Introducing Draghinomics : A Weaker Euro for a Stronger Europe

NEW YORK – Two years ago, Shinzo Abe’s election as Japan’s prime minister led to the advent of “Abenomics,” a three-part plan to rescue the economy from a treadmill of stagnation and deflation. Abenomics’ three components – or “arrows” – comprise massive monetary stimulus in the form of quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE), including more credit for the private sector; a short-term fiscal stimulus, followed by consolidation to reduce deficits and make public debt sustainable; and structural reforms to strengthen the supply side and potential growth.

It now appears – based on European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s recent Jackson Hole speech – that the ECB has a similar plan in store for the eurozone. The first element of “Draghinomics” is an acceleration of the structural reforms needed to boost the eurozone’s potential output growth. Progress on such vital reforms has been disappointing, with more effort made in some countries (Spain and Ireland, for example) and less in others (Italy and France, to cite just two).

But Draghi now recognizes that the eurozone’s slow, uneven, and anemic recovery reflects not only structural problems, but also cyclical factors that depend more on aggregate demand than on aggregate supply constraints. Thus, measures to increase demand are also necessary.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-supports-ecb-president-mario-draghi-s-plan-to-revive-eurozone-growth#RO6MIoX7gMVWMSIm.99




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini on The ECB Quantitative Easing

 Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- In today's "Morning Must Read," Bloomberg’s Adam Johnson and Tom Keene recap the op-ed pieces and analyst notes providing insight behind today's headlines on "Bloomberg Surveillance.”







Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Abenomics, European-style

Two years ago, Shinzo Abe’s election as Japan’s prime minister led to the advent of “Abenomics”, a three-part plan to rescue the economy from a treadmill of stagnation and deflation. Abenomics’ three components—or “arrows”—comprise massive monetary stimulus in the form of quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE), including more credit for the private sector; a short-term fiscal stimulus, followed by consolidation to reduce deficits and make public debt sustainable; and structural reforms to strengthen the supply side and potential growth. It now appears—based on European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi’s recent Jackson Hole speech—that ECB has a similar plan in store for the euro zone. The first element of “Draghinomics” is an acceleration of the structural reforms needed to boost the euro zone’s potential output growth. Progress on such vital reforms has been disappointing, with more effort made in some countries (Spain and Ireland, for example) and less in others (Italy and France, to cite just two). But Draghi now recognizes that the euro zone’s slow, uneven, and anaemic recovery reflects not only structural problems, but also cyclical factors that depend more on aggregate demand than on aggregate supply constraints. Thus, measures to increase demand are also necessary.



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Sees Start of Quantitative Easing in ECB Action

 Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg’s Betty Liu reports that New York University professor Nouriel Rubini has called yesterday’s action by the European Central Bank the start of quantitative easing. She speaks in today’s “Movers and Shakers” on “In The Loop.”





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: ECB Policy to Have Significant Impact Over Time

 Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- In today's "Morning Must Read," Bloomberg’s Adam Johnson and Tom Keene recap the op-ed pieces and analyst notes providing insight behind today's headlines on "Bloomberg Surveillance.”





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Sees Weaker Euro Amid ECB's Policy Easing

 Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC and a professor at New York University, discusses the European Central Bank's policy measures announced yesterday and its expected impact on bond and currency markets. He talks with Mark Barton from the Ambrosetti Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy, on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)







Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

From Japan’s Abenomics to Europe’s Draghinomics

by Nouriel Roubini, September 03 2014, 12:18

TWO years ago, Shinzo Abe’s election as Japan’s prime minister led to the advent of "Abenomics", a three-part plan to rescue the economy from a treadmill of stagnation and deflation.

Abenomics’s three components — or "arrows" — comprise huge monetary stimulus in the form of quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE), including more credit for the private sector; a short-term fiscal stimulus, followed by consolidation to reduce deficits and make public debt sustainable; and structural reforms to strengthen the supply side and potential growth.

It now appears — based on European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi’s recent Jackson Hole speech — that the ECB has a similar plan in store for the eurozone. The first element of "Draghinomics" is an acceleration of the structural reforms needed to boost the potential output growth. But Draghi recognises that the eurozone’s slow, uneven and anaemic recovery reflects not only structural problems, but cyclical factors that depend more on aggregate demand than on aggregate supply constraints. Thus, measures to increase demand are also necessary.

Here, then, is Draghinomics’s second arrow: to reduce the drag on growth from fiscal consolidation while maintaining lower deficits and greater debt sustainability. There is some flexibility in how fast the fiscal target can be achieved, especially now that a lot of front-loaded austerity has occurred and markets are less nervous about the sustainability of public debt.

Moreover, while the eurozone periphery may need more consolidation, parts of the core — say, Germany — could pursue a temporary fiscal expansion (lower taxes and more public investment) to stimulate domestic demand and growth. And a eurozone-wide infrastructure-investment programme could boost demand while reducing supply-side bottlenecks.

The third element of Draghinomics — similar to the QQE of Abenomics — will be quantitative and credit easing in the form of purchases of public bonds and measures to boost private-sector credit growth. Credit easing will start soon with targeted long-term refinancing operations. When regulatory constraints are overcome, the ECB will also begin purchasing private assets.

Now Draghi has signalled that, with the eurozone one or two shocks away from deflation, the inflation outlook may soon justify quantitative easing (QE) like that conducted by the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England: outright large-scale purchases of eurozone members’ sovereign bonds. Indeed, it is likely that QE will begin by early next year.

Quantitative and credit easing could affect the outlook for eurozone inflation and growth through several transmission channels. Shorter-and longer-term bond yields in core and periphery countries — and spreads in the periphery — may decline further, lowering the cost of capital for the public and private sectors. The value of the euro may fall, boosting competitiveness and net exports. Eurozone stock markets could rise, leading to positive wealth effects.

Some more hawkish ECB officials worry QE will lead to moral hazard by weakening governments’ commitment to austerity and structural reforms. But in a situation of near-deflation and near-recession, the ECB should do whatever is necessary, regardless of these risks.

Moreover, QE may actually reduce moral hazard. If QE and looser short-term fiscal policies boost demand, growth and employment, governments may be more likely to implement politically painful structural reforms and long-term fiscal consolidation.

Draghi correctly points out that QE would be ineffective unless governments implement faster supply-side structural reforms and the right balance of short-term fiscal flexibility and medium-term austerity.

In Japan, although QQE and short-term fiscal stimulus boosted growth and inflation in the short run, slow progress on the third arrow of structural reforms, along with the effects of the current fiscal consolidation, are now taking a toll on growth.

As in Japan, all three arrows of Draghinomics must be launched to ensure that the eurozone gradually returns to competitiveness, growth, job creation and medium-term debt sustainability. By the end of this year, it is to be hoped, the ECB will start to do its part by implementing quantitative and credit easing.

• Roubini is chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Project Syndicate, 2014



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

What Japan Abe needs to do

In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has made significant headway in overcoming almost two decades of deflation, thanks to monetary easing and fiscal expansion.
The main uncertainties stem from the coming increase in the consumption tax and slow implementation of the third "arrow" of "Abenomics," namely structural reforms and trade liberalization.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Mario Draghi to bring Abenomics to Europe

"It now appears – based on European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's recent Jackson Hole speech – that the ECB has a similar plan in store for the euro zone," Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics wrote in an op-ed published on Project Syndicate's website on Sunday, referring to "Abenomics" – Abe's economic revival plan consisting of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Abenomics, European-Style

NOURIEL ROUBINI

NEW YORK – Two years ago, Shinzo Abe’s election as Japan’s prime minister led to the advent of “Abenomics,” a three-part plan to rescue the economy from a treadmill of stagnation and deflation. Abenomics’ three components – or “arrows” – comprise massive monetary stimulus in the form of quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE), including more credit for the private sector; a short-term fiscal stimulus, followed by consolidation to reduce deficits and make public debt sustainable; and structural reforms to strengthen the supply side and potential growth.

It now appears – based on European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s recent Jackson Hole speech – that the ECB has a similar plan in store for the eurozone. The first element of “Draghinomics” is an acceleration of the structural reforms needed to boost the eurozone’s potential output growth. Progress on such vital reforms has been disappointing, with more effort made in some countries (Spain and Ireland, for example) and less in others (Italy and France, to cite just two).

But Draghi now recognizes that the eurozone’s slow, uneven, and anemic recovery reflects not only structural problems, but also cyclical factors that depend more on aggregate demand than on aggregate supply constraints. Thus, measures to increase demand are also necessary.

Here, then, is Draghinomics’ second arrow: to reduce the drag on growth from fiscal consolidation while maintaining lower deficits and greater debt sustainability. There is some flexibility in how fast the fiscal target can be achieved, especially now that a lot of front-loaded austerity has occurred and markets are less nervous about the sustainability of public debt. Moreover, while the eurozone periphery may need more consolidation, parts of the core – say, Germany – could pursue a temporary fiscal expansion (lower taxes and more public investment) to stimulate domestic demand and growth. And a eurozone-wide infrastructure-investment program could boost demand while reducing supply-side bottlenecks.

Read more at : http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-supports-ecb-president-mario-draghi-s-plan-to-revive-eurozone-growth#ZLydQHxPuuxleLvx.99


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Italy is in Crisis

"if the situation worsens, which now seems hardly impossible, the consequences could be very damaging for Italy. "Our most probable scenario is elections in early 2014 but we do not exclude even sooner than that.

The markets are reasoning in a similar way. If there is no solution, the spread will rise to 300 (3.0 percentage points) in a few days and the calm period for the Italian stock market will come to an end. Bank stocks will be particularly hard hit and credit costs will continue rising. The sooner the elections, the worst the damage for bonds." - in brecorder

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Markets in a small storm

The financial turmoil that hit emerging-market economies last spring, following the US Federal Reserve’s “taper tantrum” over its quantitative-easing (QE) policy, has returned with a vengeance. This time, the trigger was a confluence of several events: a currency crisis in Argentina, where the authorities stopped intervening in the forex markets to prevent the loss of foreign reserves; weaker economic data from China; and persistent political uncertainty and unrest in Turkey, Ukraine, and Thailand.

This mini perfect storm in emerging markets was soon transmitted, via international investors’ risk aversion, to advanced economies’ stock markets. But the immediate trigger for these pressures should not be confused with their deeper causes: Many emerging markets are in real trouble.

The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa – dubbed the “Fragile Five,” because all have twin fiscal and current-account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative and/or presidential elections this year. But five other significant countries – Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand – are also vulnerable. Political and/or electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.

Then, there are the over-hyped BRICS countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the United States this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) GDP rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries’ potential growth.

The largest of the BRICS, China, faces additional risk stemming from a credit-fueled investment boom, with excessive borrowing by local governments, state-owned enterprises, and real-estate firms severely weakening the asset portfolios of banks and shadow banks. Most credit bubbles this large have ended up causing a hard economic landing, and China’s economy is unlikely to escape unscathed, particularly as reforms to rebalance growth from high savings and fixed investment to private consumption are likely to be implemented too slowly, given the powerful interests aligned against them.

Via - http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-explains-why-many-previously-fast-growing-economies-suddenly-find-themselves-facing-strong-headwinds





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Countdown to Draghinomics

Nouriel Roubini : My new paper: Countdown to ‘Draghinomics’ (that mimics the 3 arrows of Abenomics). roubini.com/analysis/188930.php … … … When will the ECB do QE? $ - in twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

In Bahrain Water more costly than Gasoline

Nouriel Roubini : In Bahrain water more costly than gasoline. Gasoline subsidized. Water costly as imported or produced with energy intensive desalinization- in twitter



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China Weakness a Risk to Advanced Economies

The deep causes of last year’s turmoil in emerging markets have not disappeared. The risk of a hard landing in China poses a serious threat to emerging Asia, commodity exporters around the world, and even advanced economies.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini, The long-term aspirations of Vladimir Putin

Originally posted in Romanian @ http://www.cotidianul.ro/nouriel-roubini-despre-aspiratiile-pe-termen-lung-ale-lui-vladimir-putin-245164/  and translated below :

Unfortunately, the USA and EU sanctions that have been imposed only Russia could have the effect of reinforcing the beliefs of Putin and his advisers as Slavophiles nationalists that Russia's future lies not only in the West but also in an integration project different in the East, writes Nouriel Roubini, in an article published by Les Echos.

Escalating conflict in Ukraine, the Western-backed government and separatists backed by Russia, raises a fundamental question: what are the long term aspirations of the Kremlin? While the objective of Russian President Vladimir Putin was the first phase in a limited control over the Crimea and the preservation of a certain influence on Ukrainian business, long-term ambition is shown to be more courageous.

This ambition is increasingly evident. In a famous statement, Putin said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest catastrophe of the twentieth century. Thus, his goal is to rebuild long-term entity, in one form or another by means of a supranational union consisting of Member States, like the European Union.
Great Eurasian Economic Union

A suction least surprising: whatever the problem its decline, Russia is considered a great power surrounded by buffer states. Between countries, Russia Imperial was able to expand. During Bolshevik Russia came to build the Soviet Union created a sphere of influence which included much of Central and Eastern Europe. And behold, from now on, under the equally autocratic Putin, Russia is trying to establish progressively a large Eurasian Economic Union (UEE).


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Falling potential growth, post-crisis frictions have pulled the U.S. neutral policy rate from above 4% to below 3.7%

Falling potential growth, post-crisis frictions have pulled the U.S. neutral policy rate from above 4% to below 3.7%. http://www.roubini.com/analysis/188887 - in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China's lower PMI is unlikely to foreshadow a meaningful slowdown

First, the degree of fall in the flash PMI is small in relation to the variance in the series, though the PMI does tend to lead industrial production by a month or two (see Figure). Second, the Chinese interbank market and its bond market do not reflect credit tightness. Read More: http://www.roubini.com/thought/1408703238995


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole- more balanced than dovish

Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole- more balanced than dovish http://www.roubini.com/forum#thought.1408727284106 … - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

U.S. Economy Growth Is Low, Inflation Is Low, Unemployment Is High

The economic activity is recovering very anemically. Growth is low, inflation is low, unemployment is high. That is the reason why we have zero policy rates, we have QE, credit easing.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Skilled worker vs Blue Collar worker

Roubini says the Fed is caught in a position where it needs to do more to help the economy, but at the same time, it's beginning to create new bubbles. He referred to what he sees now as "frothiness," pointing in particular to housing, junk bonds, and, potentially, bitcoins. But in two or three years time, Roubini says we could have a problem that leads to another financial crisis. "Capital will do well, and skilled labor will do well. Blue collar workers, not as much."


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

What Japan Abe needs to do

What Japan Abe needs to do : In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has made significant headway in overcoming almost two decades of deflation, thanks to monetary easing and fiscal expansion. The main uncertainties stem from the coming increase in the consumption tax and slow implementation of the third "arrow" of "Abenomics," namely structural reforms and trade liberalization.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini Says Invest in Cash

Nouriel Roubini Says Invest in Cash avoid risky assets , better be safe than sorry ....




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

US to grow faster than emerging markets 2014

The global economy will grow faster in 2014, while tail risks will be lower. But, with the possible exception of the US, growth will remain anaemic in most advanced economies, and emerging-market fragility—including China’s uncertain efforts at economic rebalancing—could become a drag on global growth in subsequent years.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Gold has no Intrinsic Value

Gold remains John Maynard Keynes’s ‘barbarous relic,’ with no intrinsic value and used mainly as a hedge against mostly irrational fear and panic.



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Market Outlook: Gravitational Forces & Levitational Forces

"It could go on for another year or two. Of course, there are two forces. Growth is slow. Earnings growth is also slowing down. Top line and bottom line are not as good as they used to be, but margins are high. They could correct, somehow, over time.
But you have the gravitational forces of slow economy leading eventually to correction, but then the levitational forces of QEs, zero policy rates, more money coming in the market – not just from the U.S., but from other economies – it's going to levitate asset prices.
So, as I pointed out, this might lead to a generalized credit and equity and asset bubble in the next year or two, followed by a crash. But for the next year or so, as long as the economy grows 1.5-2 percent, and you have easy money, this market can go higher. "- in Business Insider

Related ETFs: SPDR SP 500 ETF (SPY), Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Benefits Of The U.S. Oil Production Boom

"The domestic benefits of the U.S. oil production boom are well documented — everything from the creation of high-paying jobs to sending less money to foreign oil producers.
Less well appreciated are the geopolitical benefits. U.S. oil production has already paid foreign policy dividends in at least one vital area: It has paved the way for stronger sanctions on Iran by helping to keep the global oil market well-supplied and minimizing oil price volatility.
This development is timely and instructive."




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Italy`s Crisis

"if the situation worsens, which now seems hardly impossible, the consequences could be very damaging for Italy. "Our most probable scenario is elections in early 2014 but we do not exclude even sooner than that.
The markets are reasoning in a similar way. If there is no solution, the spread will rise to 300 (3.0 percentage points) in a few days and the calm period for the Italian stock market will come to an end. Bank stocks will be particularly hard hit and credit costs will continue rising. The sooner the elections, the worst the damage for bonds." - in brecorder
Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI)



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Karl Marx oversold Socialism, but he was Right

The problem is not new. Karl Marx oversold socialism, but he was right in claiming that globalization, unfettered financial capitalism, and redistribution of income and wealth from labor to capital could lead capitalism to self-destruct. As he argued, unregulated capitalism can lead to regular bouts of over-capacity, under-consumption, and the recurrence of destructive financial crises, fueled by credit bubbles and asset-price booms and busts.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

France Is Slipping Into A Recession

"France is slipping into a recession that complicates the austerity & reform agenda." - in Roubini`s Official Twitter
Related ETFs: iShares MSCI France Index ETF (EWQ)


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

U.S. Inequality Sharply Rising Again

"U.S. inequality sharply rising again above Gilded Age levels: Top 1% take biggest income slice on record" - in Twitter
Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Prophets of the 2008 Crisis are Sounding the Alarm

Die Propheten der Krise von 2008 schlagen Alarm

http://www.handelszeitung.ch/konjunktur/die-propheten-der-krise-von-2008-schlagen-alarm-650965

Few experts warned early and accurate before the financial crisis of 2008 - Raghuram Rajan, the Topökonomen, Robert Shiller and William White are three of them. Now they fear again big problems. There are acclaimed financial expert, who live by the crisis. Nouriel Roubini is one of them. The New York economist applies some observations as the most important Warner before the 2008 financial crisis, the media compete fiercely for him. But Roubini's work has method: Since late 2009, he predicted in addition to a long recession of the U.S. economy and the imminent collapse of the euro-zone, the fall in stock markets of Eastern Europe and a hard landing in China. None of this occurred to the present day. According to experts give the predictions of Dr. Doom less and less attention. There are more sober observers warn rare - but then find their statements even more hearing.

Nur wenige Experten warnten früh und präzise vor der Finanzkrise 2008 – die Topökonomen Raghuram Rajan, Robert Shiller und William White sind drei von ihnen. Nun befürchten sie erneut grosse Probleme.

Börsenangst
Es gibt gefeierte Finanzexperten, die leben von der Krise. Nouriel Roubini ist so einer. Der New Yorker Ökonom gilt einigen Beobachtungen als wichtigster Warner vor der Finanzkrise 2008. Die Medien reissen sich um ihn. Doch Roubinis Wirken hat Methode: Seit Ende 2009 prophezeite er neben einer langen Rezession der US-Wirtschaft auch den unmittelbar bevorstehenden Zerfall der Euro-Zone, den Einbruch der Aktienmärkte Osteuropas und eine harte Landung Chinas. Nichts von alledem trat bis zum heutigen Tage ein.
Entsprechend schenken Kenner den Vorhersagen von Dr. Doom immer weniger Beachtung. Es gibt nüchternere Beobachter, die seltener warnen – deren Aussagen dann aber umso mehr Gehör finden.




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini Global Economic Status Quo

 The Outlook for Financial Markets, for their governance and for finance.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Russia & The BRICS creating Alternatives to the IMF & The World Bank

 

Recent events have further weakened market-oriented, Western-leaning factions in Russia and strengthened the state-capitalist, nationalist factions, who are now pushing for faster establishment of the EAU. In particular, the tension with Europe and the United States over Ukraine will shift Russia’s energy and raw-material exports – and the related pipelines – toward Asia and China.

Likewise, Russia and its BRICS partners (Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) are creating a development bank that is to serve as an alternative to the Western-controlled International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Revelations of electronic surveillance by the US may lead Russia – and other illiberal states – to restrict Internet access and create their own nationally controlled data networks. There is even talk of Russia and China creating an alternative international payment system to replace the SWIFT system, which the US and Europe can use to impose financial sanctions against Russia.

Creating a full EAU – one that is gradually less tied to the West by trade, financial, economic, payments, communications, and political links – may be a pipe dream. Russia’s lack of reform and adverse demographic trends imply low potential growth and insufficient financial resources to create the fiscal and transfer union that is needed to bring other countries in.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-maps-out-the-kremlin-s-plan-for-a-re-divided-world#3Xff8x7HWkzrV1c2.99

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

BRICS Economies May Hit A Thick Wall

"Of course, some of the better-managed emerging-market economies will continue to experience rapid growth and asset outperformance. But many of the Brics, along with some other emerging economies, may hit a thick wall, with growth and financial markets taking a serious beating." - in The Guardian
Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ), Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

These 5 Emerging Markets are in real Trouble

Many emerging markets are in real trouble. The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa, dubbed the Fragile Five because all have twin fiscal and current account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative or presidential elections this year.
But five other significant countries—Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand—are also vulnerable. Political and electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Putin is ambitious, he may remain in power for decades to come

But Putin is ambitious, and – like other autocrats in Central Asian nations – he may remain in power for decades to come. And, like it or not, even a Russia that lacks the dynamism needed to succeed in manufacturing and the industries of the future will remain a commodity-producing superpower.

Revisionist powers like Russia, China, and Iran appear ready to confront the global economic and political order that the US and the West built after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But now one of these revisionists powers – Russia – is pushing ahead aggressively to recreate a near-empire and a sphere of influence.

Unfortunately, the sanctions that the US and Europe are imposing on Russia, though necessary, may merely reinforce the conviction among Putin and his nationalist Slavophile advisers that Russia’s future lies not in the West, but in a separate integration project in the East. US President Barack Obama says that this is not the beginning of a new Cold War; current trends may soon suggest otherwise.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-maps-out-the-kremlin-s-plan-for-a-re-divided-world#geHwqH4FMYJH4q8L.99



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

One on One With Nouriel Roubini What Could Possibly Go Wrong

What we need to understand is, one, that there are market failures; and two, that there are things like asset bubbles and irrational exuberance. There are periods of booms, bubbles, and manias. These things, if left to themselves, can lead to crashes, to busts, to panics.




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Russia’s Eurasian Vision By Roubini

NEW YORK – The escalating conflict in Ukraine between the Western-backed government and Russian-backed separatists has focused attention on a fundamental question: What are the Kremlin’s long-term objectives? Though Russian President Vladimir Putin’s immediate goal may have been limited to regaining control of Crimea and retaining some influence in Ukrainian affairs, his longer-term ambition is much bolder.

That ambition is not difficult to discern. Putin once famously observed that the Soviet Union’s collapse was the greatest catastrophe of the twentieth century. Thus, his long-term objective has been to rebuild it in some form, perhaps as a supra-national union of member states like the European Union.

This goal is not surprising: declining or not, Russia has always seen itself as a great power that should be surrounded by buffer states. Under the Czars, Imperial Russia extended its reach over time. Under the Bolsheviks, Russia built the Soviet Union and a sphere of influence that encompassed most of Central and Eastern Europe. And now, under Putin’s similarly autocratic regime, Russia plans to create, over time, a vast Eurasian Union.

While the EAU is still only a customs union, the European Union’s experience suggests that a successful free-trade area leads over time to broader economic, monetary, and eventually political integration. Russia’s goal is not to create another North American Free Trade Agreement; it is to create another EU, with the Kremlin holding all of the real levers of power. The plan has been clear: Start with a customs union – initially Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan – and add most of the other former Soviet republics. Indeed, now Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are in play.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-maps-out-the-kremlin-s-plan-for-a-re-divided-world#dQftPbhcKlJwCkt4.99








Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini & Jason Cummins : Keeping Up with Change

These celebrated economists are known for sensing crucial signals before the rest of us, including those who occupy the seats of corporate and political power. We'll hear their contrasting views of the paths the global economy and capital markets will take in the coming year. Where do the trends point? Healthy growth or renewed solvency risk, and will either scenario unfold incrementally or fast and furiously? Is there life after central bank heroics? Will Western economies catch up with the go-go markets of recent years, or will the markets fall back to meet so-so conditions? How do sovereigns manage their debt-to-GDP ratios, and can policymakers extend their fiscal and monetary inventiveness? EMs and QE, bubbles and bailouts, profit growth and balance sheet cash, Roubini and Cummins will discuss whether and how the ends will meet in the world economy.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Political unrest brings change

Nouriel Roubini on the plus points of Political Unrest
"A lot of it may lead to better governance and greater commitment to growth-oriented economic policies"


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini very Optimistic about The Turkish Economy

Turkish TV SPECIAL INTERVIEW WITH Nouriel Roubini


Economist Nouriel Roubini Turkey are very optimistic for the economy. Bloomberg HT research, answering questions from the desk of Bu İyigündoğdu Roubini, including Turkey, where 6 with the economic performance of developing countries argued that the BRICS Ulek leave behind. 01.04.2013
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

How to use Roubini's Country Analysis Tool

Using Roubini Country Insights
Learn how to use Roubini's country analysis tool - Country Insights - on roubini.com




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini & Niall Ferguson : The Economic Crisis and How to Deal with It

With Senator Bill Bradley, Niall Ferguson, Paul Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, George Soros, and Robin Wells; moderated by Jeff Madrick and introduced by Robert S.

Senator Bill Bradley, Niall Ferguson, Paul Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, George Soros, and Robin Wells; moderated by Jeff Madrick and introduced by Robert Silver.

United States policy responses to the late-2000s recession explores legislation, banking industry and market volatility within retirement plans. The Federal .

On the evening of Jan. 27, Kareem Serageldin walked out of his Times Square apartment with his brother and an old Yale roommate and took off on the four-hour drive to Philipsburg, a small.




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The ECB will eventually move to a Negative Deposit Rate

Nouriel Roubini: In October we at RGE also made an out of consensus call that the ECB will eventually move to a negative deposit rate and even to QE And now senior ECB officials are openly talking about a negative deposit rate and about QE as options to fight low inflation/ strong euro - in Twitter




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel praises Twitter

Nouriel Roubini praises Twitter : Among the social media - I've tried them all - Facebook is a bit of a game, but Twitter is a productivity tool. I use it regularly and I'm addicted to it.




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics