The Resource Boom a form of Dutch Disease

“The resource boom has lead to a strong currency that’s crowding out manufacturing,” Roubini said. “That’s a form of Dutch disease and that could be a long-term problem.” - in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Advocates The Weakening of The Canadian Dollar

“I would use more aggressive monetary policy to weaken the currency,” Roubini said at a lunchtime event at the Toronto Hilton, referring to the Canadian dollar. “That’s what I would do. More than fiscal stimulus I would say a commitment to keep rates low for longer, or having an easing bias, something along those lines.” “It may not be conventional wisdom right now but I’d say keeping your currency weaker right now is important,” Roubini said. - via Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging-Market Risk and Reward

NEW YORK – One definition of an emerging-market economy is that its political risks are higher, and its policy credibility lower, than in advanced economies. After the financial crisis, when emerging-market economies continued to grow robustly, that definition seemed obsolete; now, with the recent turbulence in emerging economies driven in part by weaker economic-policy credibility and growing political uncertainty, it seems as relevant as ever.

Consider the so-called Fragile Five: India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and South Africa. All have in common not only economic and policy weaknesses (twin fiscal and current-account deficits, slowing growth and rising inflation, sluggish structural reforms), but also presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Many other emerging economies – Ukraine, Argentina, Venezuela, Russia, Hungary, Thailand, and Nigeria – also face significant political and/or social uncertainties and civil unrest.

And that list does not include the perilously unstable Middle East, where the Arab Spring in Libya and Egypt has become a winter of seething discontent; civil war rages in Syria and smolders in Yemen; and Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan form a contiguous arc of volatility. Nor does it include Asia’s geopolitical risks arising from the territorial disputes between China and many of its neighbors, including Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Vietnam.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-looks-for-the-silver-lining-in-the-turmoil-currently-wracking-so-many-middle-income-economies#T0DwbL9pbgyltGps.99



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The rising tension between China and Japan

What was the main theme at Davos this year?

Nouriel Roubini : Probably the biggest one was the rising tension between China and Japan. People are starting to make comparisons to 1914: You have a rising power facing an existing power, and in the past that has led to war.
Of course, it’s not inevitable, but both the Japanese side and even the Chinese side have made bellicose statements. So I hope diplomacy can succeed but I’d say that that was one of the big stories. - in Business Insider




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Money to flow from Canada to America

If the Fed starts to raise rates some time next year, and the Bank of Canada waits for a few months, if not quarters, then money is going to flow out of Canada into the U.S. and that is going to weaken the currency.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Canadian Dollar needs to Weaken

I would say if your currency was 10 percent weaker, that would help manufacturing. It might not be conventional wisdom, but at the margin, I would say, keeping your currency weaker right now, it's important.



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Markets & The Risk to The World Economy

How big of a risk to the world economy are the troubles we’ve seen in emerging markets recently?

Nouriel Roubini : I was in a panel in plenary session about emerging markets, and I said that I think what happened last year might repeat itself this year. You still have, on the one side, concerns about the Chinese economic slowdown, there are concerns about how fast the Fed tapers and raises interest rates, commodities prices are becoming softer, many of these countries have not done structural reforms, and many of them have a lot of fragility, have lax monetary credit and fiscal policy.
And now there is a layer of political uncertainty, with the “Fragile Five” having parliamentary or presidential elections: India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa. There’s also additional political uncertainty coming from other places like Ukraine, places like Argentina, places like Thailand, that affects markets.
So what happened this week was a bit of a mini perfect storm between Chinese PMI of 50, Argentina letting its currency go, noises coming politically from Ukraine, Turkey, and Thailand … so the contagion is not just within emerging markets but also affects advanced economies’ equity markets. - in Business Insider Australia



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Italian TV Interview with Nouriel Roubini Global Economics

Interview with Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics. New Italian government. Eurozone economic situation. Opportunity and risk in Europe.



Nouriel Roubini is the co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics and a professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business. From 1998-2000, he served as the Senior Economist for International Affairs at the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then as Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises among other issues.

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

ROUBINI: We Just Saw A Mini Perfect Storm

How big of a risk to the world economy are the troubles we’ve seen in emerging markets recently?

Nouriel Roubini  : I was in a panel in plenary session about emerging markets, and I said that I think what happened last year might repeat itself this year. You still have, on the one side, concerns about the Chinese economic slowdown, there are concerns about how fast the Fed tapers and raises interest rates, commodities prices are becoming softer, many of these countries have not done structural reforms, and many of them have a lot of fragility, have lax monetary credit and fiscal policy.

And now there is a layer of political uncertainty, with the “Fragile Five” having parliamentary or presidential elections: India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa. There’s also additional political uncertainty coming from other places like Ukraine, places like Argentina, places like Thailand, that affects markets.

So what happened this week was a bit of a mini perfect storm between Chinese PMI of 50, Argentina letting its currency go, noises coming politically from Ukraine, Turkey, and Thailand … so the contagion is not just within emerging markets but also affects advanced economies’ equity markets. - in Business Insider Australia





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

How to Weaken The Euro

“You need to have some degree of monetary easing and credit easing, possibly negative deposit rates, to weaken the euro, to ease financial conditions, to jump start credit growth,” Roubini, the co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Rome today. “I don’t expect action in this direction very soon, but I would say some things the ECB can do are not controversial.” “The value of the euro is too strong,” Roubini said. “Additional monetary easing, conventional and unconventional, could weaken the euro.” “The ECB is still several quarters away from considering seriously that option,” Roubini said. “But you never know that maybe by the end of the year that option, that I think is one of the useful things that the ECB could do, may eventually materialize.” - in Bloomberg



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Markets -- The threat of a full-fledged currency, sovereign debt and banking crisis remains low

Nonetheless, the threat of a full-fledged currency, sovereign debt and banking crisis remains low, even in the Fragile Five, for several reasons. All have flexible exchange rates, a large war chest of reserves to shield against a run on their currencies and banks, and fewer currency mismatches. Many also have sounder banking systems, while their public and private debt ratios, though rising, are still low, with little risk of insolvency.
Over time, optimism about emerging markets is probably correct. Many have sound macroeconomic, financial and policy fundamentals. Moreover, some of the medium-term fundamentals for most emerging markets, including the fragile ones, remain strong: urbanization, industrialization, catch-up growth from low?per capita income, a demographic dividend, the emergence of a more stable middle class, the rise of a consumer society and the opportunities for faster output gains once structural reforms are implemented. So it is not fair to lump all emerging markets into one basket; differentiation is needed.
But the short-run policy trade-offs that many of these countries face - damned if they tighten monetary and fiscal policy fast enough, and damned if they do not - remain ugly. The external risks and internal macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities that they face will continue to cloud their immediate outlook. The next year or two will be a bumpy ride for many emerging markets, before more stable and market-oriented governments implement sounder policies. - in Project Syndicate 2014.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : The Euro is too strong

“The value of the euro is too strong,” Roubini said recently in a Bloomberg interview “Additional monetary easing, conventional and unconventional, could weaken the euro.” “The ECB is still several quarters away from considering seriously that option,” Roubini said. “But you never know that maybe by the end of the year that option, that I think is one of the useful things that the ECB could do, may eventually materialize.”- in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Economies at risk of rising Inflation

Fed has increased the pace of its QE tapering, structural reforms are not likely until after elections; and incumbent governments have been similarly wary of the growth-depressing effects of tightening fiscal, monetary, and credit policies.

Indeed, the failure of many emerging-market governments to tighten macroeconomic policy sufficiently has led to another round of currency depreciation, which risks feeding into higher inflation and jeopardizing these countries ability to finance twin fiscal and external deficits. Chinese growth is unlikely to accelerate and lift commodity prices


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Renzi the right man to reform Italy, but it needs a strong government

Source Il Sole 24 Ore http://mobile.ilsole24ore.com/sole24orem/post/99?url=ABMkwZx

The time to act quickly and talk less because Italy very fragile , and Matteo Renzi just the man to do this. a strong leader has vision , ability , charisma and leadership to create the political conditions to implement the necessary reforms. so that Nouriel Roubini , renowned economist , a professor at New York University, the chairman of the board in charge of the weight of a "game changer ." In an exclusive interview with Il Sole 24 Ore, Roubini , in Rome for a conference on the future of the eurozone , defines Renzi young, dynamic , energetic, with good ideas, centrist , which can succeed in creating a coalition able to make changes radicals necessary for Italy . Despite the qualities that recognizes Renzi Roubini , the economist , known around the world under the name of " Mr. Doctor Doom" , also believes that for one person alone is not enough to do all the work on the reforms needed cohesion in the coalition , and serves a strong government .
For Roubini there ' a huge gap between the center-right and center-left on the necessary reforms to Italy. The long list . And to the question where to start Roubini has clear ideas : Italy needs to change the electoral system as the first institutional reform , but what about the economy , Italy should definitely increase the growth potential and productivity . To do this we must begin by reducing the tax wedge . Roubini for every euro saved by the spending review should go to reducing the tax wedge . In addition, the labor market has become more flexible. Roubini believes that Italy has made significant progress on the rigor of public accounts keeping the deficit below 3 %, but the public debt at 130% of GDP could rise even if c ' sufficient growth .



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : ECB Has Room to Ease Credit While Weakening Euro

“You need to have some degree of monetary easing and credit easing, possibly negative deposit rates, to weaken the euro, to ease financial conditions, to jump start credit growth,” Roubini, the co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Rome today. “I don’t expect action in this direction very soon, but I would say some things the ECB can do are not controversial.” - in Bloomberg




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Over time, optimism about Emerging Markets is probably correct

 Over time, optimism about emerging markets is probably correct. Many have sound macroeconomic, financial and policy fundamentals. Moreover, some of the medium-term fundamentals for most emerging markets, including the fragile ones, remain strong: urbanization, industrialization, catch-up growth from low?per capita income, a demographic dividend, the emergence of a more stable middle class, the rise of a consumer society and the opportunities for faster output gains once structural reforms are implemented. So it is not fair to lump all emerging markets into one basket; differentiation is needed.

But the short-run policy trade-offs that many of these countries face - damned if they tighten monetary and fiscal policy fast enough, and damned if they do not - remain ugly. The external risks and internal macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities that they face will continue to cloud their immediate outlook. The next year or two will be a bumpy ride for many emerging markets, before more stable and market-oriented governments implement sounder policies.- in Project-Syndicate


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Renzi the Tony Blair or Bill Clinton of Italy ?

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " Will Renzi be the Tony Blair or Bill Clinton of Italy, a "new left" centrist leader that implements structural reforms & restores growth?"

"Can a young new leader aged 39 - Renzi - shake up a sclerotic country like Italy that is rapidly aging and in chronic economic decline?"- in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini | The Brics Bubble

The financial turmoil that hit emerging market economies last spring, following the US Federal Reserve’s taper tantrum over its quantitative easing (QE) policy, has returned with a vengeance. This time, the trigger was a confluence of several events: a currency crisis in Argentina, where the authorities stopped intervening in the forex markets to prevent the loss of foreign reserves; weaker economic data from China; and persistent political uncertainty and unrest in Turkey, Ukraine and Thailand.

This mini perfect storm in emerging markets was soon transmitted, via international investors’ risk aversion, to advanced economies’ stock markets. But the immediate trigger for these pressures should not be confused with their deeper causes: Many emerging markets are in real trouble.

The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa—dubbed the Fragile Five because all have twin fiscal and current account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative or presidential elections this year. But five other significant countries—Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand—are also vulnerable. Political and electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.

Then, there are the over-hyped BRICS countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the US this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries’ potential growth.

The largest of the BRICS, China, faces additional risk stemming from a credit-fuelled investment boom, with excessive borrowing by local governments, state-owned enterprises, and real estate firms severely weakening the asset portfolios of banks and shadow banks. Most credit bubbles this large have ended up causing a hard economic landing, and China’s economy is unlikely to escape unscathed, particularly as reforms to rebalance growth from high savings and fixed investment to private consumption are likely to be implemented too slowly, given the powerful interests aligned against them.

Moreover, the deep causes of last year’s turmoil in emerging markets have not disappeared. For starters, the risk of a hard landing in China poses a serious threat to emerging Asia, commodity exporters around the world, and even advanced economies.

At the same time, Fed’s tapering of its long-term asset purchases has begun in earnest, with interest rates set to rise. As a result, the capital that flowed to emerging markets in the years of high liquidity and low yields in advanced economies is now fleeing many countries where easy money caused fiscal, monetary, and credit policies to become too lax.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/NLtzcE6zodVUWwxlqwvQeK/Nouriel-Roubini--The-trouble-with-emerging-markets.html



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini 2014 trip in Africa

Nouriel Roubini ‏: I spent 10 days in Africa -Nigeria, South Africa, Congo-Brazzaville, DRC & Zimbabwe- with the Invest Africa that organized an excellent trip
According to local policy officials 70% of folks in the DRC live on a $1 a day or less and a majority suffers of severe malnutrition - via Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Shadow-Banking Credit last year, accounted for 29% of China’s total Credit

The shadow-banking system emerged to meet the demand from private firms and SOEs for extra liquidity to help them cope with the slowing economy and fulfill their investment commitments. Private-sector entrepreneurs in cities like Wenzhou were willing to pay annual interest rates as high as 15-20%.

On the supply side, savers – including wealthy households and corporations with surplus cash – wanted positive real interest rates on their deposits. Loan-guarantee institutions, trust companies, and others sought to benefit from the gap between the 3.5% return on one-year fixed deposits in the official banking system and rates of up to 20% in the shadow-banking sector. The result was a 43% increase in shadow-banking credit last year, accounting for 29% of China’s total credit. - in www.project-syndicate.org


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: Calgary [CANADA] is a Boom town

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Calgary is a boom town & Alberta an energy hub given oil sands & unconventional energy. Issue: how to transport it to market destinations? - in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : The Commodity Supercycle likely over

The "commodity supercycle" likely over: Roubini Economist Nouriel Roubini says weaker growth in China and a slow recovery in advanced economies will pressure global commodities prices, ending their decade-long bull market.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Cosa Chiede l'Italia alla Germania

Roubini to The Repubblica Italian Newspaper : Cosa si chiede alla Germania Nouriel Roubini, docente di Economia alla New York University, intervistato da Eugenio Occorsio



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are over-hyped BRICS countries

Then, there are the over-hyped BRICS countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the United States this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) GDP rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries’ potential growth. - in www.project-syndicate.org


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: 'Die Eurozone ist noch sehr zerbrechlich'

 Die Weltwirtschaft scheint die Nachwehen der Finanzkrise langsam hinter sich zu lassen. Für das laufende Jahr wird wieder ein weltweites Wirtschaftswachstum im Bereich von rund vier Prozent erwartet. Entsprechend optimistisch präsentiert sich Wirtschaftsprofessor Nouriel Roubini, New York University, im Interview mit Börse Stuttgart TV. Die Stimmung trüben könnte jedoch die Eurozone, diese sei noch "immer sehr zerbrechlich", so Roubini.





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Markets Are not all the Same

"The threat of a full-fledged currency, sovereign-debt, and banking crisis remains low, even in the Fragile Five, for several reasons,"
 "All have flexible exchange rates, a large war chest of reserves to shield against a run on their currencies and banks, and fewer currency mismatches (for example, heavy foreign-currency borrowing to finance investment in local-currency assets). Many also have sounder banking systems, while their public and private debt ratios, though rising, are still low, with little risk of insolvency." Roubini wrote  in a new piece for Project Syndicate.

"Over time, optimism about emerging markets is probably correct," Roubini continued. "Many have sound macroeconomic, financial, and policy fundamentals. Moreover, some of the medium-term fundamentals for most emerging markets, including the fragile ones, remain strong: urbanization, industrialization, catch-up growth from low per capita income, a demographic dividend, the emergence of a more stable middle class, the rise of a consumer society, and the opportunities for faster output gains once structural reforms are implemented."

However, "it is not fair to lump all emerging markets into one basket; differentiation is needed," warned Roubini.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Many Emerging Markets are in real trouble

"Many emerging markets are in real trouble" Roubini wrote early this month in an article for Project Syndicate. "The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa (the 'Fragile Five'), because all have twin fiscal and current-account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative and/or presidential elections this year."

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Tech to Replace White Collar Jobs

(Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics and Ian Bremmer, President at Eurasia Group, discuss the lingering effects of the financial crisis and the global risks for the year ahead from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.”





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Emerging Markets fall back to earth

by Nouriel Roubini

The financial turmoil that hit emerging-market economies last spring, following the US Federal Reserve's "taper tantrum" over its quantitative easing (QE) policy, has returned with a vengeance. This time, the trigger was a confluence of several events: a currency crisis in Argentina, where the authorities stopped intervening in the forex markets to prevent the loss of foreign reserves; weaker economic data from China; and persistent political uncertainty and unrest in Turkey, Ukraine and Thailand.

This mini-perfect storm in emerging markets was soon transmitted, via international investors' risk aversion, to advanced economies' stock markets. But the immediate trigger for these pressures should not be confused with their deeper causes: many emerging markets are in real trouble.
The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa – dubbed the "Fragile Five" because all have twin fiscal and current-account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative and/or presidential elections this year. But five other significant countries – Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary and Thailand – are also vulnerable. Political and/or electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.
read more @ http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/03/emerging-markets-nouriel-roubini
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : 'Fragile Five' face low risk of full-fledged crisis

The Fragile Five Emerging Economies are : India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa  
Roubini : "All have flexible exchange rates, a large war chest of reserves to shield against a run on their currencies and banks and fewer currency mismatches (for example, heavy foreign-currency borrowing to finance investment in local-currency assets)," Roubini, nicknamed Dr. Doom for his generally bearish views, wrote in an op-ed on the Project Syndicate website on Friday. "Many also have sounder banking systems, while their public and private debt ratios, though rising, are still low, with little risk of insolvency," he said. "The short-run policy tradeoffs that many of these countries face - damned if they tighten monetary and fiscal policy fast enough, and damned if they do not - remain ugly," he said.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : The Trouble with Emerging Markets

Nouriel Roubini

LAGOS – The financial turmoil that hit emerging-market economies last spring, following the US Federal Reserve’s “taper tantrum” over its quantitative-easing (QE) policy, has returned with a vengeance. This time, the trigger was a confluence of several events: a currency crisis in Argentina, where the authorities stopped intervening in the forex markets to prevent the loss of foreign reserves; weaker economic data from China; and persistent political uncertainty and unrest in Turkey, Ukraine, and Thailand.

This mini perfect storm in emerging markets was soon transmitted, via international investors’ risk aversion, to advanced economies’ stock markets. But the immediate trigger for these pressures should not be confused with their deeper causes: Many emerging markets are in real trouble.

The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa – dubbed the “Fragile Five,” because all have twin fiscal and current-account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative and/or presidential elections this year. But five other significant countries – Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand – are also vulnerable. Political and/or electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.

Then, there are the over-hyped BRICS countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the United States this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) GDP rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries’ potential growth.

The largest of the BRICS, China, faces additional risk stemming from a credit-fueled investment boom, with excessive borrowing by local governments, state-owned enterprises, and real-estate firms severely weakening the asset portfolios of banks and shadow banks. Most credit bubbles this large have ended up causing a hard economic landing, and China’s economy is unlikely to escape unscathed, particularly as reforms to rebalance growth from high savings and fixed investment to private consumption are likely to be implemented too slowly, given the powerful interests aligned against them.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-explains-why-many-previously-fast-growing-economies-suddenly-find-themselves-facing-strong-headwinds#TC6i3WSDheYSMwjB.99

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini on The Fragile Five Currency Crisis

"Nonetheless, the threat of a full-fledged currency, sovereign-debt, and banking crisis remains low, even in the Fragile Five, for several reasons. All have flexible exchange rates, a large war chest of reserves to shield against a run on their currencies and banks, and fewer currency mismatches (for example, heavy foreign-currency borrowing to finance investment in local-currency assets). Many also have sounder banking systems, while their public and private debt ratios, though rising, are still low, with little risk of insolvency.
"Over time, optimism about emerging markets is probably correct. Many have sound macroeconomic, financial, and policy fundamentals. Moreover, some of the medium-term fundamentals for most emerging markets, including the fragile ones, remain strong: urbanization, industrialization, catch-up growth from low per capita income, a demographic dividend, the emergence of a more stable middle class, the rise of a consumer society, and the opportunities for faster output gains once structural reforms are implemented. So it is not fair to lump all emerging markets into one basket; differentiation is needed." - in Project Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Japan-China war of words goes ballistic in Davos

Nouriel: “Japan-China war of words goes ballistic in Davos” and “A black swan in the form of a war between China & Japan?” along with various comments on the emerging market issues, saying, “Argentina currency crisis & contagion to other EM – on top of weak China PMI – suggests that some emerging markets are still fragile.”


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

BRICS: Absence of demographic divided

The fifth reason, which ails the BRICS economies (specifically China and Russia), according to Roubini, is the absence of demographic dividend as the population is ageing for a number of reasons. Lower population growth is associated with lower potential growth, he observed. - in http://www.firstpost.com



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Excessive role of State-owned Economies

 Secondly, not only did these economies fail to implement market oriented reforms, they moved towards a growth regime based on state capitalism, wherein there is an excessive role of state-owned entities in the economy, he added.


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Commodity Super-cycle is Over

the commodity super-cycle is probably over — for a variety of reasons — and this hurts the BRICS that are commodity exporters: Russia, Brazil and South Africa. “Given the slowdown of China, after years of high prices, commodity prices may fall further, hurting the growth of the commodity oriented BRICS,” said Roubini, well known for his bubble warnings and doom scenarios. - in www.firstpost.com


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The BRICS are in the midst of a midlife Crisis

“Are the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and, its most recent member, South Africa) in the midst of a midlife crisis? Based on recent data, this would appear to be the case,” said Roubini
“Three of the five BRICS (Brazil, India and South Africa) are now part of what investors consider the Fragile Five emerging market economies (the other two being Turkey and Indonesia).
“These fragile emerging markets share weaknesses, such as large current account deficits, large fiscal deficits, falling growth, rising inflation and political and policy uncertainty, and they all face parliamentary or presidential elections this year,” he said.- in firstpost.com


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Main Theme at Davos 2014 : The Rising Tension between China & Japan

Probably the biggest one was the rising tension between China and Japan. People are starting to make comparisons to 1914: You have a rising power facing an existing power, and in the past that has led to war.
Of course, it's not inevitable, but both the Japanese side and even the Chinese side have made bellicose statements. So I hope diplomacy can succeed but I'd say that that was one of the big stories.

- in businessinsider.com

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini in Davos -- China Hard Landing

"I worry that this is going to be a gradual process and China is not going to rebalance fast enough, compared to what is desirable and optimal, and therefore the risk of a potential hard landing have not been totally, actually cleared yet,"
"They (the government) could be successful in this rebalancing but I would like to point out some elements, or at least skepticism, of why things might not turn out. And if you don't rebalance, instead of a soft landing you get a hard landing." said Roubini, the co-founder of Roubini Global Economics, speaking at the World Economic in Davos


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Central Banks of the G4 Countries are not going to exit the Near-Zero Policy Rates this Year

Roubini: We don't worry about inflation. We think that accommodation is not going to be inflationary because there is still a significant slack in goods and labor markets. Therefore, our baseline this year is growth either at potential or below potential for advanced economies, and that implies that inflation is going to remain low—below the 2 percent of the formal or informal target of central banks for all of the major advanced economies, from the U.S. to eurozone, to Japan, even the U.K.
And that’s going to imply that therefore the central banks of the G4 countries are not going to exit the near-zero policy rates this year. The exit for near-zero policy rates is going to be only next year. Yes, the Fed is going to taper. Yes, the Bank of England is not going to do more quantitative easing. But we see actually more unconventional monetary policy accommodation done by the Bank of Japan and by the European Central Bank.
Therefore, the outlook of moderate growth, low inflation and continuing monetary accommodation and a slow exit from conventional, unconventional monetary easing implies that bond yields gradually are going to go higher, but not much higher.
That means our forecast, say, for 10-year U.S. Treasurys is that by the end of this year, yields will be around 3.4 percent. Now, that’s a negative real return [including capital losses], but it’s not a disaster or a rout for the bond market. In the mild environment of low inflation, moderate growth and accommodation, we see the pickup in bond yields in the U.S. being barely 60 basis points. Same thing for bunds; same thing for gilts; and for Japan even less, maybe by year-end, 10-year JGBs [Japanese government bonds] will be at 1 percent as opposed to 0.7 or 0.8 percent. - in IndexUniverse


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: I’m not “Dr. Doom,” I’m “Dr. Realist.”

Nouriel Roubini: First of all, I’m not “doom-and-gloom.” I’m not “Dr. Doom,” I’m “Dr. Realist.” I predicted correctly the trouble when it did occur, but the global economy has been recovering now for a few years from a very severe financial crisis. And I would say that compared to a year ago or even two years ago, some of the tail risks to the global economy today are lower.
For example: the tail risks of breakup of the eurozone or Italy and Spain losing market access; the tail risk of another fiscal crisis in the U.S. with a fight on the debt ceiling or on the government shutdown; the tail risk at least in the short run of a hard landing of China; or the tail risk of a war between Israel and Iran that then there's a spike in oil prices.
Those are four of the important systemic tail risks in a global economy. I would say this year they are less likely than last year, and last year they were already less likely than in 2012. - in IndexUniverse


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Advanced Economies are Growing Faster this Year than last Year

Roubini: The advanced economies are growing faster this year than last year, say, closer to 2 percent rather than 1 percent. But within this group of advanced economies, the U.S. and U.K. are going to do better than 2 percent, while Japan and the eurozone are going to do worse than 2 percent. So there’s a differentiation. - in indexuniverse

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

4 of the important Systemic Tail Risks in a Global Economy

Nouriel Roubini : First of all, I’m not “doom-and-gloom.” I’m not “Dr. Doom,” I’m “Dr. Realist.” I predicted correctly the trouble when it did occur, but the global economy has been recovering now for a few years from a very severe financial crisis. And I would say that compared to a year ago or even two years ago, some of the tail risks to the global economy today are lower.
For example: the tail risks of breakup of the eurozone or Italy and Spain losing market access; the tail risk of another fiscal crisis in the U.S. with a fight on the debt ceiling or on the government shutdown; the tail risk at least in the short run of a hard landing of China; or the tail risk of a war between Israel and Iran that then there's a spike in oil prices.
Those are four of the important systemic tail risks in a global economy. I would say this year they are less likely than last year, and last year they were already less likely than in 2012. - in Indexuniverse


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

In Japan, Abe puts an end to decades long Deflation

In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government has made significant headway in overcoming almost two decades of deflation, thanks to monetary easing and fiscal expansion. The main uncertainties stem from the coming increase in the consumption tax and slow implementation of the third “arrow” of “Abenomics,” namely structural reforms and trade liberalization. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini vs Ian Bremmer Debate on US Growth in 2014

Roubini believes that the U.S. is going to grow about 2.5 percent this year “I fear that much of the U.S. workforce doesn’t have the skill set and education to compete [and capitalize on new technology],” said Roubini. Roubini made his comments at a breakfast event hosted on Friday by Time Inc. The conversation, which also included the Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer, was moderated by Time's Rana Foroohar



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Fed’s exit from QE will be slow, keeping Interest Rates Low

