Nouriel : We learned the lessons of the Great Depression

Nouriel Roubini : Yes, the Federal Reserve can help and so far it has helped. The fact that the Great Recession of '08/'13 did not turn into another Great Depression is due to the fact that we learned the lessons of the Great Depression. And it means that in the short term we need more fiscal stimulus. The reality however is that we're running out of policy bullets. Politically, we're not going to be able to bailout the banks and the bankers for a second time. I think there will be a political backlash against it.
So if things are to turn sour compared to '08, when we had all the policy bullets, this time around would be worse. - in NPR

Roubini : The Tax Burden on The Rich is still Low

Nouriel Roubini : Unfortunately the U.S. political system is in a gridlock. And the reality is that in the medium time we have to reduce our budget deficit, and the way to do it is going to be a combination of reforming Social Security and Medicare on one side, but also gradually increasing the tax burden because right now it's very low, especially on those who can pay.
And while we have to do fiscal austerity, if we do too much of it, next year or in the next couple of years, the risk, like in the Eurozone, is that we end up into another recession because austerity, however necessary, in the short run has a negative effect on economic growth. - in NPR Interview

Nouriel : Eurozone breakup unavoidable

Nouriel Roubini :....If a gradual process of disintegration eventually makes a eurozone breakup unavoidable, the path chosen by Germany and the ECB – large-scale financing for the eurozone periphery – would destroy the core central banks’ balance sheets. Worse still, massive losses resulting from the materialization of credit risk might jeopardize core eurozone economies’ debt sustainability, placing the survival of the European Union itself in question. In that case, surely an “orderly divorce” now is preferable to a messy split down the line. - in project-syndicate

Roubini : China Stocks Drop to Lowest Level

Nouriel Roubini : " China Stocks Drop to Lowest Level This Month on Property, Policy http://bloom.bg/RuAKk7 via @BloombergNews " - in twitter

China Hard Landing by 2013

NOURIEL ROUBINI:....  I would argue that in Germany in the core of the eurozone, there is also bailout fatigue. They say, for example, the Greeks had a Big Fat Greek Wedding, not for long weekend but for the last 20 years. We give them a first bailout, a second bailout, many Germans want to pull the plug.
In China, you have a new government at the end of the year. Either they move away from net exports, from too much savings, from too much capital investments towards more consumption, or otherwise by next year China could have also a hard landing.
In the U.S., we have shale gas. I think it has been hyped a bit too much. It's going to help the energy needs of the U.S., but that revolution may take 10 to 20 years. If there is a war in the Middle East next year, the shock to all prices is going to tip the U.S. into a recession because we're not going to be energy independent for at least another decade. - in NPR

Roubini : Spain may end up in Troika

Nouriel Roubini : " If Rajoy waits too long to trigger the EFSF, those in ECB & core EZ against SMP2.0 may end up having upper hand & Spain may end up in Troika " - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini ‏: McCain Would not have been Better for The Economy

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " It would have been much worse "I don’t think that if McCain had been elected the economy would be any better than it is today" says Nouriel "  - in twitter

Roubini : Turkey Eurabia or EU Membership

Nouriel Roubini : Indeed, Turkey may take long term view & prepare for Eurabia.. @SPIEGEL_English: Turkey and the Euro Crisis: EU Membership Losing Its Appeal - in twitter

Nouriel : Germany & the Eurozone core Outsourced Official Financing of the Eurozone

Nouriel :....Thus, Germany and the eurozone core have increasingly outsourced official financing of the eurozone’s distressed members to the ECB. If Italy and Spain are illiquid but solvent, and large-scale financing provides enough time for austerity and economic reforms to restore debt sustainability, competitiveness, and growth, the current strategy will work and the eurozone will survive. In the process, some form of fiscal and banking union may also emerge, together with some progress on political integration. But, however important the fiscal and banking union elements of this process may be, the key is whether large-scale financing and gradual adjustments can restore sustainable growth in time. This will require considerable patience from governments and publics in the core and periphery alike – in the former to maintain large-scale financing, and in the latter to avoid a social and political backlash against years of painful contraction and loss of welfare. - (excerpt from his oped article in the project-syndicate)

Nouriel : Q3 improvement may be head fake

Nouriel Roubini : " Empire State & Philly Fed surveys remain depressed bucking the better signals from industrial production. Q3 improvement may be head fake " - in twitter

Roubini : An Early Breakup of the Eurozone may at least Save the EU

Nouriel Roubini : Whether the eurozone is viable or not remains an open question. But what if a breakup can only be postponed, not avoided? If so, delaying the inevitable would merely make the endgame worse – much worse.
Germany increasingly recognizes that if the adjustment needed to restore growth, competitiveness, and debt sustainability in the eurozone’s periphery comes through austerity and internal devaluation rather than debt restructuring and exit (leading to the reintroduction of sharply depreciated national currencies), the cost will most likely be trillions of euros. Indeed, sufficient official financing will be needed to allow cross-border and even domestic investors to exit. As investors reduce their exposure to the eurozone periphery’s sovereigns, banks, and corporations, both flow and stock imbalances will need to be financed. The adjustment process will take many years, and, until policy credibility is fully restored, capital flight will continue, requiring massive amounts of official finance.
Until recently, such official finance came from fiscal authorities (the European Financial Stability Facility, soon to be the European Stability Mechanism) and the International Monetary Fund. But, increasingly, official financing is coming from the European Central Bank – first with bond purchases, and then with liquidity support to banks and the resulting buildup of balances within the eurozone’s Target2 payment system. With political constraints in Germany and elsewhere preventing further strengthening of fiscally-based firewalls, the ECB now plans to provide another round of large-scale financing to Spain and Italy (with more bond purchases). - in Project Syndicate Click Here to Read More >>>>>

Roubini : 35 percent Probability to get a Global Perfect Storm next year

Nouriel Roubini : Well, I think that the Goldilocks scenario in which everything becomes much better over the next, say, 18 months, between now and the end of next year, has a 10 percent probability. A world in which we continue to have a euro-zone recession but you don’t have a breakup, but things remain ugly; you have growth in the U.S. close to stall speed, but not a recession; slow growth in China and the emerging markets; and we avoid a war in the Middle East but we still have tension is maybe, you know, a 55 percent probability scenario. Then the rest of it is 35 percent. So, I would say there is a one-third probability to get a global perfect storm next year. - in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini Biography By himself

Nouriel Roubini : My father was doing business in Turkey, so I was born there in ’58. But then he decided that we should go back to Iran when I was a year old for business reasons. And then we went to Israel for a couple of years. By the time I was five, we had moved to Italy, and then we settled down there. My family is a Jewish Iranian family, but I was born in Turkey and raised in Italy. So it’s a very mixed background. - in bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini 3 Scenarios for the World Economy

Nouriel Roubini : I would say that there are three scenarios. One is continued economic and financial difficulties in advanced economies, but short of another perfect storm. So economic weakness in advanced economies, but avoiding another global economic and financial crisis.
Another one is a global perfect storm. This is more a downside scenario where the euro zone becomes disorderly and eventually you get more countries losing market access, more countries defaulting, more countries exiting the euro zone. You get the U.S. slowing down and then having a stall speed and a bubble bursting. You get a hard landing in China. You get a stall in growth in emerging markets. And you get a war in the Middle East between Israel and the U.S. on one side and Iran [on the other]. You know, it’s a bubbling of all crises. That will be the perfect storm. You know, that perfect storm is not my baseline scenario, but I would say that all five of those negative trends in a less extreme way are already underway. The euro zone is a slow-motion train wreck. The U.S. is slowing down. The Chinese landing looks harder rather than softer. Other nations are slowing down. And the tensions in the Middle East might build up again. So you have a very bumpy road ahead this year and next year for the global economy.
Then you have an optimistic scenario in which maybe things improve in the U.S.—slowly, slowly. In which the euro zone muddles through and maybe goes toward a greater economic fiscal and political union. China is able to have a soft landing. Emerging markets do the structural reform that they need for growth. And we avoid conflict in the Middle East. Now, if all of those things are happening, well, I don’t expect that by next year the world goes into high economic growth, but maybe emerging markets can grow. And maybe after another two or three years of that bumpy road ahead, advanced economies go back to potential growth. Potential growth maybe is the best we can hope for, for the time being. - in Bloomberg interview

Roubini : Paul Ryan Economic Policies Are Stuck in the 1980s

Nouriel Roubini : " Paul Ryan’s Economic Policies Are Stuck in the 1980s: Mark Dow http://yhoo.it/MuiT9R Mark Dow is a very smart enlightened wise Republican |" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini Warning : Growth could be close to Zero by next Year

August 12, 2012 Linda Wertheimer interviews Nouriel Roubini, whose nickname is Dr. Doom, for the second installment in her series of big idea conversations with leading economists.
WERTHEIMER: The fiscal cliff is the decision that the Congress has to make, to either renew the President Bush's tax cuts or permit rather drastic cuts in spending and increases in taxes to take place.
ROUBINI: Yes, if all of those things were to occur, the drag on the economy could be very, very large and growth could be close to zero by next year. And we could be stuck and sulk again about stalled speed or a double-dip recession.

Roubini : The 1 Percent or the Elite dont fully realize how much pain suffering, and anxiety exists out there

Nouriel Roubini : Well, personally if I arrive in a country, the first thing I do is ask the cab driver how the economy is doing or what he thinks about their government. When I’m in the hotel, I ask the same questions, or I walk around and go to the local shopping center. You know, I try to get a sense. And when I’m in a country I also try to talk to people who are not necessarily purely the elite. I think it’s true that the 1 Percent or the elite are living in a world of, maybe, excessive privilege, and they don’t fully realize how much pain and suffering, how much anxiety exists out there. I think there are lots of things that we have to figure out to make sure that we don’t have a social and political backlash. - in businessinsider

Nouriel Roubini : I Travel A Lot

Nouriel Roubini : I travel about two-thirds to three-quarters of my time, mostly abroad. When I travel I meet, first, clients of RGE [Roubini Global Economics]. Second, prospects and people who may be interested in our work. Wherever I go, I tend to talk to policymakers in that particular country. I find time to think, to read, to write. I meet people in the financial and business sector. I talk with other intellectuals and economists. I do media wherever I go. Starting with a business breakfast or a business lunch or business dinner, I work nonstop. And often when I come back to the hotel, I have hundreds of e-mails to go through, and I write reports—you name it. But you know, I also try to make time to see friends. I love the visual and the performing arts, so museums, galleries, theater, music. I’m in touch all the time with my team wherever I am. We have a team in New York, in London, and in New Delhi. We have a 24/7 operation. - in businessinsider

Nouriel Roubini on Threats to the Global Economy

Nouriel Roubini : The underlying economic forces are partially independent of policy choices. I don’t think that if [John] McCain had been elected, the economy would be any better than it is today. Maybe even worse. And therefore, I think that once you have a crisis, once you have too much debt or once you have painful deleveraging, that cost of deleveraging has to occur over a period of many years, and economic policy is not going to make much of a difference. However, policymakers do make a difference, because the Great Recession could have ended up a great depression if we had not learned the lessons of the Great Depression. The case of deleveraging, whether it’s ugly or semi-ugly or less ugly, depends on doing some of the right things. I think that having massive monetary easing, having massive fiscal easing, having backstopped the financial system properly—sometimes not totally properly—made a difference. In Europe, in fact, where policy has been to accelerate the private- and the public-sector deleveraging, we are already double dipping. So policy can make a difference. - in Business Week

Nouriel Roubini Confirms Perfect Storm by 2013

Roubini : " Next year the world's problems -- from the sputtering recovery in the U.S. to monetary crisis in Europe to the slowdown in China -- could overwhelm the economy," The euro zone needs to move quickly toward closer fiscal and political integration or risk falling off a cliff, says NYU economist Nouriel Roubini in this interview

Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- On the occasion of Dr. Nouriel Roubini's participation in Bloomberg Businessweek's 'Interview Issue', a look back at some of the economist's sharpest words from the last year.

Roubini ‏: Greece to Exit The Eurozone by 2013

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " Draconian Troika program for Greece ensures deepening depression that will trigger Grexit by 2013. This government will collapse next year " - in twitter

Roubini : Germany in Recession

Nouriel Roubini :" Germany in recession @MarkitEconomics: German IP down -0.1% over Q2. Yesterday's chart of factory orders & IP updated. http://twitpic.com/agva6m " - in twitter

Roubini : Cash out of Gold - Gold no longer a haven

Nouriel Roubini : " Cash out of gold and send your kids to college. Why the yellow metal is no longer a haven http://on.ft.com/Rwn6vs " - in twitter

Roubini: London Deserted - Olympics An Economic Failure

Nouriel Roubini : " After Warnings of an Olympic Crush, Businesses Suffer in a Deserted London. New York Times http://soc.li/Io2Nv2k ""UK policymakers scared so much folks before the Olympic that London is a deserted city: non-olympic tourists are away; Londoners are gone! "
" The Olympics are an economic failure as London is totally empty:hotels, restaurants, streets. They scared all off with crowd excess warnings "
"By scaring every1 to stay out of London with warnings about too many people coming here it turns that London is totally empty, a zombie city ""The West End - usually packed on any Saturday night - was an empty waste land last nite: barely a soul to be found in theaters, bars, etc "
"They scared away all non-olympic tourists that pack London all summer;they pushed most Londoners to escape;they told 2million to work @ home " - in Twitter

Roubini : Wall Street eyes protection against Euro exit

Nouriel Roubini : "Wall St eyes protection against euro exit. FT. Can contracts be written to hedge against redomination risk? http://bit.ly/NvQRpA" - in twitter

Roubini : The Olympics An Economic Failure - London totally empty a zombie city

Nouriel Roubini : "UK policymakers scared so much folks before the Olympic that London is a deserted city: non-olympic tourists are away; londoners are gone! "
" The Olympics are an economic failure as London is totally empty:hotels, restaurants, streets. They scared all off with crowd excess warnings "
"By scaring every1 to stay out of London with warnings about too many people coming here it turns that London is totally empty, a zombie city ""The West End - usually packed on any Saturday night - was an empty waste land last nite: barely a soul to be found in theaters, bars, etc "
"They scared away all non-olympic tourists that pack london all summer;they pushed most londoners to escape;they told 2million to work @ home " - in Twitter

Roubini : The Eurozone Rubrik Cube becomes even more complex

Nouriel Roubini : " After meets in Brussels, Paris and Rome and conversations with Berlin/Frankfurt contacts the EZ Rubrik Cube becomes even more complex... "

Roubini : The ECB makes restart of SMP conditional on EFSF trigger

Nouriel Roubini :" As I argued yesterday ECB makes restart of SMP bond purchases conditional on government requesting EFSF activation http://bit.ly/N1Zx9m"
"As I correctly predicted the ECB would make restart of SMP conditional on EFSF trigger & would buy shorter term bonds http://bit.ly/N1Zx9m" - in twitter

Roubini ‏: London feels like a recession-empty city

Nouriel Roubini ‏:" It indeed feels like a recession-empty city @MKTWgoldstein: Awaiting Olympics-related recession metaphor in 5,4,3. @Nouriel: I am in London! " - in twitter

Roubini : QE3 is still highly likely in Q3 In spite of the Fed indecision

Nouriel Roubini : " In spite of the Fed indecision today QE3 is still highly likely in Q3 as the economy is stalling "

China closer to Hard Landing

Nouriel Roubini :" Chinese manufacturing PMI close to contraction showing a value barely above 50 (50.1). The weakest in 8 months. China closer to hard landing " - in twitter

These are crucial times for the future of the Eurozone

Nouriel Roubini : " I am in Rome today for policy and business meetings. These are crucial times for the future of the Eurozone "

Nouriel Roubini: 5 Reasons for Economic Optimism

Nouriel Roubini: 5 Reasons for Economic Optimism .Next year the world's problems -- from the sputtering recovery in the U.S. to monetary crisis in Europe to the slowdown in China -- could overwhelm the economy, says NYU economist Nouriel Roubini

Dr. Doom 2013 prediction: Economist Nouriel Roubini recently stated that a "perfect storm" for economic disaster is currently brewing, and he stands behind his beliefs. Considering Roubini is the guy who accurately predicted the country's previous financial disaster, it's safe to assume that countless buttholes are being clenched whenever this guy has something to say. And while you may think the 2008 crisis was the worst that could happen, Dr. Doom feels that 2013 is going to be much worse. Roubini, who teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business, explained the economic disaster looming on the horizon could cause the global financial system to "grind to a halt", which isn't the sort of thing you want to hear when you're attempting to keep your family's heads above water. Most folks are still trying desperately to regain the foothold they lost during 2008′s disaster, never mind preparing for a much larger problem down the road. Dr. Doom's theory: Tax increases and spending cuts will push the United States into yet another recession. This, combined with Europe's debt crisis, China's wonky economy, and a potential military presence in Iran, could shove most of the civilized world towards a complete collapse. The problem, of course, is that we're quickly heading towards the point of no return. Unless something is done immediately to turn the tide, turmoil seems inevitable. "There might be a weak rally because people are being cheered by more quantitative easing by (Chairman Ben) Bernanke and the Fed, but if the economy is weakening, that is going to put downward pressure on earnings growth," Roubini explained.

Roubini : 2012 a flat year for U.S. Stocks

Nouriel Roubini : “There might be a weak rally because people are being cheered by more quantitative easing by (Chairman Ben) Bernanke and the Fed, but if the economy is weakening, that is going to put downward pressure on earnings growth,”
“targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent, doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing, targeting nominal GDP, price-level targeting and lots of stuff that is more esoteric, Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities.” said Nouriel Roubini - in a recent interview with Reuters

Roubini ‏: Q3 now looks worse than Q2

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " GDP grew at a pathetically mediocre rate of 1.5% in Q2; final sales even worse at 1.2%. Q3 now looks worse than Q2. US is at stall speed " - in twitter