Portugal is increasingly likely to need an international bailout after Ireland , Re-known economist Nouriel Roubini told on Monday 29 November the Portuguese daily Diario Economico. "....If things get out of control as appears to happen in Portugal must do everything up now to improve the situation, "says Dr. Nouriel Roubini aka Dr. Doom .".....It is becoming increasingly likely. On the one hand, there are differences between Ireland and Spain which have a huge housing bubble burst and the enormous loss of their financial systems, especially Ireland. In Portugal, basically, the problems are not as severe as those of Greece, but are very similar to those of Greece, in that they were driven by fiscal policy lapses and problems in the private sector that forced the state to intervene through nationalizations .What is common to all peripheral European countries - Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy - are huge deficits, huge amounts of debt, loss of competitiveness that started ten years ago or more, when these countries have lost market export to other countries with cheaper products in China, in emerging markets in Asia, Central Europe, Turkey ... And then the sharp appreciation of the euro between 2002 and 2008. Now, not only is the deficit and debt to accumulate, but also a series of problems and bad deals in the private sector, with huge deficits in their accounts. They all lost competitiveness...." he added via http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/vao-agora-ao-fmi-pecam-o-dinheiro-agora_105580.html
The "La Ciudad de las Ideas 2009 Re-Evolution" Festival witnessed a very exciting event, where great theologists, philosophers and thinkers debated over the eternal conflict between science and religion, reason with faith and Darwin vs The Bible. The opinions and views expressed are strong, we recommend open-mindedness for its enjoyment.
Debaters: Sam Harris, Christopher Hitchens, Daniel Dennett (new atheists) vs. Shmuley Boteach, Dinesh D'Souza, Nassim Taleb (theists), and Robert Wright (neutral).
"Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Inside Track" this morning to talk about QE2. Taleb compared U.S. central bank policy makers to the managers of Long-Term Capital Management LP, the hedge fund that failed in 1998.
The opening video of the seventh edition of the World Business Forum in Milan (with Al Gore, Paul Krugman, Nassim Taleb, Francis Fukuyama, Don Tapscott, Renée Mauborgne, Ram Charan, Dave Ulrich, Mario Moretti Polegato, Francesco Casoli)
In an interview with Reuters on Nov 23 Nouriel Roubiniprofessor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University said that he expect to see the Eurozone eventually shrinking to fewer members regarding the Quantitative Easing in the US Roubini says : my view it is a necessary evil because growth is well below potential , inflation is low and falling , the tail risk of deflation and double dip was sharp in the summer and one of the reasons that that tail risk was somehow reduced is because Ben Bernanke pre announced QE2 in August already and since then stock market went up government bond yields went down ....etc...
"The risk ... is that something on the fiscal side will snap ... The trigger could be a debt rollover crisis in a major US state government," "The worst of the coming fiscal train wreck will be prevented by the Fed's easing. But the risk is (Obama) ... will then preside over ... a Japanese style stagnation, where growth is barely positive, and deflationary pressures and high unemployment linger." Roubini wrote in a commentary for the Financial Times
The Black Swan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that banks should be regarded as performing a function similar to that of utility companies, and should be separated from riskier investment vehicles such as hedge funds. "Banks cannot be entrusted with risk taking," he says.
Author Nassim Taleb and Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman discuss the intricacies of the financial crisis and its far-reaching influence.
Looking forward, they offer proposals to remedy the situation and prevent it from ever recurring.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an essayist, belletrist, and researcher only interested in one single topic, chance (particularly extreme and rare events, the "Black Swans" i.e. outliers); but it falls at the intersection of philosophy/epistemology, philosophy/ethics, mathematical sciences, social science/finance, and cognitive science. Taleb is currently a researcher at London Business School. He the Deans Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty University of Massachusetts at Amherst, Fellow in Mathematics in Finance, Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University (since 1999), and research fellow, Wharton School Financial Institutions Center, and Chairman, Empirica LLC. Taleb held senior trading positions with trading houses in New York and London and operated as a floor trader before founding Empirica LLC. His degrees include an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from the University of Paris. He is the author of Dynamic Hedging, Fooled by Randomness, and The Black Swan.
Nouriel Roubini : "You can try to ring fence Spain. And you can essentially try to provide financing officially to Ireland, Portugal, and Greece for three years. Leave them out of the market. Maybe restructure their debt down the line...But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain. Spain is too big to fail on one side—and also too big to be bailed out."
"The next one in line is going to be Portugal. Due to the severity of Portuguese debt problems, Portugal is going to lose market access—and that means they are going to require IMF support as well."
"Now you have a bunch of super sovereigns— the IMF, the EU, the eurozone—bailing-out these sovereigns...There's not going to be anyone coming from Mars or the moon to bail-out the IMF or the Eurozone." Roubini said recently in a CNBC interview
Nov. 19 2010 | Fed chief Bernanke scolding China and others in his Frankfurt speech saying currency manipulation is hurting the global recovery, with Jim Rickards, Omnis; Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group; and Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics.
Nov. 19 2010 | Discussing whether the second round of quantitative easing will be the catalyst for another round of crisis economics around the world, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics, and Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group.
Nouriel Roubini : “I believe that gold is going to trade around current levels,” “There are two extreme events that lead to a spike in gold. One is inflation, but we have no inflation in advanced economies. If anything, there is a risk of deflation.” “The other event in which gold prices go up is the risk of a global financial meltdown, and that tail risk has been reduced because we backstopped the financial system,”
Nouriel Roubini : “My base scenario is that we will have a slow, U-shaped recovery in the advanced economies, but still there is a probability of a double-dip recession, or near depression, as in Japan in the 1990s,” “The recovery in advanced economies is still very tentative.” “If growth is only 1%, it is going to feel like recession, though technically it will not be a recession,” “You don’t create private jobs, the budget deficit widens, house prices go down instead of stabilising.”
COPENHAGEN: Fund managers should consider African markets such as Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania rather than chasing crowded emerging market trades elsewhere, economist Nouriel Roubini said.
“It (Africa) is risky because there is less liquidity and the governance is not ideal. But in comparison to 10 years ago when there was civil strife and unstable governments, many things have improved,” Roubini said. Roubini, professor of economics and international business at the Stern School of Business in New York, is best known for forecasting the credit crunch. read more >>>>
Troika Dialog - the conference sponsor has kindly granted me a written permission to publish this video. For more information about The Russia Forum and original (full version) video please visit: http://2010.therussiaforum.com/news/n...
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- You gotta watch this. Nassim Taleb, New York University professor and author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to initiate another round of quantitative easing. Taleb, speaking with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "Inside Track," also talks about his new book "The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms."
"A fixed exchange regime, even if it is not a gold standard… that world just doesn't work. Because in that world, monetary policy by definition instead of being countercyclical becomes procyclical," "Suppose you have a fixed exchange rate regime...it just exacerbates the business cycle." Roubini said in an interview with NetNet yesterday
NOURIEL ROUBINI:".... Unfortunately, I think we're going to have a very severe recession. It's going to last at least 18 months through the middle of next year. And this financial crisis is not going to be over anytime soon.
And the problems are not just problems of housing. Housing has not yet bottomed out. Home prices are going to fall for another 15 percent for a cumulative fall of 40 percent.
The problem was not just subprime mortgage. It was subprime mortgages, near-prime mortgages, prime mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, commercial real estate, muni bonds, leverage loans that finance deals that should have never occurred, and even a fat tail of the corporate system as a huge amount of junk bond debt is borderline unprofitable and is going to get in trouble.
We have the biggest housing and asset bubble and credit bubble in U.S. history. Now it's going to burst, and many institutions, households, home-builders, financial institutions, and corporations are going to go bust..." Nouriel Roubini interviewed by PBS Newshour
Nouriel Roubini talks about the world economic outlook for rest of 2010. Validation of all of our news stories that lie to us and tell us that everything is getting better. All it will take is a major power like Greece, Italy, Spain, or Japan to fall and it will send a ripple effect around the world. These countries could be the spark! Scary! And you thought it was bad now! Time to prepare!
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author, "The Black Swan," and NYU professor, discusses who was at fault for the financial crisis, the idea that regulation doesn't work, and why debt is a bad thing. This is part 2 of the presentation which includes a question and answer session at the end
In his new documentary Inside Job, filmmaker Charles Ferguson spoke to some of the biggest names from Wall Street to Washington to academia to get a first hand account of what caused the 2008 financial meltdown and how the financial system reach its breaking point.
Nouriel Roubini :.``..It's not just about housing. This is a severe economic and financial crisis. And the only light at the end of the tunnel so far is the one of the incoming train wreck, unfortunately...``
LONDON: The US economy is a "fiscal train wreck" waiting to happen that risks ushering in a period of stagnation featuring by minimal growth, high unemployment and deflationary pressure, US economist Nouriel Roubini wrote on Friday.
In a commentary for the Financial Times, Roubini -- one of the first economists to predict the housing crash in the United States and known as 'Dr Doom' for his pessimistic forecasts -- said fiscal and monetary stimulus had prevented another depression. read entire article>>>>>
LONDON: The US economy is a “fiscal train wreck” waiting to happen that risks ushering in a period of stagnation featuring minimal growth, high unemployment and deflationary pressure, US economist Nouriel Roubini wrote on Friday.
In a commentary for The Financial Times, Roubini — one of the first economists to predict the housing crash in the United States and known as ‘Dr Doom’ for his pessimistic forecasts — said fiscal and monetary stimulus had prevented another depression.
But he said that further quantitative easing likely to be announced by the Federal Reserve next Wednesday will have little effect on US growth in 2011, “so fiscal policy should be doing some of the lifting to prevent a double dip recession”, he said. continue reading the article >>>>
Nouriel Roubini nicknamed Dr. Doom and lately Dr. Realist by CNBC , is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm . Prof. Nouriel Roubini A world-class economist who offers an unflinching look at the global meltdown and distinctive insights into its course going forward. His research on financial crisis in emerging economics has yielded a unique and now vindicated approach to future collapses. Roubini speaks on the global economic outlook and its implications for the financial markets. From his analysis of past collapses of emerging economies, he has identified common factors that support his predictions of crisis in the US and world markets. He has held several high-level advisory positions in the US government and international finance organisations, published numerous policy papers and books on key international macro-economic issues and is regularly cited as an authority in