Roubini on Russia & Emerging Markets in 2015

Nouriel Roubini, American economist (Английская версия)





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Russia’s Eurasian Vision By Roubini

NEW YORK – The escalating conflict in Ukraine between the Western-backed government and Russian-backed separatists has focused attention on a fundamental question: What are the Kremlin’s long-term objectives? Though Russian President Vladimir Putin’s immediate goal may have been limited to regaining control of Crimea and retaining some influence in Ukrainian affairs, his longer-term ambition is much bolder.

That ambition is not difficult to discern. Putin once famously observed that the Soviet Union’s collapse was the greatest catastrophe of the twentieth century. Thus, his long-term objective has been to rebuild it in some form, perhaps as a supra-national union of member states like the European Union.

This goal is not surprising: declining or not, Russia has always seen itself as a great power that should be surrounded by buffer states. Under the Czars, Imperial Russia extended its reach over time. Under the Bolsheviks, Russia built the Soviet Union and a sphere of influence that encompassed most of Central and Eastern Europe. And now, under Putin’s similarly autocratic regime, Russia plans to create, over time, a vast Eurasian Union.

While the EAU is still only a customs union, the European Union’s experience suggests that a successful free-trade area leads over time to broader economic, monetary, and eventually political integration. Russia’s goal is not to create another North American Free Trade Agreement; it is to create another EU, with the Kremlin holding all of the real levers of power. The plan has been clear: Start with a customs union – initially Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan – and add most of the other former Soviet republics. Indeed, now Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are in play.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-maps-out-the-kremlin-s-plan-for-a-re-divided-world#dQftPbhcKlJwCkt4.99








Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Russia unlikely to deescalate

Roubini : Russia unlikely to deescalate, expect some reconciliatory steps, but tensions continuing, plus more sanctions - via Twitter



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are over-hyped BRICS countries

Then, there are the over-hyped BRICS countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the United States this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) GDP rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries’ potential growth. - in www.project-syndicate.org


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Low Growth: Brazil, Russia, China & South Africa

"Brazil's GDP grew by only 1% last year, and may not grow by more than 2% this year, with its potential growth barely above 3%. Russia's economy may grow by barely 2% this year, with potential growth also at around 3%, despite oil prices being around $100 a barrel. India had a couple of years of strong growth recently (11.2% in 2010 and 7.7% in 2011) but slowed to 4% in 2012. China's economy grew by 10% a year for the last three decades, but slowed to 7.8% last year and risks a hard landing. And South Africa grew by only 2.5% last year and may not grow faster than 2% this year." - an excerpt from the article Is the emerging market boom over?

Roubini : Inflation in Russia could reach double digits

Economist Nouriel Roubini who is attending Russia Forum says inflation in Russia could reach double digits this year a and that the government needs to push forward with reforms to tackle the problem.

Roubini : Russia needs structural reforms to cut Inflation

Economist Nouriel Roubini whoas attending Russia Forum 2011 says inflation in Russia could reach double digits this year a and that the government needs to push forward with reforms to tackle the problem.

Brazil, India, Russia Slowing Down too

Nouriel Roubini :....Meanwhile, Brazil, India, Russia, and other emerging economies are playing the same game. Many have not adjusted as advanced economies’ weakness reduces the room for export-led growth; and many delayed structural reforms needed to boost private sector development and productivity growth, while embracing a model of state capitalism that will soon reveal its limits. So the recent slowdown of growth in emerging markets is not just cyclical, owing to weak growth or outright recession in advanced economies; it is also structural. - excerpt from project syndicate

Rachel Ziemba, Expects Relatively Weak 4.3% Growth for Russia

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Rachel Ziemba, a senior analyst at Roubini Global Economics, discusses the investment environment in Russia and the outlook for the nation's economy. Ziemba speaks with Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television's "Fast Forward." (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini : Russia Needs a Crisis to Change

Russian Economy is a one commodity economy , It would take a sharp fall in the price of oil or another crisis to change Russia's economic system for the long term, Nouriel Roubini, economist and New York University Professor, told CNBC Thursday.