats-to-the-world-economy-have-receded--new-ones-have-quickly-emerged#8tLUGw9U1a2UWfxH.99







 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Long term Economic role of Hong Kong challenged by the rise of China

Nouriel Roubini ‏: I am in Hong Kong for policy and business meetings. Long term economic role of HK challenged by the rise of China - in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The commercial port of Singapore, one of the busiest in Asia

Nouriel Roubini ‏: The commercial port of Singapore, one of the busiest in Asia at the entrance of the strategic Strait of Malacca - via twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

VIDEO -- Exclusive Interview Nouriel Roubini in Rome - 19th February 2014

Exclusive interview between Nouriel Roubini and Karim Sghaier - 19th February 2014 in Roma
AISM PRESENTS THE FUTURE OF THE EURO ZONE : THE RETURN OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ? 19th February 2014, Palazzo Brancaccio in Roma Exclusive interview between Nouriel Roubini, Doctor in economics Karim Sghaier, Head of sales world, AISM Group

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: QE From ECB Likely Too Little Too Late

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC and a professor at New York University, discusses the U.S. ecomomy and the possibility of the European Central Bank implementing a program of quantitative easing. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse" from the Ambrosetti Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy. (Source: Bloomberg)




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

In Japan Abe boosted Growth and stopped Deflation

In Japan, the first two “arrows” of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic strategy – monetary easing and fiscal expansion – have boosted growth and stopped deflation. Now the third arrow of “Abenomics” – structural reforms – together with the start of long-term fiscal consolidation, could lead to debt stabilization (though the economic impact of the coming consumption-tax hike is uncertain). - in project-syndicate


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini Speech at The AISM Conference in Rome February 19, 2014

Intervention Nouriel Roubini, Doctor of Economics (Roubini Global Economics) at the IALA Conference, February 19, 2014 at Palazzo Brancaccio in Rome.




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini | The changing face of Global Risk

 As during the global financial crisis, investors seem unable to estimate, price, and hedge tail risks properly
by Nouriel Roubini

The world’s economic, financial and geopolitical risks are shifting. Some risks now have a lower probability—even if they are not fully extinguished. Others are becoming more likely and important.

A year or two ago, six main risks stood at centre stage:

l A euro-zone breakup (including a Greek exit and loss of access to capital markets for Italy and/or Spain).

l A fiscal crisis in the US (owing to further political fights over the debt ceiling and another government shutdown).

l A public-debt crisis in Japan (as the combination of recession, deflation, and high deficits drove up the debt/gross domestic product or GDP ratio).

l Deflation in many advanced economies.

l War between Israel and Iran over alleged Iranian nuclear proliferation.

l A wider breakdown of regional order in the Middle East.

These risks have now been reduced. Thanks to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech, new financial facilities to stabilize distressed sovereign debtors, and the beginning of a banking union, the euro zone is no longer on the verge of collapse. In the US, President Barack Obama and Congressional Republicans have for now agreed on a truce to avoid the threat of another government shutdown over the need to raise the debt ceiling.

In Japan, the first two “arrows” of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic strategy—monetary easing and fiscal expansion—have boosted growth and stopped deflation. Now the third arrow of “Abenomics”—structural reforms—together with the start of long-term fiscal consolidation, could lead to debt stabilization (though the economic impact of the coming consumption-tax hike is uncertain).

Similarly, the risk of deflation worldwide has been contained via exotic and unconventional monetary policies. And the risk of a war between Israel and Iran has been reduced by the interim agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme concluded last November.

Though many Middle East countries remain highly unstable, none of them is systemically important in financial terms, and no conflict so far has seriously shocked global oil and gas supplies. More important, as the risks of recent years have receded, six other risks have been growing.

…read more
Source: livemint.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Markets may be underestimating threats to the global economy

 The risk of a hard landing in China, fears over tapering in the US and the ongoing tensions in Crimea show that there is no room for complacency, writes Nouriel Roubini


The world's economic, financial, and geopolitical risks are shifting. Some risks now have a lower probability – even if they are not fully extinguished. Others are becoming more likely and important.
A year or two ago, six main risks stood at centre stage:
• A eurozone breakup (including a Greek exit and loss of access to capital markets for Italy and/or Spain).
• A fiscal crisis in the United States (owing to further political fights over the debt ceiling and another government shutdown).
• A public-debt crisis in Japan (as the combination of recession, deflation, and high deficits drove up the debt/GDP ratio).
• Deflation in many advanced economies.
• War between Israel and Iran over alleged Iranian nuclear proliferation.
• A wider breakdown of regional order in the Middle East.
These risks have now been reduced. Thanks to European Central Bank president Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech, new financial facilities to stabilise distressed sovereign debtors, and the beginning of a banking union, the eurozone is no longer on the verge of collapse. In the US, President Barack Obama and Congressional Republicans have for now agreed on a truce to avoid the threat of another government shutdown over the need to raise the debt ceiling.
In Japan, the first two "arrows" of prime minister Shinzo Abe's economic strategy – monetary easing and fiscal expansion – have boosted growth and stopped deflation. Now the third arrow of "Abenomics" – structural reforms – together with the start of long-term fiscal consolidation, could lead to debt stabilisation (though the economic impact of the coming consumption-tax hike is uncertain).

 read more : http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/02/financial-markets-risks-to-global-economy-nouriel-roubini


  Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Changing Face of Global Risk

NEW YORK – The world’s economic, financial, and geopolitical risks are shifting. Some risks now have a lower probability – even if they are not fully extinguished. Others are becoming more likely and important.

A year or two ago, six main risks stood at center stage:

 A eurozone breakup (including a Greek exit and loss of access to capital markets for Italy and/or Spain).

 A fiscal crisis in the United States (owing to further political fights over the debt ceiling and another government shutdown).

 A public-debt crisis in Japan (as the combination of recession, deflation, and high deficits drove up the debt/GDP ratio).

 Deflation in many advanced economies.

 War between Israel and Iran over alleged Iranian nuclear proliferation.

 A wider breakdown of regional order in the Middle East.

These risks have now been reduced. Thanks to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech, new financial facilities to stabilize distressed sovereign debtors, and the beginning of a banking union, the eurozone is no longer on the verge of collapse. In the US, President Barack Obama and Congressional Republicans have for now agreed on a truce to avoid the threat of another government shutdown over the need to raise the debt ceiling.

In Japan, the first two “arrows” of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic strategy – monetary easing and fiscal expansion – have boosted growth and stopped deflation. Now the third arrow of “Abenomics” – structural reforms – together with the start of long-term fiscal consolidation, could lead to debt stabilization (though the economic impact of the coming consumption-tax hike is uncertain).

Similarly, the risk of deflation worldwide has been contained via exotic and unconventional monetary policies: near-zero interest rates, quantitative easing, credit easing, and forward guidance. And the risk of a war between Israel and Iran has been reduced by the interim agreement on Iran’s nuclear program concluded last November. The falling fear premium has led to a drop in oil prices, even if many doubt Iran’s sincerity and worry that it is merely trying to buy time while still enriching uranium.

Though many Middle East countries remain highly unstable, none of them is systemically important in financial terms, and no conflict so far has seriously shocked global oil and gas supplies. But, of course, exacerbation of some of these crises and conflicts could lead to renewed concerns about energy security. More important, as the risks of recent years have receded, six other risks have been growing.

For starters, there is the risk of a hard landing in China. The rebalancing of growth away from fixed investment and toward private consumption is occurring too slowly, because every time annual GDP growth slows toward 7%, the authorities panic and double down on another round of credit-fueled capital investment. This then leads to more bad assets and non-performing loans, more excessive investment in real estate, infrastructure, and industrial capacity, and more public and private debt. By next year, there may be no road left down which to kick the can.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-warns-that-even-as-many-threats-to-the-world-economy-have-receded--new-ones-have-quickly-emerged#3PwIRmGx4oQLobP9.99

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: Poorly regulated Shadow Banks are becoming bigger

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Poorly regulated shadow banks are becoming bigger "The Growth of Murky Finance - Liberty Street Economics" http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/03/the-growth-of-murky-finance.html#.UzmhrbFoYNE.twitter … via twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Fed will exit only slowly

“The Fed will exit only slowly. I think single digit returns on the US equity this year are warranted. It won’t belike the 25 percent seen last year,” - in moneycontrol.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Potential Growth in the typical Emerging Markets has fallen

“Potential growth in the typical EM has fallen in the last decade by 1 percent to 2 percent. Potential growth will be lower and therefore, one might see the same in the next decade,” - in moneycontrol.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Watch out if the Fed makes this mistake

Nouriel Roubini, the bearish economist known as “Dr. Doom,” warned investors to look out if the Federal Reserve waits too long to hike interest rates, which could consequently cause a huge market bubble. “Last time around it took them two years to normalize from 5 to 5.25, too little too late … they created the biggest housing, real estate credit and equity bubble,” Roubini said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” This time “it’s going to take them up to four years to go from zero to a neutral 4 percent. The risk is that we are going to create another huge bubble in the economy.”



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini on Fed, Latin America, Markets

 March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC and a professor at New York University, talks about the impact of Federal Reserve policy on Latin America and other emerging markets, the outlook for growth in Latin America and investment strategy for the region. Roubini, speaking with Bloomberg's Jose Enrique Arrioja yesterday at an event organized by the Latin Jewish Center in New York, also discusses the outlook for the equity markets in the U.S. and other regions. (Source: Bloomberg)





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Yellen Is Creating another huge Bubble in the Economy

"Last time around it took them two years to normalize from 5 to 5.25, too little too late … they created the biggest housing, real estate credit and equity bubble," Roubini said Tuesday on CNBC's "Closing Bell." This time "it's going to take them up to four years to go from zero to a neutral 4 percent. The risk is that we are going to create another huge bubble in the economy."




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

VIDEO - Nouriel Roubini: Fed risks creating Bubble

Discussing QE and when the Fed will raise interest rates, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics co-founder and chairman.






well, they can now start as they have tapering qe and they'll be done with qe by october. that said, they're going to be on hold for at least six months and what janet yellen meant was not that that was a ceiling, but it was a floor to how much they're going to be on hold before they're going to normalize. they're going to normalize slowly. you think that's a good idea? i think part of the signal by the fed is the correct one. there's, of course, a reason they're going to go too soon. changing the composition you have new now hawksisher, prosser. the composition is rather different. up to four new members of the board, three for sure, maybe four, having new voting members. so janet yellen matters, but under the bernanke, the fed became a collegial democracy not the monarch which it was under greenspan. the genie is out of the bottle. she has to be collegial. she's one vote out of 12, an important one. do you think they could make a mistake here then? well, two types of mistake they could do. one to start too soon and hike too much and that could lead to market consequences like we saw last year when there was a surprise from the fed tapering. another one could occur right now. the other mistake is they could start too late and normalize very slowly not in terms of risk of goods inflation, but asset inflation. last time around it took them two years to normalize from 5 to 25. created the biggest housing, real estate equity bubble. this time around they'll be on hold for another year. they'll normalize very slowly. take them up to four years to go from zero to 4%. the risk is we'll create another huge bubble in the economy. that's a big risk. i was going to say to that point about 4% before we move on, is that the normal policy rate anymore? yes. there's a huge discussion right now as to whether that rate has moved lower because -- it has. neutral fed funds rate used to be 6.5% two cycles ago, then 5.25%. now the fed agrees it's 4%. long-term inflation is going to be 2%. the real feds fund rate is neutral. therefore, the new neutral rate is going to be 4%. none of this is happening in a vacuum. i mean, it's still full speed ahead in europe and in japan with their monetary easing process over there. does it give them a greater advantage as we begin tapering at this time? what do you think of what's going on in europe and in japan right now? i think europe and japan, they need more monetary easing. in japan the consumption tax will slow the growth. markets were expecting the boj would start easing before april. they have not done so. that's why the yen has been strengthening and the stock market has been falling. i'm sure there will be more easing by the boj. the question is not whether, but when. i think it's going to be in july when they see the feks of the consumption tax. the ecb is still on hold. they should have another rate cut, credit easing possibly, even quantitative easing. they will eventually get there but later than the markets are




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: 'Peru must diversify its Economy Gradually'

(Summarily Translated from Spanish @ http://peru21.pe/economia/nouriel-roubini-peru-diversificar-su-economia-gradualmente-2172837)
Famed international economist who predicted the 2008 crisis also recommended to Peru to focus on education and infrastructure.
Nouriel Roubini, known to the world as Dr. Doom for his pessimistic predictions about the global economy, our country has a different , more positive view . Think we are doing things right , but to be considered and start to diversify the economy to avoid falling into the trap of income.
The Turkish economist , doctor in this specialty from the University of Harvard , said this morning during a discussion organized by the University of the Pacific, Peru has grown 6.5 % in the last ten years and has had a good fiscal and monetary management .
However , he said that on the basis of natural resources should gradually head toward diversification . Opportunity in other sectors there is the case of agriculture or fishing , as it has done Chile and gastronomy and especially tourism, Roubini said after commenting that has been in " Inca sites " in Cusco , so you know it.


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Inequality Reduction is Important for Development

Economic growth in emerging markets must be cohesive and reduce inequality.
While market-oriented reforms are necessary, government has a key role to play in providing a social safety net for the poor; maintaining high-quality public services; investing in education, training, health care, infrastructure, and innovation; enforcing competition policies that constrain the power of economic and financial oligopolies; and ensuring genuine equality of opportunity for all.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nassim Taleb What is a Black Swan

 Video used by prof. V.Inglezakis, at Safety Engineering and Risk Management Lectures at Nazarbayev University




Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses the central theme of his bestselling book, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable."

-----

The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought with Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses his book, The Black Swan in relation to predicting the future, learning from the consequences of the unknown, and the power of randomness.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an essayist, belletrist, and researcher only interested in one single topic, chance (particularly extreme and rare events, the "Black Swans" i.e. outliers); but it falls at the intersection of philosophy/epistemology (skepticism; knowledge about the dynamics of history; inferential claims), philosophy/ethics (stoicism facing random events; theories of nonhedonic happiness), mathematical sciences (probability theory, statistical physics), social science/finance (opacity & incomplete information in economics), and cognitive science (the mental biases making us "fooled" by randomness). He mainly derives his intuitions from a 2-decade long and intense practice of derivatives trading ("nondull" activities with plenty of randomness).

Taleb is currently a researcher at London Business School. He the Dean’s Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty University of Massachusetts at Amherst, Fellow in Mathematics in Finance, Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University (since 1999), and research fellow, Wharton School Financial Institutions Center, and Chairman, Empirica LLC.

Taleb held senior trading positions with trading houses in New York and London and operated as a floor trader before founding Empirica LLC. His degrees include an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from the University of Paris. He is the author of Dynamic Hedging, Fooled by Randomness, and The Black Swan.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

In Indonesia, economic nationalism is on the rise

 But uncertainty abounds. In Indonesia, economic nationalism is on the rise, implying a risk that economic policy will follow an inward-looking course. In India, the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, if elected, may or may not be able to implement at the national level the growth-oriented policies that he successfully implemented at the state level in Gujarat. Much will depend on whether he can shed his sectarian attitudes and become a truly inclusive leader. - in  jewishbusinessnews.com



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Turkey blocking access to Twitter : Pathetic anti-democratic action

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Speaking now at the American Turkish Society in NY about Turkey's Financial and Economic Outlook
Pathetic anti-democratic action @ftcompanies: Turkey blocks access to Twitter http://on.ft.com/1hKjgZt  - in Twitter
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

A Change in Government is likely in India and Indonesia

....
According to the positive narrative about emerging markets, industrialization, urbanization, per capita income growth, and the rise of a middle-class consumer society were supposed to boost long-term economic and sociopolitical stability. But in many countries recently wracked by political unrest -- Brazil, Chile, Turkey, India, Venezuela, Argentina, Russia, Ukraine, and Thailand -- it is the urban middle classes that have been manning the barricades. Likewise, urban students and the middle classes spearheaded the Arab Spring, before losing authority to Islamist forces.

This is not a complete surprise: in many countries, working classes and rural farmers have benefited from per capita income increases and a broadening social safety net, while the middle classes feel the pinch from rising inflation, poor public services, corruption, and intrusive government. And now the middle classes tend to be more vocal and better politically organized than in the past, in large part because social media allow them to mobilize faster.

Not all of the recent political unrest is unwelcome; a lot of it may lead to better governance and greater commitment to growth-oriented economic policies. Among the Fragile Five, a change in government is likely in India and Indonesia.  - in todayszaman


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Argentina needs political stability before upside

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner of Argentina at this point is a lame duck and cannot run for a new term.

So the next presidential election—whether the winner is going to be Mauricio Macri or Daniel Scioli or any of the other competitors—any of them would likely be more moderate in terms of macro policies and macroeconomic reforms than the current Argentina is. 

In spite of the mess, Argentina had a strong rally in its own stock market in local currency terms—and even in foreign currency terms—last year. So there are still economic opportunities there. The macroeconomy can be stabilized. There are huge reserves of shale gas. You could see a surprise on the upside when it’s more clear there will be political and policy changes.




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Canada Housing Bubble : not a crash, but certainly a meaningful correction could occur

"I'm not predicting a crash, but certainly a meaningful correction could occur and that would be something that could of course dampen the economy that is already growing moderately," said Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics and an economics professor at New York University's Stern School of Business.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Germany and The Ucraine Crisis

Nouriel Roubini ‏: "Berlin is fully focused today on how to react to the Russian actions in Crimea and Ukraine"
" I am in Berlin today for policy meetings. Important policy debates in Germany on domestic policy issues and European wide ones" - in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Peru -- Roubini Video Interview on Global & Peruvian Economies

NOURIEL ROUBINI (Economista que predijo la crisis del 2008)




Tema: la economía mundial y la peruana, y lo que el Perú debe hacer para diversificar su economía seguir creciendo a tasas altas
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: Political Temperature in France not Pleasant

Nouriel Roubini ‏: I am in Paris for policy and business meetings on a lovely spring-like weather day. Political temperature in France not as pleasing - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Bitcoin Is a Ponzi Scheme

Here are some of Dr. Nouriel Roubini  tweets about Bitcoin   : Apart from a base 4 criminal activities, Bitcoin is not a currency as it is not a unit of account or a means of payments or store of value 

Bitcoin is not a unit of account as no price of goods and services is set in Bitcoin unit nor it ever will. So it isn't a currency 

Bitcoin isn't means of payment as few transactions in Bitcoin. And given its volatility all who accept it convert it right back into $/€/¥ 

Bitcoin isn't a store of value as little wealth is in Bitcoin and no assets in it. Also given price volatility it is a lousy store of value

So Bitcoin isn't a currency. It is btw a Ponzi game and a conduit for criminal/illegal activities. And it isn't safe given hacking of it.

BTCbugs like gold bugs are fanatics who speak of BTC in cult-like religious ways.Like gold bugs they have paranoid conspiracy views on the $




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

VIDEO - Nouriel Roubini Interview in Palazzio Brancaccio Rome, 19 Feb 2014

Interview AISM : Nouriel Roubini et Karim Sghaier, au Palazzio Brancaccio in Rome, le 19 Feb 2014 


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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics