Nouriel Roubini on Cavuto Fox Business News May 12, 2010

Nouriel Roubini: Greece is The Tip of the Iceberg

Nouriel Roubini : In my view what's happening in Greece is just the tip of an iceberg , ...we socialized these private losses , now we have large budget deficits in Europe in Japan in the United States the bond market vigilantes are waking up in Greece in Portugal in Spain at some point they are going to wake up in UK in Japan in the United States we are running a trillion and half deficit it is obviously over time not sustainable ....
America's debt is unsustainable says Nouriel Roubini , for now the FED can keep interest rates at Zero and the rest of the world is financing us but this situation cannot last forever

May 12, 2010 — NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini on how to prevent the debt crisis in Greece from happening in the U.S.

Roubini China Risks Significant Economic Slowdown

Roubini Says China Risks `Significant' Economic Slowdown

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- New York University professor Nouriel Roubini talks with Bloomberg's Susan Li about the outlook for China's economy, and risks of an asset "bubble" developing in the country. Roubini, speaking from New York, also discusses the $1 trillion European loan package to stop the sovereign debt crisis, and the debate over financial regulatory overhaul. (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini on The $1 Trillion EU rescue Package to Greece

Roubini Discusses $1 Trillion European Loan Package

Nouriel Roubini : The IMF is expecting three more years of recession in Greece most likely you will have recession in Spain in Portugal in Italy and the question is political again : can you afford have several years of recession and deflation there may be at some point a backlash against it three of these countries have also lost competitiveness in the last few years , they are losing market shares to China and Asia because their exports are labor intensive then for a decade their wages are growing faster than the productivity , and the final nail in the coffin was the appreciation of the Euro between 2000 and 2008 , so even if they stabilize their public debt how are they going to reduce their larger currency deficit..., it is going to be ugly in terms of fiscal austerity in terms of structural forms in terms of anemic growth if not recession therefore there is money on the table but it is all conditional on doing very painful sacrifices , I feel that some countries like Greece are not going to be able to do it , that eventually they are going to have a restructuring of public debt .....
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- New York University professor Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC, talks with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Matt Miller about the $1 trillion European loan package to help stop the sovereign-debt crisis. (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini Sees risk of contagion spreading to US

Nouriel Roubini on the Greece bailout

May 09, 2010 — European Union ministers agree to emergency aid worth 500 billion euro to prevent Greece's debt crisis causing turmoil in other euro zone states.

Roubini : it will be at an anemic recovery and at worse a Double Dip Recovery

Nouriel Roubini: Rapid economic recovery unlikely

Credit markets have recovered, although they still reflect massive government financial intervention. The financial panic of 2008 and 2009 has passed, though now bank failures are notably increasing. The net worth of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is dropping, and estimates for its deficit are growing, but its obligations are ultimately U.S. Treasury obligations. Average house prices seem to be stabilizing, but commercial real estate prices are dropping. Huge losses from the deflation of the great twenty-first-century bubble have been recognized or realized, and though more remain, financial markets have regained their appetite for risk.

At this event, our expert Deflating Bubble panel defined the lessons of the whole twenty-first-century financial experience and made related recommendations for future financial policy. Speakers included AEI economists Desmond Lachman and John H. Makin; New York University professor of economics Nouriel Roubini; R. Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics; and Thomas Zimmerman, managing director at UBS Investment Bank. AEI resident fellow Alex J. Pollock moderated.

China Runs $7B Trade Deficit

RGE Roubini Global Economics Senior Analyst Rachel Ziemba Chinas trade deficit and its impact on efforts to pressure the country to revalue its currency.

Roubini on The Dow plunge and massive sell-offs

Discussing yesterday's stock plunge, with Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank; James Paulsen, Wells Capital Mgmt.; and Nouriel Roubini, RGEMonitor.com
Discussing the fate of the markets and the impact the Greek contagion is likely to have on the rest of the world, with Nouriel Roubini, RGEmonitor.com.

Roubini Global Economics Arnab Das Sees signs of overheating in India

The Indian markets have been trading in the red for the past few days on concerns that the European debt crisis is spreading and monetary tightening by China.

Roubini on The Dow Crash and Greece Crisis

Nouriel Roubini we are facing serious sovereign debt problem because we have socialized many of the private losses

May 06, 2010 — RGE Economist Nouriel Roubini aka Dr Doom believes Greece is the first symptom of a larger problem
Nouriel Roubini :"My interpretation is that we are at the next stage of this global financial crisis , the first stage was driven by aggressive borrowing and accumulation of debt in the private sector households and financial institutions and now we decided to socialize many of these private losses and there is a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with budget deficit of the order 10% of the GDP and doubling of public debt in most advanced economies "
Roubini"In my view Greece is insolvent their public debt is 120% of GDP their bufget deficit 13.6% of GDP , there is no country cando such a fiscal adjustment to reduce the debt to sustainable level , so I propose that Greece should be restructured there have been episodes of restructuring of public debt in a number of emerging market economies in the last decade , it can be done , instead of using official support to waste money to try to allow some people the exit it's better to restructure this debt it is better to restructure the debt..."

Roubini on the Forex Market

"The currency markets are really very unpredictable. The truth is that America, Europe and Japan are all three in a recession, then logically the three currencies should go down, which is clearly impossible. The real game is on rate differentials, the so-called carry trades, and then on speculation that entails. In recent months there had been a rally of the dollar against the euro, which if we were unreasonable because America was worse than Europe. Then the euro has recovered just because America was spreading the brand of "zero interest rate". But I think the dollar will soon return to reinforce the strong demand for assets denominated in dollars caused by the issuance of U.S. securities to finance the many planned interventions. Unless Europe does not respond with massive emissions of Eurobonds. Then there is Japan, which has been in deep crisis for much longer than the West: Well, the yen was paradoxically strong for months against the dollar, but now I think that even here the situation is in better balance. You see how complicated it is ? " Nouriel Roubini interviewed by Arianna Editrice

Nouriel Roubini : Bocconi University conference in Milan

Rules, more flexibility and involvement of countries emerging from crisis, This is the only way to exit the crisis according to the one who foresaw it coming before anybody else : the economist Nouriel Roubini who is interviewed during a conference at Bocconi University in Milan.

Intervista a Nouriel Roubini from Focus.it Video on Vimeo.

RGE Arnab Das on Greece The Eurozone and the domino effect

"The crisis in Greece will be exacerbated in the short and the spread will increase with the Bund. The market will continue to test the commitment greek, when there will be full of serious Athens, the spreads decrease. In the background there is another problem: the problem of competitiveness. In recent years the local economy has not grown much and has not been made structural reforms to ensure flexibility in the economy, necessary since exchange rates are fixed. Even Ireland is in crisis, but at least for a decade had grown more in the world. You should also consider Germany, after reunification has faced deflation painful but necessary. Today can not say to Greece: we grant you a discount. "Arnab Das on the Italian Paper Il Giornale
"Monetary union does not include an exit strategy. If Greece were to leave, the debt should rename the new drachma rates skyrocketing. There would be chaos. And then a domino effect: other countries end up under pressure. Would risk a crisis similar to that of Lehman. But to Athens for the euro is just one battle, the war is not yet won. "
"History shows that monetary union is no life without political unity and tax. It may be that the euro is the exception, but only if countries continue to meet Maastricht. Even California is bankrupt, and California weigh much more than Greece, but is not a sovereign state and the federal government can relieve it by transferring funds. The Eurozone rather not have this flexibility. So the crisis in Greece is highlighting the limits of the euro. "

Source Il Giornale

Nouriel Roubini on The Milken Global Conference 2010

Roubini vs. Milken on Global Markets

U.S is in worst shape than Greece! Nouriel Roubini Discusses U.S.. Government Deficits-
Nouriel Roubini : “The trouble is if you are a private sector company you live and work in a market and unless you become more efficient you do not survive and you disapear , while in the case of governments that never happens , and if governments become effectively insolvent they default on their debts and that’s what may be happening soon in Greece and in the rest of the Eurozone and eventually what may happen soon in other advanced economies.”

Roubini : Advanced Economies to grow slower

Nouriel Roubini, Co-Founder & Chairman,of RGE Roubini Global Economics, interviewed by the EconomicTimes of India
Roubini :"in my view, the growth is going to look better in US and also advanced economies in the first half because of a number of temporary factors: the fiscal stimulus, restocking of inventories, base effects in US, the government temporarily hiring immigrant workers to do a census that they do every 10 years, a series of tax policies like cash for clunkers on cars and tax credit for homebuyers and so on. So those are all affects that are going to fizzle out by the second half of the year and I see the weakness of the US household sector keeping the consumption growth weak overtime given that income growth is anaemic, labour income growth is anaemic and wealth relative to income is no low compared to the past. That implies that the private demand does not recover fast enough and the policy affects phased out, then you could have growth falling back towards 1.5% to 2%. It is well below a potential 3%. "

Roubini : The Eurozone is on the verge of breaking up

NYU's Roubini Says Greece Wasn't Ready to Join EU

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University, talks with Bloomberg special correspondent Willow Bay about the impact of the Greek fiscal crisis on the European Union. Roubini also discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy. They speak at the 2010 Milken Institute Global Conference. Bloomberg's Pimm Fox also speaks. (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini : The European Union Could Break-up

Roubini sees 'significantly rising' risk that European monetary union will rip apart

Economist Nouriel Roubini, the famed Dr. Doom of the global financial crisis, doesn’t need much of a push to wax pessimistic. So the news Tuesday that Greece’s credit rating had been cut to junk status was like pitching him a softball right down the middle.

At a panel at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, Roubini worried that Greece’s financial woes -- and more important, the deepening fiscal problems of its European neighbors Portugal and Spain -- could batter global credit markets, disrupt the economic recovery and potentially tear apart the 11-year-old European monetary union.

“The reality is that what has happened in the last few months is the first test of the viability of the European market” and the euro currency, Roubini said, adding that the possibility of the European monetary union coming apart is “significantly rising.”
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Roubini : Sovereign Debt Crisis Likely to Spread

The sovereign debt crisis facing Europe, which started in Greece, is spreading to many other large economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), according to New York University professor of economics Nouriel Roubini.


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Roubini : Dubai crisis means market must contend with credit hits

Dubai crisis means market must contend with credit hits: Roubini

Roubini Dr. Realist or Dr. Doom ?

Roubini's Popularity vs. S&P 500 according to Google Trends?

This Turkish blogger http://ekonomiturk.blogspot.com came to the conclusion that Nouriel Roubini is rather a Dr. Doom and not Dr. Realist , to demonstrate this he used Google Trends and tried to compare the results for the phrase "Nouriel Roubini" and that of "S&P 500 index"
he found out that The correlation coefficient between S&P 500 and “Roubini” index is -0.685; the correlation coefficient between S&P 500 and 8-week moving average “Roubini” index is -0.83. The correlation coefficient is greater when we use the 8 week average because it smooths out those days when Roubini’s name is cited by major media outlets and gets disproportional attention.
Read more about this amazing discovery here >>>

Roubini New Book Crisis Economics : A Crash Course in the Future of Finance

Nouriel Roubini New Book Crisis Economics : A Crash Course in the Future of Finance will be released on May 11, 2010.

You can pre-order on Amazon.com Roubini's new book - Crisis Economics A Crash Course in the Future of Finance - to be published by Penguin on May 11th See but you can pre order it now...:

Nouriel Roubini in Turkey

Roubini to visit Turkish province of Bursa on April 21

Nouriel Roubini, one of the first economists to seen the impending global economic crisis, will hold a conference in the northwestern province of Bursa on April 21.

Ferit Sünneli, chairman of the Automotive Industry Exporters Union, or OİB, said in a written release that the conference was originally scheduled for April 7, but was postponed because of Roubini's health problems. Roubini’s state of health improved, and the conference was rescheduled for April 21, said Sünneli.

“I hope that the postponement of our conference due to the illness of our guest speaker will be understood and appreciated by the attendants and the public. I wish Professor Nouriel Roubini a speedy recovery,” he said.
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Roubini on The Fed Monetary Policy, U.S. Economy

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini talks with Bloomberg Television about Federal Reserve monetary policy and the U.S. economy. (This report is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

Nouriel Roubini on pros and cons of zero rates

Nouriel Roubini view on Emerging Markets

Roubini Outlook for U.S. Stock Market in 2010

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini talks with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Matt Miller about the U.S. federal budget deficit and the outlook for the stock market in 2010.

No risk of a double dip - Christian Menegatti of RGE

Christian Menegatti, VP for global economic research at RGE Roubini Global Economics says while there is no risk of a double dip, growth in Q2 will be heavily below potential. He explains his views to CNBC's Karen Tso, Martin Soong & Sri Jegarajah.

Roubini and Jim Walker founder of Asianomics on China and credit

China tightens credit further, Roubini says move necessary

Investors have grown increasingly jittery over China's steps to limit the availability of credit. Chinese banking authorities have instructed some major banks to stop new lending for the rest of January after loan growth surged in the first few weeks of the year. This move comes after China raised bank reserve requirements last week.

RGE Arnab Das on Dubai Crisis

Dubai crisis means market must contend with credit hits: Arnab Das of RGE Roubini Global Economics :

Roubini on India Economic Reforms

Sustainable economic growth is key to maintain valuations

The potential growth in the emerging markets is higher than that in the developed markets , it ranges between five six percent to as high as ten percent says Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini on India vs China and Emerging Markets

Roubini : India has edge over China as it is less open

MUMBAI: Emerging markets are behind the curve in tightening monetary policy, according to Prof Nouriel Roubini of Stern School of Business in New York, more famous for his prediction of the crisis in the United States. Addressing a private gathering of... FULL ARTICLE AT ECONOMIC TIMES

Roubini amongst The 10 new gurus you should know according to CNN Money

Nouriel Roubini Professor of economics at NYU Stern School of Business, New York City was chosen by CNNMoney amongst the 10 new gurus you should know , dr. Roubini nicknamed Dr. Doom became famous when he predicted the Housing market collapse back in 2006
source CNNMoney.com
Nouriel Roubini nicknamed Dr. Doom and lately Dr. Realist by CNBC , is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm . Prof. Nouriel Roubini A world-class economist who offers an unflinching look at the global meltdown and distinctive insights into its course going forward. His research on financial crisis in emerging economics has yielded a unique and now vindicated approach to future collapses. Roubini speaks on the global economic outlook and its implications for the financial markets. From his analysis of past collapses of emerging economies, he has identified common factors that support his predictions of crisis in the US and world markets. He has held several high-level advisory positions in the US government and international finance organisations, published numerous policy papers and books on key international macro-economic issues and is regularly cited as an authority in the media..Roubini speaks fluently English Italian Farsi Turkish and Hebrew . After receiving BA in political economics at Bocconi University in Milan northern Italy , and doctorate in international economics at Harvard University, he began academic research and policy making by teaching at Yale while also spending time at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and Bank of Israel. Much of his early studies focused on emerging markets. During the administration of President Bill Clinton, he was a senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers, later moving to the United States Treasury Department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner, who is now Treasury Secretary.

In 2008, Fortune magazine wrote that: "In 2005 Roubini said home prices were riding a speculative wave that would soon sink the economy. Back then the professor was called a Cassandra. Now he's a sage." In September 2006, he warned to a skeptical IMF that: "The United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence, and, ultimately, a deep recession." He also foresaw "homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt". The New York Times labeled him "Dr. Doom", whereas, in hindsight, IMF economist Prakash Loungani has called him "a prophet".
As Roubini's descriptions of the current economic crisis have proven to be accurate, he is today a major figure in the U.S. and international debate about the economy, and spends much of his time shuttling between meetings with central bank governors and finance ministers in Europe and Asia. Although he is ranked only 410th in terms of lifetime academic citations,
Prospect Magazine, in January 2009, voted him #2 on its "list of the world’s 100 greatest living public intellectuals". In 2009, Roubini was ranked #4 on Foreign Policy magazine's list of the "top 100 global thinkers", and named one of the 100 most influential people in the world by Time magazine. He has recently appeared before Congress, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the World Economic Forum at Davos.

Roubini China, U.S. are on collision course

NEW YORK -- The U.S. and China are on a “collision course” over the value of the Chinese currency and investors are underestimating the disruptions for global financial markets, according to Nouriel Roubini. “The risk of a collision course on China's FULL ARTICLE AT CHINA POST

Nouriel Roubini outlook for the 2010 Economy

Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini gives his perspective of what economic challenges U.S. will face in 2010 and answers CitizenTube users' questions on the financial crisis.

Nouriel Roubini on Top 25 Market Movers

Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini was chosen by the magazine USNews as the 21st amongst 25 Top Market Movers in the world

Read more here

Roubini Says IMF Aid for Greece Would Be Cleaner Than Leaders Compromise

MARCH 26, 2010
By Jana Randow and Rishaad Salamat March 26 (Bloomberg) — Nouriel Roubini , the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said a rescue plan for Greece by the International Monetary Fund would have been “cleaner” than the deal endorsed yesterday by leaders of the 16-nation euro region. “It’s a compromise between the German views where they wanted to have a greater role of the IMF in the support of Greece and the views of the rest of the euro zone, especially France, where they wanted a European solution,” Roubini said in a Bloomberg TV interview today. “An IMF solution would have been a cleaner one because the IMF has the experience” in providing financial aid to struggling countries

Source:
Roubini Says IMF Aid for Greece Would Be Cleaner Than Leaders’ Compromise

Nouriel Roubini on the Coming Commodities Correction

Nouriel Roubini on the Coming Commodities Correction

by: Hard Assets Investor

March 25, 2010

From crude to copper, from gold to silver, most commodities have been on a tear lately—but is the rise too much, too fast?

So says Dr. Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of the RGE Monitor. Best known for his accurate predictions of the current financial crisis back in 2005, Dr. Roubini now argues that the world has set itself up for another bubble in risky assets, like commodities—and when the bubble pops, it won't be pretty.

HAI Associate Editor Lara Crigger caught up with Dr. Roubini at the "Inside Commodities" conference on Nov. 4, where he shared his thoughts on global commodities markets, including why we can't look to China to drive global growth, how $100 oil would tip us back into recession, and what will happen when the commodities bubble finally pops.
Read Entire interview

Roubini Sees Trade War If U.S. Calls China Currency Manipulator

By Jana Randow and Rishaad Salamat
March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the financial crisis, said U.S. lawmakers may spark a trade war by labeling China as a “currency manipulator.”
“With unemployment at 10 percent and more than 130 Congress people saying we should brand China as a manipulator, the probability the U.S. is going to do that in its mid-April report is significant, I would say at least 50 percent,” Roubini told Bloomberg Television today in Cernobbio, Italy. “That could lead to a trade war, absolutely.”
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Nouriel Roubini on Yuan and Greece Bloomberg Interview live from Cernobbio Italy

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini talks with Bloomberg's Rishaad Salamat about the European Union's aid plan for Greece. Speaking at Cernobbio, Italy, Roubini also discusses the chances of a trade war between the U.S. and China over yuan policy.

Nouriel Roubini at the Ambrosetti workshop Cernobbio Italy

Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs and professor Nouriel Roubini give their point of views regarding Greece Europe the Euro China the global recession and much more ...

Nouriel Roubini Warns On US-China Collision Course

Fresh from a meeting with Premier Wen Jiabao at the annual China Development Forum, Nouriel Roubini has put out a note to his clients.

The U.S. and China are on a “collision course” over the value of the Chinese currency and investors are underestimating the disruptions for global financial markets, according to Roubini.


“The risk of a collision course on China’s currency peg and a wider trade rift between the world’s largest debtor and creditor nations has risen significantly in recent months,” Roubini wrote in a note to clients. “Markets do not seem to be pricing in the potential consequences of the U.S. labeling China a currency manipulator, which could be significant even if both sides avoid taking immediate bilateral actions.”
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Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics at New York University

Nouriel Roubini on The FED 0 Percent Interest Rate

Nouriel Roubini interviewed by the Nightly Business Report Mar 17th 2010

Nouriel Roubini Chairman of RGE Global Economics , on the FED's 0 Percent Interest Rate Policy

ROUBINI: "Well, yes, in the sense that the economy is still very weak and the recovery is anemic. Unemployment is going to be remaining high. There are more downsides rather than upside risks. So I expect the Fed's going to keep the Fed funds rate at zero through the middle of next year. And they might even do more quantitative easing. Even today, they signaled they may end that program at the end of March. If there was a backup in mortgage rates and that's something you cannot exclude, the last thing you can afford in an election year is a sharp increase in mortgage rates when construction activity is still very weak. So I expect more easy money "
ROUBINI: "Well, for the time being, I expect that long-term bond yields in the U.S. are going to remain low because growth is going to be weak. You'll have deflation. You'll have bouts of risk aversion. The Fed is committed to keep zero rates. The Fed might do more QE. The rest of the world is buying and accumulating reserves to the rate of $1 trillion annualized to prevent their currency from appreciating. That's going to U.S. Treasury, and for the first time in a decade, we have some domestic financing of the U.S. fiscal deficit because savings have gone up, so we don't depend on the kindness of strangers. Given all that, I don't expect bond yields to spike for the time being, but if after the election, we're a divided government, we have run-away fiscal deficit monetize them, then at some point even in the U.S., the bond market vigilantes may wake up the way they did in Greece and UK, around Europe and then you could have a spike in rates. That's a 2011 story, not this year."

Nouriel Roubini is in Beijing for the China Development Forum

http://www.cdrf.org.cn/en/project/project.php?cid=726

Nouriel Roubini On The Coming Commodities Correction

Source Hardassetsinvestor.com: From crude to copper, from gold to silver, most commodities have been on a tear lately—but is the rise too much, too fast? So says Dr. Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and chairman of the RGE Monitor.
Best known for his accurate predictions of the current financial crisis back in 2005, Dr. Roubini now argues that the world has set itself up for another bubble in risky assets, like commodities—and when the bubble pops, it won’t be pretty……………………………
Full Article

Nouriel Roubini : securitisation was key to helping banks avoid the regulators

Professor Nouriel Roubini, and Chairman of RGE a leading New York firm of economic analysts, says securitisation was key to helping banks avoid the regulators

“You make a bunch of mortgages and then you package them and you sell it to someone else,” he explains.
Professor Roubini says that even at the low end of the estimates the potential impact on the rest of the economy is massive.

“If you have a $200bn loss, that reduced your capital by $200bn, you have to reduce your lending by 10 times as much,” he explains.

“So you could have a reduction of total credit to the economy of two trillion dollars”.

The professor predicts that a reduction of credit on that scale will trigger a recession in America which could become global as the contagion spreads through the banking system worldwide.

via www.debtbegonetoday.com

Nouriel Roubini warns about an U-shaped anemic recovery

"My basic scenario is a U-shaped anemic recovery. There is a downside risk of a double-digit recession, low probability, but if growth is going to be only 1.5 percent, it is going to feel like a recession, even if we're technically not in a recession."
----Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini on The Korea Herald about the debt problems

NOURIEL ROUBINI Unsustainable private-debt problems

LONDON -- The Great Recession of 2008-2009 was triggered by excessive debt accumulation and leverage on the part of households, financial institutions, and even the corporate sector in many advanced economies. While there is much talk about de-leveraging as the crisis wanes, the reality is that private-sector debt ratios have stabilized at very high levels.
By contrast, as a consequence of fiscal stimulus and socialization of part of the private sector's losses, there is now a massive re-leveraging of the public sector. Deficits in excess of 10 percent of GDP can be found in many advanced economies, and debt-to-GDP ratios are expected to rise sharply - in some cases doubling in the next few years.

As Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff's new book "This Time is Different" demonstrates, such balance-sheet crises have historically led to economic recoveries that are slow, anemic, and below-trend for many years. Sovereign-debt problems are another strong possibility, given the massive re-leveraging of the public sector.

In countries that cannot issue debt in their own currency (traditionally emerging-market economies), or that issue debt in their own currency but cannot independently print money (as in the euro zone), unsustainable fiscal deficits often lead to a credit crisis, a sovereign default, or other coercive form of public-debt restructuring.
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Nouriel Roubini is Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and Chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics , a global macroeconomic consultancy.

Nouriel Roubini : Risks of runaway fiscal deficit and monetization

Wall Street's Fear Gauge - Nouriel Roubini on CNBC 16 Mar. 2010

Nouriel Roubini Chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics " there is a significant amount of uncertainty about the exit strategy and in my view damn if you do damn if you don't " says Nouriel Roubini " If you exit too soon from the stimulus you end up back into recession deflation if you wait too long and you have run away fiscal deficits and you keep on monetizing them eventually there will be credit risk or high inflation and that's gonna also armed recovery , so the path of exit is going to be very very difficult , and there will be a risk of major policy mistake in election year in the United States or in the UK or in other countries"
The VIX is trading at the bottom of its two-year range, a possible signal that fear is leaving the market. Paul Britton, of the Capstone Holdings Group, and Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, share their insight.

RGE Roubini Global Economics Expands Market Research and Strategy Team

NEW YORK and LONDON, March 15 /PRNewswire/ -- Roubini Global Economics (RGE) announced today that it has made major appointments to its Market Research and Strategy Team. Gina Sanchez has joined the firm as a Director, Equity and Asset Allocation Strategy, Natalia Gurushina has joined as Director, Emerging Markets Strategy and Arun Motianey has been hired as Director, Fixed Income Strategy. These three senior strategists are based in the United States. Jennifer Kapila has joined as Financial Institutions Analyst, based in London, in the United Kingdom. All will work closely with Arnab Das, Managing Director of Market Research and Strategy based in London and New York, and will contribute along with strategists soon to be recruited to give RGE clients expert advice in asset allocation across and within the major asset classes.

"Gina, Natalia and Arun are all outstanding strategists who consistently rate at the top of their field. Jennifer is an incisive financial institutions analyst who is already cutting to the heart of the major challenges in our global banking industry. Their guidance will prove to be of immeasurable benefit to our clients," said RGE Chairman Dr. Nouriel Roubini. "With their addition, we're confident that our market research and strategy team is among the strongest in the industry."

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Nouriel Roubini: Poor Economic Data Suggests A Double-Dip Recession Is Coming

Nouriel Roubini on forbes.com:

A slew of poor economic data over the past two weeks suggests that the U.S. economy is headed for a U-shaped recovery--at best--in 2010. The macro news, including data on consumer confidence, home sales, construction and employment, actually suggests a significant downside risk even to the anemic levels of growth which I forecast for H1 (the first half of the year).

Read the whole story: forbes.com

RGE Arun Motianey explains the super Cycles Theory

Roubini's Recent Catch

A surprising new theory high on the radar, with Arun Motianey, Roubini Global Economics senior fixed income strategist.