Roubini on India vs. China

Nouriel Roubini : "India has a significant trade imbalance with China in goods especially and that demand can become a problem. India cannot afford to have an early demise of its manufacturing. The risk is that cheap and good quality Chinese goods are going to crowd out Indian manufactured sector." - in Economic Times

Roubini Concerned About Crash in Markets

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini talks about the outlook for the global economy and the impact of central bank policy and austerity programs on growth. Roubini spoke with Bloomberg's Sara Eisen April 19 on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)

Nouriel Roubini on Central Bank Policies, Economy

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini talks about the outlook for the global economy and the impact of central bank policy and austerity programs on growth. Roubini spoke with Bloomberg's Sara Eisen April 19 on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini: Eurozone Austerity is making things worse

The austerity in the Eurozone, in the absence of policies to boost growth, will make the crisis worse rather than fix it, The Eurozone peripheral countries need "less front-loaded fiscal austerity" while Germany should start a fiscal stimulus programme to kick-start growth, "Today in the Eurozone there is absolutely no talk about a growth agenda" while there is plenty of discussion about banking and fiscal union, and in the absence of economic expansion, "you'll have eventually social and political backlash against austerity," " Roubini, said during an IMF conference in Washington under the title"Rethinking Macro Policy II: First Steps and Early Lessons .

Roubini ‏: Pier Luigi Bersani resignation plunges Italian politics into further chaos

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Pier Luigi Bersani resignation plunges Italian politics into further chaos http://bit.ly/17zUt49 - in twitter

Nassim Taleb ‏: I am personally boycotting Nestlé and ALL its Products

Nassim N. Taleb ‏: I am personally boycotting Nestlé and ALL its products http://bit.ly/12TwKLE . Everything they own. - in twitter

[Video] Nouriel Roubini Speech in Turkey

Roubini strarts at 03:37
Turkey's economy and the future direction of the world economy ' Nouriel Roubini / Economist / New York University, Uludag Economic Summit 2013

Nouriel Roubini: What we can expect from the Eurozone in 2013

Nouriel Roubini discusses what we can expect from the Eurozone in 2013.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event.

Nouriel Roubini: Which Emerging Markets to invest in

Nouriel Roubini discusses the outlook for other emerging markets.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event.

Nouriel Roubini: MENA region outlook for 2013

Nouriel Roubini: MENA region outlook for 2013


Nouriel Roubini discusses the outlook for the MENA region for 2013 and beyond.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event. 

Nouriel Roubini: How sequestration will impact US Growth

Nouriel Roubini discusses how the latest round of sequestration will impact US growth over the next year and beyond.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event.

Nouriel Roubini: Outlook for China in 2013

Nouriel Roubini discusses the outlook for China for 2013 and beyond.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event.

Roubini takes on Yellen, a clash for the ages

Chamberlain vs. Russell.  Magic vs. Bird. Gibson vs. Eckersley, and now Roubini vs. Yellen. Sometimes it takes one great competitor to bring out the best of another.

In a moment of magic at an otherwise dense IMF discussion of post-financial-crisis monetary policy, Nouriel Roubini, known for his pessimistic outlook and aversion to economic policymakers, procured a microphone and asked Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen if, maybe, just maybe, she was all wrong about the looming threat of asset bubbles.
Roubini had in mind Yellen’s earlier prepared remarks to the panel that she didn’t see any clear and present danger of an asset bubble and her conclusion that bank regulatory policy was the best flame retardant to combat any overheated markets.

He slyly noted that other top Fed officials, notably the new whiz kid of the Fed board, Jeremy Stein, have raised some doubts that  regulatory policy is the best way to burst a bubble.
read more  http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/16/roubini-takes-on-yellen-a-clash-for-the-ages/ >>>>>>

Roubini ‏: The Eurozone Malaise spreading to the core

Nouriel Roubini ‏: ZEW survey of German confidenxe plunges in April, now consistent with Ifo and PMI signals. EZ malaise spreading to the core - in twitter

Roubini ‏: BITCOIN dropped another 40% While everyone was focused on Gold & Silver

Nouriel Roubini ‏: In good company with Gold. @Convertbond: While everyone was focused on Gold and Silver, #BITCOIN dropped another 40%, traded below $58 - in twitter

Roubini : Gold Bugs Eat your Gold!

Nouriel Roubini : Gold Bugs & @JamesGRickards in stupefied catatonic state as gold now has fallen from a peak of $1950 in 2011 to $1350 today. Eat your gold! - in twitter

Roubini : Spain is The Elephant in The Room

Nouriel Roubini : "You can try to ring fence Spain. And you can essentially try to provide financing officially to Ireland, Portugal, and Greece for three years. Leave them out of the market. Maybe restructure their debt down the line." "But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain. Spain is too big to fail on one side—and also too big to be bailed out." - in recent interview with CNBC

Roubini : There is not going to be anyone coming from Mars or the moon to bail out the IMF or the Eurozone

Nouriel Roubini : "There's not going to be anyone coming from Mars or the moon to bail out the IMF or the Eurozone.""So at some point you need restructuring. At some point you need the creditors of the banks to take a hit —otherwise you put all this debt on the balance sheet of government. And then you break the back of government—and then government is insolvent." - in a recent interview with CNBC

Roubini ‏: Gold Loses Its Luster

Nouriel Roubini ‏: "Gold, Long a Secure Investment, Loses Its Luster NYT http://nyti.ms/16SYz6Z " - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Goldman Cuts Gold Price Forecast Through 2014

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Goldman Cuts Gold Price Forecast Through 2014 as Cycle Turns http://bloom.bg/153dFdX It lowered the 6 &12-month predictions to $1490 & $1390 - in twitter

Roubini : Japanese Rush to Sell Gold as Price in Yen Jumps

Nouriel Roubini : "Japanese Rush to Sell Gold as Price in Yen Jumps" So much for the view that yen fall will lead to more gold demand http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323820304578412283865306950.html … " - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Bitcoin another irrational useless bubble for the Gold-bug suckers

Nouriel Roubini ‏: "Bubble Bitcoin has appreciated by 10000% relative to gold in the last two years. So does it mean that we should all dump gold for Bitcoin? " "Gold-bug suckers found another irrational useless bubble fad, the Bitcoin, the bubble flavor of the day. So they are dissin gold 4 Bitcoin" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Gold Risky, Volatile Bubbly Asset with no Income

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Gold peaked at $1900 in Sept 2011. Now down to $1550. So where is gold at 2k, 3k, 4k, 10k? Gold risky, volatile bubbly asset with no income - in twitter

Roubini : Twitter worked fine with my blackberry phone while in China

Nouriel Roubini : Paul, Twitter worked fine with my blackberry phone while in China.. @paulmromer: Back from long visit in China (with no access to Twitter) - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini likes U.S. Stocks for Now

Nouriel Roubini : "I've been suggesting you should be overweight in the U.S. equities for the time being," "The forces of slow but improving growth, massive liquidity and continued Fed easing, reduction of tail risk, of low volatility, of low risk aversion can continue for awhile."

Nouriel Roubini : no one should think that any government bonds are completely safe, particularly from inflation and financial repression

Nouriel Roubini : A lot has changed since 2005. We had the financial crisis, and some of the factors cited by Bernanke have substantially reversed. For example, Asian investment is booming again, led by China. And yet global interest rates are even lower now than they were then. Why?
There are several competing theories, most of them quite elegant, but none of them entirely satisfactory. One view holds that long-term growth risks have been on the rise, raising the premium on assets that are perceived to be relatively safe, and raising precautionary saving in general. (Of course, no one should think that any government bonds are completely safe, particularly from inflation and financial repression.) Certainly, the 2008 financial crisis should have been a wakeup call to proponents of the “Great Moderation” view that long-term volatility has fallen. Many studies suggest that it is becoming more difficult than ever to anchor expectations about long-term growth trends. Witness, for example, the active debate about whether technological progress is accelerating or decelerating. Shifting geopolitical power also breeds uncertainty. - in project-syndicate

Roubini Sees Upside Surprise for Stocks, But ...

Nouriel Roubini likes U.S. stocks for the time being, but warns there are still some serious risks that could hurt equities.

Roubini : Japan is trying a new Economic Experiment to stop Deflation

Nouriel Roubini : Farther East, Japan is trying a new economic experiment to stop deflation, boost economic growth, and restore business and consumer confidence. “Abenomics” has several components: aggressive monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan; a fiscal stimulus this year to jump start demand, followed by fiscal austerity in 2014 to rein in deficits and debt; a push to increase nominal wages to boost domestic demand; structural reforms to deregulate the economy; and new free-trade agreements – starting with the Trans-Pacific Partnership – to boost trade and productivity. - in project-syndicate.org

Roubini : China has many Problems

Nouriel Roubini : In China, the leadership transition has occurred smoothly. But the country’s economic model remains, as former Premier Wen Jiabao famously put it, “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable.”  China’s problems are many: regional imbalances between its coastal regions and the interior, and between urban and rural areas; too much savings and fixed investment, and too little private consumption; growing income and wealth inequality; and massive environmental degradation, with air, water, and soil pollution jeopardizing public health and food safety. - in project-syndicate

The Global Economy on the Fly

by Nouriel Roubini :

ISTANBUL – In the last four weeks, I have traveled to Sofia, Kuala Lumpur, Dubai, London, Milan, Frankfurt, Berlin, Paris, Beijing, Tokyo, Istanbul, and throughout the United States. As a result, the myriad challenges facing the global economy were never far away.
In Europe, the tail risk of a eurozone break-up and a loss of market access by Spain and Italy were reduced by last summer’s decision by the European Central Bank to backstop sovereign debt. But the monetary union’s fundamental problems – low potential growth, ongoing recession, loss of competitiveness, and large stocks of private and public debt – have not been resolved.

Moreover, the grand bargain between the eurozone core, the ECB, and the periphery – painful austerity and reforms in exchange for large-scale financial support – is now breaking down, as austerity fatigue in the eurozone periphery runs up against bailout fatigue in core countries like Germany and the Netherlands.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/surveying-the-world-economy-s-myriad-problems-by-nouriel-roubini#IJFEHHeUud8XlvUI.99

Nouriel Roubini : The UK on the verge of triple Dip Recession

Nouriel Roubini : Indeed the UK on the verge of triple dip recession @D_Blanchflower: Bad cips manufacturing pmi for uk keeps fear of triple dip alive - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : US and Japan are in better shape compared to the rest of the developed countries

Nouriel Roubini : "Among advanced economies, the US is in the best relative shape, followed by Japan, where Abenomics is boosting confidence." - in a recent article

Nouriel Roubini : Arab Spring becomes Arab Nightmare

Nouriel Roubini : Arab Spring becomes Arab Nightmare "NYT: Egypt, Short of Money, Sees Crisis on Fuel and Food" http://bit.ly/YT9lGI - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini: Forget the G20, We Live in a G Zero World

Nouriel Roubini: Forget the G20, We Live in a G Zero World : The global disagreements that are making leadership and action difficult. |

Roubini Predicts Slower Growth in Russia

Russia's economy is facing a slowdown due to a lack of necessary structural reforms, according to a report by Roubini Global Economics, a macroeconomic research firm founded by economist Nouriel Roubini. According to the firm's estimates, GDP growth will slow to 3.3 percent this year, versus 3.4 percent last year. Growth next year is expected to drop to 3.2 percent. Despite the government's intention to move to an investment-fueled model of growth, consumption will remain the economy's main driver in 2013-14. - in the Moscow Times
Read more: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/roubini-predicts-slower-growth-in-russia/477597.html#ixzz2OrgZgM3xThe Moscow Times

Nouriel Roubini : How is the Eurozone Economy doing? In one word: Good! In two words? Not Good!

Nouriel Roubini : How's the Eurozone economy doing? In one word: "Good!" In two words? "Not Good!" - in twitter

Roubini : The Philippines was upgraded by Fitch to an Investment grade rating. A well deserved upgrade

Nouriel Roubini : As I predicted in Manila in early February the Philippines was upgraded by Fitch to an investment grade rating. A well deserved upgrade! - in twitter

Roubini : it’s not only monetary stimulus by the Fed that’s been driving stocks higher but also more unconventional monetary policy

Economist Nouriel Roubini of NYU’s Stern School of Business tells The Daily Ticker that it’s not only monetary stimulus by the Fed that’s been driving stocks higher but also “more unconventional monetary policy” from the ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. That stimulus is aimed at boosting economic growth and it may have helped, but the global economy is slowing.

In the fourth quarter, the major economies of the U.S., U.K, Japan and the Eurozone all contracted and they could slow even more because of spending cuts, says Roubini. “The core of the Eurozone has to do it, the U.S. has to do it…and when you have synchronized fiscal contraction the negative effects on economic growth are worse." - in Yahoo Finance

Roubini ‏: The problem of air/water quality & the issue of food safety is the most disruptive social issue in China

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " The problem of air/water quality & the issue of food safety is the most disruptive social issue in China. Local middle class is very"
"Beijing isnt architectonically as pretty as Shanghai but is home to artists, intellectuals, writers, internet start-ups & the creative class" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini 2013 Global Economic Outlook

Nouriel Roubini :  The tail risk of something disorderly in the eurozone – like a Greek exit or Italy and Spain losing market access that were severe risks in the middle of last year – have basically been reduced because they have announced this new program of bond purchases, the OMT, there is this new ESM, there is another half a trillion euros out there for banks and sovereign, because there is talk about a banking and fiscal union, and because now Germany has used the words about the periphery of the eurozone that are more constructive.

    But if you look at the fundamental problem in the eurozone: lack of economic growth and continued recession, low potential growth because of demographics and lack of reforms, 2) debt sustainability - official and private – are too high, and 3) lack and loss of competitiveness, and a large external deficit that the private sector does not want to finance – those fundamental problems of the eurozone have not been resolved, they may have been pushed by a few quarters, but fundamental problems of growth, competitiveness and sustainability have not been resolved.

Nouriel Roubini : Instability in the Middle East is an issue

Nouriel Roubini : “Instability in the Middle East is an issue: and the instability is not just tension between Israel and Iran – that if there were to become violent they could spike global oil prices to double the current level and tip the global economy into recession. If you look at the Middle East, all from Maghreb, Algeria to Afghanistan and Pakistan, there is geopolitical tension that could have economic consequences.” - in a recent interview with CNN Money

Roubini : ECB must cut rates or risk crisis again

Roubini : "They have to cut the policy rate, they have to stimulate the economy, they have to try to weaken the value of the euro,""The euro should be 10, 20 or even 30% weaker to restore the competitiveness of the [eurozone] periphery," Roubini said. "If they are the only [central bank] holding out, then the damage economically and politically will be severe," he said. "The risk is there will be a clash between austerity fatigue in the periphery of the eurozone and bailout fatigue in the core -- the two could clash in a way that could put at risk again the entire eurozone system."

Nouriel Roubini ‏: The collateral damage for the EZ of waking insured deposits is serious in the future

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " Any deal on Cyprus must exclude deposits below 100K as the collateral damage for the EZ of waking insured deposits is serious in the future"
"Eurozone officials admit being 'in a mess' over Cyprus during conference call http://bit.ly/14e7dAt" - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Eurozone in a mess over Cyprus

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Eurozone officials admit being 'in a mess' over Cyprus during conference call http://bit.ly/14e7dAt
EZ PMIs suggest deepening recession in both core and periphery. Time for the ECB to cut the refi rate! - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Russia Wants a Naval base in Cyprus not just the right to Offshore Gas Reserves

Nouriel Roubini ‏: "UK & US may be queasy about a Russian naval base in Cyprus but Germany may not as limiting the size of EZ/German bailout funds is critical "
"Russia doesn't just want the right to Cyprus offshore gas reserves; it also wants a military naval base there in exchange for a bailout" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini on Cyprus Deal

Nouriel Roubini ‏: A sensible Cyprus deal would have bailed in sov creditors, large depositors above 100k (not small ones) & senior unsecured bank bonded debt - in twitter