Friday, December 6, 2013

Nouriel Roubini Speech at The Lugano Fund Forum Switzerland November 26th 2013



The Lugano Fund Forum (LFF) is the third edition of the most important event focused on Asset Management, Investment Tools (covered warrants, certificates, ETF, structured bonds, unit linked …) and Fundamental Analysis, organized in the Italian part of Switzerland (the Canton of Ticino). The forum will take place at the prestigious Palazzo dei Congressi, on the 25th and the 26th of November 2013, and will host a number of specialized conferences and an exhibition area. LFF represents a unique showcase to:
  • Introduce the rich number of players (hedge funds, SICAV, asset managers …) based in the area to local and international financial institutions, and vice versa
  • Provide updates about recent most innovative services/products for the AM sector
  • Discuss main issues and opportunities in the sector with real experts
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

I am Optimistic about Dubai


“Dubai at the moment has good prospects. There has been a recovery in the real estate sector. The lifestyle here is less restrictive than in other countries in the region, and there is safety and security. In the longer term, Dubai can be an important financial centre and a key economy of the region. Sometimes you make mistakes, but if you manage growth more cautiously and manage diversification properly, I’m optimistic about Dubai,”


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

Roubini : There is a lot Islamic Finance can teach us

“I’m all in favour of less risk, and some elements of Islamic finance involve profit-sharing and risk-spreading, which is good. There are many things in Islamic finance that can lead to more stability. There is a lot Islamic finance can teach us,” he says.

“I do not see Islamic finance competing with conventional finance, rather it is complementary to it. The main focus will be on the Islamic world, but others will also seek to get involved, like London.

“One of the challenges of the Islamic financial systems is the issue of insolvency. Creditors have a claim over the underlying assets, which is a good thing, but bankruptcy regimes in Islamic countries are not very strong,”
- in www.eat-halal.com


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Roubini : Gold Price tumbles to lowest since July

 Gold price tumbles to lowest since July - in twitter



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, December 2, 2013

Housing Bubbles Worldwide : We are witnessing in many countries a slow-motion replay of the last housing-market train wreck



In countries where non-recourse loans allow borrowers to walk away from a mortgage when its value exceeds that of their home, the housing bust may lead to massive defaults and banking crises. In countries (for example, Sweden) where recourse loans allow seizure of household income to enforce payment of mortgage obligations, private consumption may plummet as debt payments (and eventually rising interest rates) crowd out discretionary spending. Either way, the result would be the same: recession and stagnation.
What we are witnessing in many countries looks like a slow-motion replay of the last housing-market train wreck. And, like last time, the bigger the bubbles become, the nastier the collision with reality will be.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

Roubini : New Bubbles like 2008-09 Train Crash in Slow Motion

by Nouriel Roubini , December 02 2013, 07:37

IT IS widely agreed that a series of collapsing housing-market bubbles triggered the global financial crisis of 2008-09, along with the severe recession that followed. Now, five years later, signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles, are reappearing in housing markets in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and, back for an encore, the UK (well, London). In emerging markets, bubbles are appearing in Hong Kong, Singapore, China, and Israel, and in major urban centres in Turkey, India, Indonesia and Brazil.

Signs of home prices entering bubble territory include fast-rising home prices, high and rising price-to-income ratios, and high mortgage debt as a share of household debt. In most advanced economies, bubbles are being inflated by very low short-and long-term interest rates. Given anaemic economic growth, high unemployment and low inflation, the wall of liquidity generated by monetary easing is driving up asset prices, starting with homes.

The situation is more varied in emerging markets. Some with high per-capita income — such as Israel, Hong Kong, and Singapore — have low inflation and want to maintain low policy interest rates to prevent exchange-rate appreciation against major currencies. Others are characterised by high inflation.

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Roubini : Indonesia could Grow faster than China and India


“Countries like India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and Ukraine [are also running deficits], but I would not put Indonesia in this group, even if Indonesia has some macro-financial fragility,” he said Saturday in his remarks delivered during the CEO Summit conference held as part of the APEC leaders meetings.“With the right economic reforms, the growth of Indonesia in the second half of this decade could even be higher than China and India,” Roubini predicted. - in The Jakarta Post



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Housing Bubbles Worldwide : We are witnessing in many countries a slow-motion replay of the last housing-market train wreck

In countries where non-recourse loans allow borrowers to walk away from a mortgage when its value exceeds that of their home, the housing bust may lead to massive defaults and banking crises. In countries (for example, Sweden) where recourse loans allow seizure of household income to enforce payment of mortgage obligations, private consumption may plummet as debt payments (and eventually rising interest rates) crowd out discretionary spending. Either way, the result would be the same: recession and stagnation.

What we are witnessing in many countries looks like a slow-motion replay of the last housing-market train wreck. And, like last time, the bigger the bubbles become, the nastier the collision with reality will be.
- in project-syndicate


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Saturday, November 30, 2013

Bond Yields Are Mispriced


Bond Yields Are Mispriced 

"Tapering of September Tapering. The Fed should not start tapering given mediocre GDP growth and labor market. Bond yields mispriced." - in Twitter


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Back to Housing Bubbles by Nouriel Roubini


NEW YORK – It is widely agreed that a series of collapsing housing-market bubbles triggered the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, along with the severe recession that followed. While the United States is the best-known case, a combination of lax regulation and supervision of banks and low policy interest rates fueled similar bubbles in the United Kingdom, Spain, Ireland, Iceland, and Dubai.

Now, five years later, signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles, are reappearing in housing markets in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and, back for an encore, the UK (well, London). In emerging markets, bubbles are appearing in Hong Kong, Singapore, China, and Israel, and in major urban centers in Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Brazil.

Signs that home prices are entering bubble territory in these economies include fast-rising home prices, high and rising price-to-income ratios, and high levels of mortgage debt as a share of household debt. In most advanced economies, bubbles are being inflated by very low short- and long-term interest rates. Given anemic GDP growth, high unemployment, and low inflation, the wall of liquidity generated by conventional and unconventional monetary easing is driving up asset prices, starting with home prices.

Friday, November 29, 2013

The Housing Bubble(s) Not Bursting Any Time Soon

 ...the global economy’s new housing bubbles may not be about to burst just yet, because the forces feeding them – especially easy money and the need to hedge against inflation – are still fully operative. Moreover, many banking systems have bigger capital buffers than in the past, enabling them to absorb losses from a correction in home prices; and, in most countries, households’ equity in their homes is greater than it was in the US subprime mortgage bubble... - in Project-Syndicate.org


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Outlook of the world economy - Roubini Global Economics - National Oil Companies Congress 2013

 Nouriel Roubini, Founder and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics gives his keynote address on 'What is the outlook of the world economy and what are the implications for oil markets?' at World National Oil Companies Congress 2013. His presentation is followed by an interview with Alexander Poegl, Senior Analyst and Consultant for JBC Energy

The annual World National Oil Companies Congress is where leaders of the world's NOCs meet each other and their partners to debate and decide the future of the oil and gas business.







Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Roubini : U.S. Economy Growth Is Low, Inflation Is Low, Unemployment Is High



The economic activity is recovering very anemically. Growth is low, inflation is low, unemployment is high. That is the reason why we have zero policy rates, we have QE, credit easing.

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: Dubai has Superb Infrastructure & Organization


Nouriel Roubini ‏: I just returned from Dubai that won the competition for Expo 2020. Well deserved choice as Dubai has superb infrastructure & organization- in twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Euro Marriage in Peril By NOURIEL ROUBINI

On the morning of July 26, 2012, I was meeting with the central bank governor of a country at the core, or stable center, of the euro zone. He was telling me that the European Central Bank could do little to rescue peripheral countries like Italy and Spain, whose interest rates were going through the roof.

 On that day, to the surprise of my interlocutor and global investors, the E.C.B. president, Mario Draghi, made his famous declaration that the bank was prepared to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro. That led to the creation of outright monetary transactions, known as O.M.T., and saved the euro zone.

Today the risks for the euro zone are much lower. Still, 2013 has been a volatile year. The crisis in Cyprus showed that the euro zone remains deeply divided over how to resolve the crisis in the periphery; inconclusive German elections created new uncertainties in the euro zone’s core; and the Italian government teetered on the verge of collapse more than once.

Nouriel Roubini Speech @ Lugano Fund Forum Switzerland 25 Nov 2013

 Nouriel Roubini Speech @ Lugano Fund Forum Switzerland 25 Nov 2013



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Nouriel Roubini: Outlook for Indonesian Economy in 2014 - November 11, 2013

New York University economist Nouriel Roubini gave a positive opinion on the Indonesian economy in 2014 , Roubini explained that there are 10 economic fundamentals that make give hope for Indonesia which will experience a better economy in 2014



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, November 25, 2013

Roubini : QE tapering to have positive impact on S. Korea


SEOUL, Nov. 4 (Xinhua) -- Future tapering of the U.S. quantitative easing (QE) would influence the South Korean economy positively, a New York University economics professor said Monday.
"QE tapering will be positive to Korea," Nouriel Roubini said in Seoul at a meeting with South Korean Finance Minister Hyun Oh- seok, noting that the QE tapering would mean a recovery of the U.S. economy, on which South Korea heavily depends for trade, according to the Finance Ministry.
Interest rate hikes in the U.S. would lead to strong U.S. dollar, having a positive impact on exports, which account for around half of the South Korean economy, said Roubini who served as a senior economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton administration. He earned a nickname of "Dr. Doom" due to his consistently bearish economic views.
Roubini said that South Korea held positive position in terms of fiscal balance and sovereign debts, assessing that the April supplementary budget was appropriate and contributed to the country's recovery.
 

 more @xinhuanet
 
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Sunday, November 24, 2013

U.S. Stock Market not in a Bubble Yet



In a Bloomberg interview, Roubini said central bank liquidity is not going to the economic recovery but into financial transactions “We are maybe not in bubble territory for the U.S. stock market, but if you look at housing around the world — Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, France, Germany, Israel, Brazil, Hong Kong, Singapore, China — we have frothiness if not outright bubbles in housing markets in many parts of the world,” he said. Also, the tech sector appears vulnerable with start-ups being overvalued based on forward revenue they haven’t even taken in yet. In addition, central bankers face a tough choice between killing off the recovery, or fueling growth at the risk of inflating the next financial crisis.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

Roubini : U.S. Economy Growth Is Low, Inflation Is Low, Unemployment Is High



The economic activity is recovering very anemically. Growth is low, inflation is low, unemployment is high. That is the reason why we have zero policy rates, we have QE, credit easing.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics 

Nouriel Roubini Inflation
Nouriel Roubini Inflation

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Economic Outlook Indonesia 2014 : 10 Steps to Accelerate Economic Growth By Nouriel Roubini

Roubini speech starts @ 01:03


10 Steps to Accelerating Economic Growth By Nouriel Roubini video, 10 Steps to Economic Growth Acceleration By Nouriel Roubini hd (member of Vibiz Media Network) Program: Vibiz Dialogue and Opinion by Vibiznews In this program, Nouriel Roubini serve the cause of slowing economic growth ...
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Roubini ‏: In Bahrain Water more costly than Gasoline


Nouriel Roubini ‏: In Bahrain water more costly than gasoline. Gasoline subsidized. Water costly as imported or produced with energy intensive desalinization- in twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Roubini : Indonesia could Grow faster than China and India



“Countries like India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and Ukraine [are also running deficits], but I would not put Indonesia in this group, even if Indonesia has some macro-financial fragility,” he said Saturday in his remarks delivered during the CEO Summit conference held as part of the APEC leaders meetings.“With the right economic reforms, the growth of Indonesia in the second half of this decade could even be higher than China and India,” Roubini predicted. - in The Jakarta Post
NOURIEL ROUBINI
NOURIEL ROUBINI


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Roubini : Probably The Tapering will start in January

 You mentioned that you wouldn’t rule out the tapering of US Federal Reserve stimulus taking place in December. But when do you think it will actually happen and what actually backs your conviction?

Nouriel Roubini : Well, my baseline is that probably the tapering will start in January. That is more probable than December, but the latest economic data on the United States suggests that job creation remained robust in October in spite of the government shutdown. Other economic indicators in the US suggest that growth is picking up.

I would not rule out that the Fed might decide to start the tapering in December. It’s not my baseline because January is more likely. But even if they were to start in December, they would try to sweeten this bitter pill, firstly, by changing their forward guidance by signaling that they’re going to keep a zero policy rate for longer than otherwise. Secondly, they’re also going to make sure that people know that tapering and continuation of tapering are state-contingent or data-dependent.

The market at this point is already banking on the tapering happening. So it’s not going to be much of a surprise as it was in May or June. Long-term interest rates have already gone from 1.6 percent to 2.7 percent, so upside surprises in the long-term interest rates are going be relatively modest, whether tapering starts in December or in January. - in The Jakarta Post


 
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, November 18, 2013

Outlook for Indonesia : Prospects are still pretty strong


Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini
Question: You’re known as Dr. Doom, the man who usually has a bearish forecast for the global economy. And yet, you have always had a positive outlook on Indonesia. What’s behind your faith in the Indonesian economy?

Nouriel Roubini : First of all, I don’t think I’m Dr. Doom. I’m Dr. Realist. I try to correctly understand what’s going on in the global economy. A few years ago, there was a global financial crisis, but now there is recovery. The emerging markets for the last few years have done overall much better than advanced economies.

And if I look at Indonesia, I would say that the medium-term prospects are still pretty strong in terms of actual and potential growth, being at least 6 percent if not higher. The existence of external deficit, slightly higher than target inflation, has led to some concerns and some financial pressures on the currency, the bond market and the equity market.

If a gov shutdown cannot lift gold, what else will?

 If a gov shutdown cannot lift gold, what else will? "Gold Falls Below $1,300 to Seven-Week Low on Shutdown"


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Financial Armageddon

 If you worry about Financial Armageddon, it is indeed metaphorically the time to stock your bunker with guns, ammunition, canned food and gold bars.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

slashing labor costs has sharply reduced the share of labor income in GDP


The result is that free markets don’t generate enough final demand. In the US, for example, slashing labor costs has sharply reduced the share of labor income in GDP.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Roubini Reasons for Caution


 Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, expects recovery in the west to be 'at best weak'. He talks to Sarah Gordon, Europe business editor, a... İcerik giriniz



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Friday, November 15, 2013

Roubini : 10 basic and key questions that the Senators failed to ask Janet Yellen at her confirmation hearing

 10 basic and key questions that the Senators failed to ask Janet Yellen at her confirmation hearings. Who is prepping these folks?


 Questions Senators were too naive to ask Yellen:
 1. You wrote about optimal control (OC) ie allow inflation above target. Do you support OC?
 2. You wrote a few times that inflation may have to go above target for a while to reduce labor slack. Do you support this optimal control?
 3. Do you agree with Governor Stein that macro-pru will not be sufficient to control bubbles? Would you raise rates sooner to prick bubbles?
 4. While you say no bubble today what is the risk that slow QE exit & policy rate normalization (4 yrs) will cause bubbles down the line?
5 . If the current approach to too-big-to-fail will not work would you down the line support breaking up big banks to deal with TBTF?
 6. What will be Fed losses of paying interest on excess reserves of $3 trillion+ when you will normalize policy rates to 4%? 120bn a year?
 7. Fed criteria for taper is a cumulative improvement in labor mkt outlook. Aren't we there now given fall in Un Rate & 180K jobs per month?

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Roubini : The ECB will eventually move to a Negative Deposit Rate



Nouriel Roubini ‏: In October we at RGE also made an out of consensus call that the ECB will eventually move to a negative deposit rate and even to QE
And now senior ECB officials are openly talking about a negative deposit rate and about QE as options to fight low inflation/ strong euro - in Twitter
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Roubini Keynote speaker @ Mandiri Investment Forum in Indonesia


Dr. Nouriel Roubini was a keynote speaker at the Mandiri Investment Forum in Jakarta on the 10th November . Global economic outlook and Indonesia

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Roubini : Policymakers will Face an ugly trade-off


 Nouriel Roubini : “Policymakers will eventually face an ugly trade-off: kill the recovery to avoid risky bubbles, or go for growth at the risk of fueling the next financial crisis,”

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Rich Countries may be entering twilight zone of Ultralow Inflation


Nouriel Roubini : Or deflation @EconBizFin: The growing fear is that rich countries may be entering twilight zone of ultralow inflation - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: how much stronger could the pound sterling become?


Nouriel Roubini ‏: I am in London. With Fed, BoJ, SNB and now ECB in easing mode while the BoE is on hold how much stronger could the pound sterling become?- in twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, November 11, 2013

Roubini: These are the Bubbles to watch

 Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- NYU Stern Business School Professor Nouriel Roubini discusses he risk of asset bubbles on Bloomberg Television's "Money Moves." (Source: Bloomberg)




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Roubini was Right again !!


Nouriel Roubini : At RGE we rightly predicted that the BOJ would surprise markets in April;that the Fed would not taper in Sept;that ECB would cut rates today- in twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Friday, November 8, 2013

Roubini vs. El-Erian: How Bad Off Is the Economy?

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg Television's "Lunch Money" Host Matt Miller reports on the global economy. (Source: Bloomberg)



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Fiscal Drag Is Damaging U.S. Growth

Roubini: Fiscal Drag Is Damaging U.S. Growth

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- On today's "Chart Attack," NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini and Bloomberg's Matt Miller look at how the government is weighing on economic growth. They speak on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Roubini: Watch These Bubbles About to Pop

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- NYU Stern Business School Professor Nouriel Roubini discusses he risk of asset bubbles on Bloomberg Television's "Money Moves." (Source: Bloomberg)




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini's Advice for Investing in China

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) –- In today's "Global Outlook," NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini takes a look at China's economy and fiscal reforms on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini says central bankers have a tough choice: Kill recovery or risk bubbles

Regulations meant to curb risks in the global financial system –known to economists as “macroprudential regulations” — had better work, or central bankers will be between a rock and a hard place.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis six years ago, unconventional tools like quantitative easing and zero-interest rate policies may have sparked an economic recovery but not one of turbocharged growth or low unemployment. That puts policy makers in a difficult position, NYU economist Nouriel Roubini wrote in an opinion piece at Live Mint on Wednesday. He added:
“[P]olicymakers will eventually face an ugly trade-off: kill the recovery to avoid risky bubbles, or go for growth at the risk of fueling the next financial crisis.”

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Roubini on The Financial Armageddon


Nouriel Roubini : If you worry about Financial Armageddon, it is indeed metaphorically the time to stock your bunker with guns, ammunition, canned food and gold bars.

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

The QE Money Suplly did not help Finance private consumption or Investment


NEW YORK – As below-trend GDP growth and high unemployment continue to afflict most advanced economies, their central banks have resorted to increasingly unconventional monetary policy. An alphabet soup of measures has been served up: ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy); QE (quantitative easing, or purchases of government bonds to reduce long-term rates when short-term policy rates are zero); CE (credit easing, or purchases of private assets aimed at lowering the private sector’s cost of capital); and FG (forward guidance, or the commitment to maintain QE or ZIRP until, say, the unemployment rate reaches a certain target). Some have gone as far as proposing NIPR (negative-interest-rate policy).

And yet, through it all, growth rates have remained stubbornly low and unemployment rates unacceptably high, partly because the increase in money supply following QE has not led to credit creation to finance private consumption or investment. Instead, banks have hoarded the increase in the monetary base in the form of idle excess reserves. There is a credit crunch, as banks with insufficient capital do not want to lend to risky borrowers, while slow growth and high levels of household debt have also depressed credit demand.
 Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/on-the-ugly-policy-tradeoff-facing-advanced-country-central-bankers-by-nouriel-roubini#tQlVKVMYyF66b1uP.99
Nouriel Roubini


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, November 4, 2013

Roubini : Brazil Was Too Hyped


2 years ago at the Milken Conference, Eike Batista criticized me in our panel for saying that Brazil was too hyped. Today he is nearly bankrupt. - in a recent tweet

Related trading instruments: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)
Nouriel Roubini


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Workers’ Rights needed to be protected , To Avoid Revolution


Even before the Great Depression, Europe’s enlightened “bourgeois” classes recognized that, to avoid revolution, workers’ rights needed to be protected, wage and labor conditions improved, and a welfare state created to redistribute wealth and finance public goods – education, health care, and a social safety net. The push towards a modern welfare state accelerated after the Great Depression, when the state took on the responsibility for macroeconomic stabilization – a role that required the maintenance of a large middle class by widening the provision of public goods through progressive taxation of incomes and wealth and fostering economic opportunity for all. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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