“Brisker recovery in advanced economies will boost imports from emerging markets. The Fed’s exit from quantitative easing will be slow, keeping interest rates low. Policy reforms in China will attenuate the risk of a hard landing. And, with many emerging markets still urbanising and industrialising, their rising middle classes will consume more goods and services.” - in Project-syndicate


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: 2014 will be Another Disappointing Year for The U.S. Economy

Roubini says growth will pick up, but not enough to produce raises for average American workers. That will limit Americans' ability to shop and pay down debt, two things the economy needs for sustained growth. At the same time, corporate earnings are slowing. And while stocks aren't in a bubble, Roubini says they now look expensive. What's more, he says the U.S. may not get as much of a boost from its growing energy supply in 2014 as many think.
"The question is whether we have gotten to sustainable growth that is not based on bubbles," says Roubini. "Not yet." - via www.finance.fortune.cnn.com



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini vs. El-Erian: How Bad Off Is the Economy?

Bloomberg Television's "Lunch Money" Host Matt Miller reports on the global economy. (Source: Bloomberg)


 

The arguably more positive outlook about the US and the global economy implies that over time the Federal Reserve and other central banks will exit from quantitative easing and zero interest policy rates, which means that real rates will rise, rather than fall. With gold performing better in a zero or negative interest rate environment Roubini thus sees its attraction waning as interest rates start to rise.Roubini argues that some of the Central banks of the more indebted nations may be tempted to liquidate part of their gold holdings and thus further depress the gold market. He points specifically to Cyprus where a report that it might sell a small fraction -- some €400 million ($520 million) -- of its gold reserves may have contributed to triggering a 13% fall in gold prices in April. Countries like Italy, which has massive gold reserves (above $130 billion), he says, could be similarly tempted, driving down prices further Roubini comments..
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

[VIDEO] Swiss Business TV: Nouriel Roubini

 Prof. Nouriel Roubini, der Starökonom aus New York, über die Finanzkrise, die globale Elite und Prognosen für die Wirtschaft.




Nouriel Roubini (* 29. März 1958 in Istanbul, Türkei) ist ein US-amerikanischer Nationalökonom und Professor an der Stern School of Business in New York City und Gründer und Vorsitzender von Roubini Global Economics LLC, Anbieter für Kapitalmarkt und Wirtschaftsinformationen. Vor seiner Tätigkeit als Professor war er Berater des U.S. Treasury Departments.

Nouriel Roubini wurde als Sohn iranischer Juden in Istanbul geboren. Seine Familie siedelte nach Teheran über als er zwei Jahre alt war und dann nach Tel Aviv, später nach Italien und endlich in die USA. In Italien wuchs er auf und ging zur Schule. Er spricht deshalb Persisch, Hebräisch, Italienisch und Englisch. Er war stets in der Rolle des Aussenseiters, war vielleicht dazu beigetragen hat, dass er sich bis heute nicht um Mehrheitsmeinungen kümmert.

Roubini studierte von 1977 bis 1982 an der Wirtschaftsuniversität Luigi Bocconi, Wirtschaftswissenschaften, nachdem er zuvor ein Jahr an der Hebräischen Universität Jerusalem (Israel) gelernt hatte.

Nach seinem Abschluss wechselte er 1983 an die Harvard University, wo er 1988 promoviert wurde. Seinen Doktorvater Jeffrey Sachs beeindruckte er mit seinem Doppeltalent: Nouriel Roubini fühlte sich ebenso in der Mathematik zu Hause wie in der Analyse von politischen und wirtschaftlichen Institutionen. An der Yale-Universität (New Haven, Connecticut, USA) lehrte Roubini von 1988 bis 1995. Hier traf er Robert Shiller, jenem Wirtschaftswissenschaftler, der sehr früh die Blase bei Internet- und Technologieaktien erkannte.

The Global Economy will Grow faster in 2014

In sum, the global economy will grow faster in 2014, while tail risks will be lower. But, with the possible exception of the US, growth will remain anemic in most advanced economies, and emerging-market fragility – including China’s uncertain efforts at economic rebalancing – could become a drag on global growth in subsequent years. - in www.project-syndicate.org

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics