Outlook for Indonesia : Prospects are still pretty strong

Nouriel Roubini

Question: You’re known as Dr. Doom, the man who usually has a bearish forecast for the global economy. And yet, you have always had a positive outlook on Indonesia. What’s behind your faith in the Indonesian economy?

Nouriel Roubini : First of all, I don’t think I’m Dr. Doom. I’m Dr. Realist. I try to correctly understand what’s going on in the global economy. A few years ago, there was a global financial crisis, but now there is recovery. The emerging markets for the last few years have done overall much better than advanced economies.

And if I look at Indonesia, I would say that the medium-term prospects are still pretty strong in terms of actual and potential growth, being at least 6 percent if not higher. The existence of external deficit, slightly higher than target inflation, has led to some concerns and some financial pressures on the currency, the bond market and the equity market.

If a gov shutdown cannot lift gold, what else will?

 If a gov shutdown cannot lift gold, what else will? "Gold Falls Below $1,300 to Seven-Week Low on Shutdown"


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Financial Armageddon

 If you worry about Financial Armageddon, it is indeed metaphorically the time to stock your bunker with guns, ammunition, canned food and gold bars.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

slashing labor costs has sharply reduced the share of labor income in GDP

The result is that free markets don’t generate enough final demand. In the US, for example, slashing labor costs has sharply reduced the share of labor income in GDP.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Reasons for Caution

 Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, expects recovery in the west to be 'at best weak'. He talks to Sarah Gordon, Europe business editor, a... İcerik giriniz



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : 10 basic and key questions that the Senators failed to ask Janet Yellen at her confirmation hearing

 10 basic and key questions that the Senators failed to ask Janet Yellen at her confirmation hearings. Who is prepping these folks?


 Questions Senators were too naive to ask Yellen:
 1. You wrote about optimal control (OC) ie allow inflation above target. Do you support OC?
 2. You wrote a few times that inflation may have to go above target for a while to reduce labor slack. Do you support this optimal control?
 3. Do you agree with Governor Stein that macro-pru will not be sufficient to control bubbles? Would you raise rates sooner to prick bubbles?
 4. While you say no bubble today what is the risk that slow QE exit & policy rate normalization (4 yrs) will cause bubbles down the line?
5 . If the current approach to too-big-to-fail will not work would you down the line support breaking up big banks to deal with TBTF?
 6. What will be Fed losses of paying interest on excess reserves of $3 trillion+ when you will normalize policy rates to 4%? 120bn a year?
 7. Fed criteria for taper is a cumulative improvement in labor mkt outlook. Aren't we there now given fall in Un Rate & 180K jobs per month?

Roubini : The ECB will eventually move to a Negative Deposit Rate

Nouriel Roubini ‏: In October we at RGE also made an out of consensus call that the ECB will eventually move to a negative deposit rate and even to QE
And now senior ECB officials are openly talking about a negative deposit rate and about QE as options to fight low inflation/ strong euro - in Twitter
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Keynote speaker @ Mandiri Investment Forum in Indonesia

Dr. Nouriel Roubini was a keynote speaker at the Mandiri Investment Forum in Jakarta on the 10th November . Global economic outlook and Indonesia

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Policymakers will Face an ugly trade-off

 Nouriel Roubini : “Policymakers will eventually face an ugly trade-off: kill the recovery to avoid risky bubbles, or go for growth at the risk of fueling the next financial crisis,”

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Rich Countries may be entering twilight zone of Ultralow Inflation

Nouriel Roubini : Or deflation @EconBizFin: The growing fear is that rich countries may be entering twilight zone of ultralow inflation - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: how much stronger could the pound sterling become?

Nouriel Roubini ‏: I am in London. With Fed, BoJ, SNB and now ECB in easing mode while the BoE is on hold how much stronger could the pound sterling become?- in twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: These are the Bubbles to watch

 Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- NYU Stern Business School Professor Nouriel Roubini discusses he risk of asset bubbles on Bloomberg Television's "Money Moves." (Source: Bloomberg)




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini was Right again !!

Nouriel Roubini : At RGE we rightly predicted that the BOJ would surprise markets in April;that the Fed would not taper in Sept;that ECB would cut rates today- in twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini vs. El-Erian: How Bad Off Is the Economy?

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg Television's "Lunch Money" Host Matt Miller reports on the global economy. (Source: Bloomberg)



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Fiscal Drag Is Damaging U.S. Growth

Roubini: Fiscal Drag Is Damaging U.S. Growth

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- On today's "Chart Attack," NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini and Bloomberg's Matt Miller look at how the government is weighing on economic growth. They speak on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Watch These Bubbles About to Pop

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- NYU Stern Business School Professor Nouriel Roubini discusses he risk of asset bubbles on Bloomberg Television's "Money Moves." (Source: Bloomberg)




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini's Advice for Investing in China

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) –- In today's "Global Outlook," NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini takes a look at China's economy and fiscal reforms on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini says central bankers have a tough choice: Kill recovery or risk bubbles

Regulations meant to curb risks in the global financial system –known to economists as “macroprudential regulations” — had better work, or central bankers will be between a rock and a hard place.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis six years ago, unconventional tools like quantitative easing and zero-interest rate policies may have sparked an economic recovery but not one of turbocharged growth or low unemployment. That puts policy makers in a difficult position, NYU economist Nouriel Roubini wrote in an opinion piece at Live Mint on Wednesday. He added:
“[P]olicymakers will eventually face an ugly trade-off: kill the recovery to avoid risky bubbles, or go for growth at the risk of fueling the next financial crisis.”

Roubini on The Financial Armageddon

Nouriel Roubini : If you worry about Financial Armageddon, it is indeed metaphorically the time to stock your bunker with guns, ammunition, canned food and gold bars.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The QE Money Suplly did not help Finance private consumption or Investment

NEW YORK – As below-trend GDP growth and high unemployment continue to afflict most advanced economies, their central banks have resorted to increasingly unconventional monetary policy. An alphabet soup of measures has been served up: ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy); QE (quantitative easing, or purchases of government bonds to reduce long-term rates when short-term policy rates are zero); CE (credit easing, or purchases of private assets aimed at lowering the private sector’s cost of capital); and FG (forward guidance, or the commitment to maintain QE or ZIRP until, say, the unemployment rate reaches a certain target). Some have gone as far as proposing NIPR (negative-interest-rate policy).

And yet, through it all, growth rates have remained stubbornly low and unemployment rates unacceptably high, partly because the increase in money supply following QE has not led to credit creation to finance private consumption or investment. Instead, banks have hoarded the increase in the monetary base in the form of idle excess reserves. There is a credit crunch, as banks with insufficient capital do not want to lend to risky borrowers, while slow growth and high levels of household debt have also depressed credit demand.
 Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/on-the-ugly-policy-tradeoff-facing-advanced-country-central-bankers-by-nouriel-roubini#tQlVKVMYyF66b1uP.99

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Brazil Was Too Hyped

2 years ago at the Milken Conference, Eike Batista criticized me in our panel for saying that Brazil was too hyped. Today he is nearly bankrupt. - in a recent tweet

Related trading instruments: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Workers’ Rights needed to be protected , To Avoid Revolution

Even before the Great Depression, Europe’s enlightened “bourgeois” classes recognized that, to avoid revolution, workers’ rights needed to be protected, wage and labor conditions improved, and a welfare state created to redistribute wealth and finance public goods – education, health care, and a social safety net. The push towards a modern welfare state accelerated after the Great Depression, when the state took on the responsibility for macroeconomic stabilization – a role that required the maintenance of a large middle class by widening the provision of public goods through progressive taxation of incomes and wealth and fostering economic opportunity for all. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Economic Reforms in China

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Chinese senior officials will present their plans for economic reforms next week at the Third Plenum of the CC of the CCP- in Twitter

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: China has a plan for Comprehensive Reforms

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Both President Xi & Premier Li confirmed to us that China has a plan for "comprehensive reforms". Details to be unveiled at the Third Plenum - in twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Central Bank Policymakers Are Damned if They Do, Damned if They Don't

"If policymakers go slow on raising rates to encourage faster economic recovery, they risk causing the mother of all asset bubbles, eventually leading to a bust, another massive financial crisis and a rapid slide into recession,"

"But if they try to prick bubbles early on with higher interest rates, they will crash bond markets and kill the recovery, causing much economic and financial damage." - in Project Syndicate.

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Near-Zero Policy Rates Encourage “Carry Trades”

As a result, all of this excess liquidity is flowing to the financial sector rather than the real economy. Near-zero policy rates encourage “carry trades” – debt-financed investment in higher-yielding risky assets such as longer-term government and private bonds, equities, commodities and currencies of countries with high interest rates. The result has been frothy financial markets that could eventually turn bubbly.

Indeed, the US stock market and many others have rebounded more than 100% since the lows of 2009; issuance of high-yield “junk bonds” is back to its 2007 level; and interest rates on such bonds are falling. Moreover, low interest rates are leading to high and rising home prices – possibly real-estate bubbles – in advanced economies and emerging markets alike, including Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Germany, France, Hong Kong, Singapore, Brazil, China, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. - in Project Syndicate



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Bubbles in the Broth By Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – As below-trend GDP growth and high unemployment continue to afflict most advanced economies, their central banks have resorted to increasingly unconventional monetary policy. An alphabet soup of measures has been served up: ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy); QE (quantitative easing, or purchases of government bonds to reduce long-term rates when short-term policy rates are zero); CE (credit easing, or purchases of private assets aimed at lowering the private sector’s cost of capital); and FG (forward guidance, or the commitment to maintain QE or ZIRP until, say, the unemployment rate reaches a certain target). Some have gone as far as proposing NIPR (negative-interest-rate policy).

And yet, through it all, growth rates have remained stubbornly low and unemployment rates unacceptably high, partly because the increase in money supply following QE has not led to credit creation to finance private consumption or investment. Instead, banks have hoarded the increase in the monetary base in the form of idle excess reserves. There is a credit crunch, as banks with insufficient capital do not want to lend to risky borrowers, while slow growth and high levels of household debt have also depressed credit demand.

As a result, all of this excess liquidity is flowing to the financial sector rather than the real economy. Near-zero policy rates encourage “carry trades” – debt-financed investment in higher-yielding risky assets such as longer-term government and private bonds, equities, commodities and currencies of countries with high interest rates. The result has been frothy financial markets that could eventually turn bubbly.
 Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/on-the-ugly-policy-tradeoff-facing-advanced-country-central-bankers-by-nouriel-roubini#QiTrPvc4Dfoj477s.99



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

To Avoid Revolution, Workers’ Rights needed to be protected

Even before the Great Depression, Europe’s enlightened “bourgeois” classes recognized that, to avoid revolution, workers’ rights needed to be protected, wage and labor conditions improved, and a welfare state created to redistribute wealth and finance public goods – education, health care, and a social safety net. The push towards a modern welfare state accelerated after the Great Depression, when the state took on the responsibility for macroeconomic stabilization – a role that required the maintenance of a large middle class by widening the provision of public goods through progressive taxation of incomes and wealth and fostering economic opportunity for all.
- in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The laissez-faire Anglo-Saxon Model has also now failed miserably

Some of the lessons about the need for prudential regulation of the financial system were lost in the Reagan-Thatcher era, when the appetite for massive deregulation was created in part by the flaws in Europe’s social-welfare model. Those flaws were reflected in yawning fiscal deficits, regulatory overkill, and a lack of economic dynamism that led to sclerotic growth then and the eurozone’s sovereign-debt crisis now.

But the laissez-faire Anglo-Saxon model has also now failed miserably. To stabilize market-oriented economies requires a return to the right balance between markets and provision of public goods. That means moving away from both the Anglo-Saxon model of unregulated markets and the continental European model of deficit-driven welfare states. Even an alternative “Asian” growth model – if there really is one – has not prevented a rise in inequality in China, India, and elsewhere.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-instability-of-inequality#juCFBDsebYgHlIi6.99

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Free Markets don’t generate enough final demand

The result is that free markets don’t generate enough final demand. In the US, for example, slashing labor costs has sharply reduced the share of labor income in GDP. With credit exhausted, the effects on aggregate demand of decades of redistribution of income and wealth – from labor to capital, from wages to profits, from poor to rich, and from households to corporate firms – have become severe, owing to the lower marginal propensity of firms/capital owners/rich households to spend.
 Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-instability-of-inequality#EMpWF46kppBF3r67.99

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Karl Marx oversold socialism, but he was right

The problem is not new. Karl Marx oversold socialism, but he was right in claiming that globalization, unfettered financial capitalism, and redistribution of income and wealth from labor to capital could lead capitalism to self-destruct. As he argued, unregulated capitalism can lead to regular bouts of over-capacity, under-consumption, and the recurrence of destructive financial crises, fueled by credit bubbles and asset-price booms and busts.
 Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-instability-of-inequality#Xf1IbaBe0EHb7Vdj.99


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Instability of Inequality by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate

 The Instability of Inequality by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate

    Any economic model that doesn’t properly address inequality will eventually face a crisis of legitimacy, as today's global protests are now demonstrating. Unless the relative economic roles of the market and the state are rebalanced, the protests of 2011 will become more severe, eventually harming long-term economic growth and welfare.

Read more at www.project-syndicate.org
 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: Forget the G20, We Live in a G Zero World

There is no New World Order Human race understands only one order, order of master and slave order of those who give orders and those who obey.
Globalization is dictatorship of MIGHTY too of their control is Financial Capital



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

EXCLUSIVE Video: Nouriel Roubini: How Sequestration will impact US Growth

 Nouriel Roubini discusses how the latest round of sequestration will impact US growth over the next year and beyond.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event.




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Call me Dr. Realist

“I prefer to be called Dr. Realist. I’m not either a pessimist or an optimist. It’s not as if I’m a perma-bear. Right now there is a global economic recovery, so I think you have to be a realist about what can go right, and what can go wrong.”

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: Chile will become the first developed country in South America

Nouriel Roubini The University of New York economist visits South America and Chile and gives his analyzes and projections on the global economy and Economic Agenda.(The Interview is unfortunately in Spanish )

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazilian Economy is in a Growth funk as policy uncertainty wide

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Leaving now Brazilia for Rio de Janeiro. Useful policy & business meetings in Brazil. Economy is in a growth funk as policy uncertainty wide- in Twitter




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil was too hyped 2 years ago . Today it is nearly Bankrupt

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Riots in Rio: I arrived to Rio where the city was under siege as demonstrators protested the auction of the offshore pre-salt oil fields
2 yrs ago at the Milken Conference Eike Batista criticized me in our panel for saying that Brazil was too hyped. Today he is nearly bankrupt  - in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Investing Tips from Nouriel Roubini

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Tom Keene looks at what's behind the increasing optimism from NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini. Keene speaks on Bloomberg Television's "In The Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

This is How Roubini Would Invest $1,000 Right Now

 Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) --- Economist Nouriel Roubini, cofounder of Roubini Global Ecomonics, explains how he would invest $1,000 in the current climate, what he thinks of his "Dr. Doom" nickname, and what he saw before he forecast the 2008 economic downturn. (Source: Bloomberg)







Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini would Invest in UK and Japanese Equities

Roubini would invest in UK and Japanese equities , The co-founder of Roubini Global Ecomonics explains how he would invest $1,000 in the current climate, what he thinks of his ‘Dr. Doom’ nickname, and what he saw before he forecast the 2008 economic downturn.




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini Time to Close the Financial Supermarkets

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Gold Slumping to 4 Year Low for Best Forecasters

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Gold Slumping to Four-Year Low for Best Forecasters: Commodities - Bloomberg http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-16/gold-slumping-to-four-year-low-for-best-forecasters-commodities.html?cmpid= …- in a recent tweet  



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The FED would eventually scale back its massive QE Program slowly pushing up Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve would eventually scale back its massive quantitative easing program "very gradually"—slowly pushing up interest rates. - in CNBC
 
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

EU Monetary Union : Disintegration Risk Has Diminished Significantly

 "A little more than a year ago, in the summer of 2012, the eurozone, faced with growing fears of a Greek exit and unsustainably high borrowing costs for Italy and Spain, appeared to be on the brink of collapse. Today, the risk that the monetary union could disintegrate has diminished significantly – but the factors that led to it remain largely unaddressed." - in The Guardian



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

There is Uncertainty that is already affecting Business, Investor and Consumer Confidence

 “There is uncertainty that is already affecting business, investor and consumer confidence, leading to less retail sales, less capital spending by the corporate sector,” Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC, said on Bloomberg Radio’s


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Economic Impact in Terms of a Fiscal Drag

The economic impact in terms of a fiscal drag is the difference between U.S. economic growth and tipping into a downturn. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: We will have a repeat of the Shutdown & Debt Ceiling fight

Nouriel Roubini ‏: We will have a repeat of the shutdown & debt ceiling fight: US debt deal "Analysts relieved rather than celebrating" http://on.ft.com/15KLf7Y - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini Reasons for Caution

Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, expects recovery in the west to be 'at best weak'. He talks to Sarah Gordon, Europe business editor

America , back into Recession

"If there is not agreement, the resulting financial damage could even tip us into a recession," "The economic impact in terms of a fiscal drag is the difference" between U.S. economic growth and tipping into a downturn - in a recent interview with CNBC , click here to watch the full interview >>>>>>