Taleb: Government Deficits Could Be the Next Black Swan

Nassim Taleb : "The problem is that citizens are being led to invest in securities they don't understand by people who themselves don't quite understand the risks involved. The stock market is probably the best thing in the world, but the true risks of the stock market are vastly greater than the representations. And this leads to extremely strange situations in which, say, someone has a bakery, is extremely paranoid about suppliers, very careful about risks, and protects his business with appropriate insurance. Then, at some point, he puts his $122,000 in savings in a fund that he knows nothing about, based on risk measures he knows nothing about, in companies very few people know much about.

People use "risk measures," but you're really not measuring anything like you measure temperature or distance. You are making a speculative assessment of a future event. That's not measuring, that's estimating. And as we saw with BP (BP), with the banking system, and with Toyota (TM), companies themselves are hiding risks from the security analysts. They're cutting corners. Companies have a tendency to hide risks.

So someone extremely careful and prudent in the management of his own affairs will be completely careless with the half of his savings invested in the stock market. I'm saying: Don't use the stock market as a repository of value. It has vastly more risks than you think."
via businesweek.com




Nassim Taleb discusses principles that will help achieve a more robust financial system free of negative black swans. Giving an addict more drugs will not cure the addict, just as increasing the debt of an over-leveraged system will only prolong an even more severe economic meltdown. Unfortunately, the Administration is not listening to him.

Nouriel Roubini Economic Outlook for the second half of the year

Roubini: Even If We Don't Double Dip Immediately, We're Still At Risk Of One

Nouriel Roubini : I am expecting the economic growth in the second half of the year to be 1.5 per cent conditional that it has been correct actually everything from job to deficit the housing market , bank losses are actually going to look worse that they are right now...etc...
What to expect for the second half of the year, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman.

Nouriel Roubini Double-dip days ahead

The global economy, artificially boosted since the recession of 2008-2009 by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus and financial bailouts, is headed towards a sharp slowdown this year as the effect of these measures wanes. Worse yet, the fundamental excesses that fueled the crisis – too much debt and leverage in the private sector (households, banks and other financial institutions, and even much of the corporate sector) – have not been addressed.
Nouriel Roubini via PBS.org


Nouriel Roubini (born on March 29, 1959) is the Chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics an economic consultancy firm , professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University , and co-author of the book Crisis Economics. After receiving BA in political economics at Bocconi University and doctorate in international economics at Harvard University, he began academic research and policy making by teaching at Yale while also spending time at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and Bank of Israel. Much of his early studies focused on emerging markets. During the administration of President Bill Clinton, he was a senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers, later moving to the United States Treasury Department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner, who is now Treasury Secretary.

Nassim Taleb : The government debt a pure Ponzi scheme

Black Swan author Nassim Taleb : The massive one is government deficits. As an analogy: You often have planes landing two hours late. In some cases, when you have volcanos, you can land two or three weeks late. How often have you landed two hours early? Never. It's the same with deficits. The errors tend to go one way rather than the other.The problem is getting runaway. It's becoming a pure Ponzi scheme. It's very nonlinear: You need more and more debt just to stay where you are. And what broke [convicted financier Bernard] Madoff is going to break governments. They need to find new suckers all the time. And unfortunately the world has run out of suckers.
via The Los Angeles Times

Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini Plays Dr. Hashimi In Wall Street 2 Movie

Nouriel Roubini is back to Hollywood his time to play a role in the upcoming Wall Street 2 movie the character he will be playing is called "Dr. Hashimi." but it is based off his real life as "Dr. Doom," the nickname that the financial media gave him because he was one of the few who predicted the recent financial crisis.This is not the first time that Nouriel Roubini plays a role in Hollywood movies ...

Roubini : European markets outlook worse than stress test result

Nouriel Roubini of RGE Roubini Global Economics said that the US GDP is likely to see a V-shaped recovery, reports CNBC-TV18. However he warned that the second half of the year is going to be worse."The assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk were not realistic enough in my view especially on sovereign risk" said. Nouriel Roubini,most of the sovereign risk was held in maturity books and the tests did not allow for a default Roubini explains and there is a question on how you measure also things that have not been market down like toxic assets ...the strength of the Euro is more likely the weakness of the dollar , until a month ago the dollar looked like less ugly than the Euro due to the problems in the Eurozone stress test sovereign default risk risk of a double dip risk of the break-up of the monetary union , last month the month the numbers have come out worse for the United States in terms of macroeconomic data ....“Certainly the second half of the year has to be worse. Less than 2% in second quarter is not a recession, but everything is worse. It feels like a recession.”
“More of their government debt is held to maturity rather than trading book and therefore they need not consider their results,”“Like in the US case, if you make assumptions that the three key factors , growth unemployment and home price deflation are too rosy, then u can get at the macro level, losses that are smaller than otherwise,”

Roubini : Euro Stress Tests not stressful enough

Roubini : The strength of the Euro is more like the weakness of the Dollar

"The assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk were not realistic enough in my view especially on sovereign risk" said. Nouriel Roubini,most of the sovereign risk was held in maturity books and the tests did not allow for a default Roubini explains and there is a question on how you measure also things that have not been market down like toxic assets ...the strength of the Euro is more likely the weakness of the dollar , until a month ago the dollar looked like less ugly than the Euro due to the problems in the Eurozone stress test sovereign default risk risk of a double dip risk of the break-up of the monetary union , last month the month the numbers have come out worse for the United States in terms of macroeconomic data ....

Nassim Taleb Investments Strategy

interview with Nassim Taleb, bestselling author of "The Black Swan" and "Fooled By Randomness"

Roubini : There is a global deflationary risk

”There is a global deflationary risk,” says Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor. “That’s what central bankers are worried about.”.”The Fed is trying to preemptively avoid a deflation trap [which] is very dangerous,” Roubini says. “Whether they’ll be successful or not, I don’t know.”The problem, he says, is there’s going to be a “severe recession”

Nouriel Roubini on Bankers bailouts

Nouriel Roubini "The Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer. And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a systemic meltdown. "

Nassim Taleb at the Invest Leadership Summit in South Africa 11th August 2010

Nassim Taleb, who will be visiting South Africa for the Discovery Invest Leadership Summit on August 11th
Invest Leadership Summit will be held at the Sandton Convention Centre on the 11th August 2010

NOURIEL ROUBINI ON BLOOMBERG RADIO JULY 14, 2010

NOURIEL ROUBINI: One of the important point I make is that the overspending countries now have to retrench, spend less, consume less, import less. And therefore, the over saving country like China, Germany, Japan, has to do their share of the global economy by saving less and spending more. Otherwise, in a world that is flush with a glass of capacity that will cover a global accurate demand is going to be weaker than otherwise.

For China, that means two things. It means they should let the RMB appreciate at a much faster rate. What they've announced a few weeks ago is totally symbolic. They've done very little. The rate of crawl up over there is going to be too little to make any difference. And secondly, they should accelerate the kind of structural reform that reduce the savings rate and increased the consumption rate.

Again, those things are going to take years to implement, but they're not even doing the basic background to achieve that type of a consumer society. So unfortunately, my answer is China is not doing its share of the global rebalancing.

Roubini Global Economics: Dont Jump into Gold bandwagon

"The concerns propelling the price of gold specifically are very real and should not be ignored. But is now the time for investors to jump the gold bandwagon? We wouldn’t encourage it," Roubini Global Economics said
via CNBC.com

Roubini : Private sector deleveraging has barely begun

The global economy is headed toward a sharp slowdown this year as the effect of these measures wanes, says economist Nouriel Roubini.
“Private sector deleveraging has barely begun,”
“Moreover, there is now massive re-leveraging of the public sector in advanced economies, with huge budget deficits and public-debt accumulation driven by automatic stabilizers, countercyclical Keynesian fiscal stimulus, and the immense costs of socializing the financial system's losses.”
Roubini sees the utlook for the US mediocre but the Eurozone is even worse
in todayonline.com

Roubini : the global slowdown will worsen in the second half of this year as stimulus measures wane and austerity programs take hold

Roubini says Slowdown to Worsen in Second Half, U.S. Better Than Euro Zone
in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini : speaker at the Summer Institute lecture series at the Jewish Center of the Hamptons.

Nouriel gave his standard talk: The U.S. is entering either a "U" (at best) or a "W" (at worst), while over there, he estimates 0% growth in the eurozone over the next 12 months.

Reduced fiscal and monetary stimuli, the cessation of temporary benefits (inventory build, Cash for Clunkers, homebuyer's tax credit, etc.) and diminished confidence (consumer and corporate) spell subpar growth (1.5% estimated second-half domestic growth). Deflationary pressures remain the mainstay in the aftermath of the last economic and credit cycle and in the face of tax policy (higher January 2011) and the obliteration of the shadow-banking system and securitization markets.
in thestreet.com
read full story >>>

Rubini : Even China is showing signs of a slowdown

Even China is showing signs of a slowdown, owing to the government's attempts to control economic overheating. The slowdown in advanced economies, together with a weaker euro, will further dent Chinese growth, bringing its 11-per-cent-plus growth rate towards 7 per cent by the end of this year.
This is bad news for export growth in the rest of Asia and among commodity-rich countries, which increasingly rely on Chinese imports. An important victim will be Japan, where anaemic real income growth is depressing domestic demand and exports to China sustain what little growth there is. Japan also suffers from low potential growth, owing to a lack of structural reforms and weak and ineffective governments (four prime ministers in four years), a large stock of public debt, unfavourable demographic trends and a strong yen that gets stronger during bouts of global risk aversion.
in Today in Singapore. todayonline.com

Roubini keynote speaker at the World Capital Markets Symposium 2010 Kuala Lumpur

Dr. Nouriel Roubini will be a keynote speaker at The second edition of The World Capital Markets Symposium (WCMS), to be hosted by the Securities Commission Malaysia on 27-28 September 2010 in Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Other confirmed keynote speakers at the Symposium include top Indian economic policymaker Dr Montek Singh Ahluwalia
in abnnewswire.net

Roubini : Obama Should Address Nation as Adults

“We have to recognize that Americans are adults. Then we have to speak to them straightforward about the risks and challenges that we have, rather than kicking the can down the road.”

Source Bloomberg Radio

Niall Ferguson Greece in Death Spiral Europe Still in Deep, Deep Trouble

Niall Ferguson : The whole (EU) thing will fall apart

Unlike the US dollar , the Euro is a a single currency based on a monetary union without a fiscal union , says Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson , when the Germans were asked early this year to bailout the Greeks they said No why should we , so there is no mechanism to transfer the wealth from the wealthier states in the EU to the poorest ones ....Harvard professor Niall Ferguson who just returned from Athens Greece says that Europe has still not dealt sufficiently with what started the euro crisis -- Greece. Even after a trillion-dollar bailout from the ECB, IMF and European countries its problem is completely still unresolved."Greek economy is contracting at a really high rate, there's no sign of recovery. If anything, it’s a death spiral." Niall Ferguson says

Nouriel Roubini on South Korea rate hikes

"Given revival of capital inflows in June, rising inflationary pressures and risks from negative real interest rates, South Korea will hike rates by another 50 basis points in the third quarter,"
"This will be followed by a 25 basis point hike in the fourth quarter, unless domestic and global growth slow more than expected or there's a repeat of a May-like sell-off. Rates will go up by at least 75 basis points in 2011,"
in The Korea Times 07-11-2010

Nouriel Roubini Saw it coming before anybody else

NOURIEL ROUBINI: Professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business; chairman of RGE Monitor, an economic consultancy firm; former senior economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisers under Clinton
At the height of the housing boom, no one was predicting an economic collapse with more fervor than Nouriel "Doctor Doom" Roubini. As the crisis kept deepening, he kept predicting it would get worse, and kept being proved right.

Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, speaks about risk and robustness.

Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, speaks about risk and robustness.

Nouriel Roubini Holiday Tour in crisis-hit countries

FT : Where are you going on holiday this year?

Roubini : Recently I have lived like the George Clooney character in Up in the Air (a film I watched on a plane). If I get a vacation this summer it would possibly be a tour of crisis-hit countries – if I am still allowed in them: Spain, Ireland, Iceland, Latvia, Greece and, maybe, the oil spill-ridden US Gulf Coast.

Source The Financial Times

Nouriel Roubini vs Ian Bremmer - is it Double dip recession or not

Roubini : Banks Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Bail Out

"A year ago we had all these policy bullets," Roubini said. "We could push down rates to zero, we had (quantitative easing), we could do a budget deficit of 10 percent of GDP (or) backstop the financial system."
The financial reform bill is headed to the Senate later this month, with Chris Whalen, Institutional Risk Analytics; Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group and Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics and NYU Stern School of Business.

Arnab Das : US to Make Faster Recovery than Europe?

Jul. 7 2010 | The US economy is likely to make a faster recovery than the European economy, Arnab Das from Roubini Global Economics told CNBC Wednesday.

Roubini : No Double dip Recession

On Sunday, in Aix en Provence, at an annual conference of Le Cercle des économistes, a French group, Prof. Roubini said that a second contraction was not likely, either in the United States or in the world economy as a whole.

This sounded reassuring, in the wake of a column by the Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman in the New York Times, in which he likened the present to the 1930s and said, “The odds of a prolonged slump are rising by the day.” That column has stimulated a vast amount of worried commentary in the past few weeks.
Source The Globe and Mail

The Russian Spies were targeting Nouriel Roubini ???

The 10 alleged Russian spies arrested in the US and in particular the redhead Anna Chapman were probably targeting The hard partying Nouriel Roubini , Chapman and Roubini were Facebook friends , But, Roubini says he never had a “one to one conversation or meeting with her.” Roubini told ABCNEWS "I may have met her socially on one or two occasions in a large party (not at my place) and never had a one to one conversation or meeting with her," Roubini who is professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School is also the former senior economist for international affairs with the White House Council of Economic Advisors..Anna Chapman's facebook profile is still up

to this very moment www.facebook.com/chapmananya

Niall Ferguson vs Paul Krugman

Austerity vs Stimulus

Niall Ferguson,Professor at Harvard University and Author of Ascent Of Money & High Financier says Paul Krugman's idea that more spending will help the US economy is 'nuts'.Paul Krugman Economic Nobel prize said early this week "we are now I fear in the early stages of a third depression"

Nouriel Roubini Crisis Economics on The Kudlow Report Jun. 28 2010

Discussing whether the recession is headed for a double-dip, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman.

Niall Ferguson vs Nouriel Roubini

Niall Ferguson Nervous About European Banks

"I've been nervous about European banks for quite a long time," Niall Ferguson, Harvard University professor, told CNBC Tuesday. The Greek crisis revealed the limits of European governments' ability to bail out banks if need be, Ferguson added.

Nassim Taleb vs Nouriel Roubini

The Black swans vs dr. Doom

Nouriel Roubini : Renminbi vs US dollar

The decision of China to move away from its currency peg could cause the renminbi to weaken against the dollar instead of strengthening as Washington hopes,economist Nouriel Roubini, told Reuters last week .
"This is the first significant signal in years of a change in Chinese currency policy," Roubini said."Since they have not changed the previous range for the band -- plus or minus 0.5 percent -- most likely on Monday China will allow the Yuan vs US dollar to move," Roubini added

Nouriel Roubini on World Debt

Economist Nouriel Roubini on how to address growing government deficits around the world.

Nassim Taleb The Black Swan- Tie Wearing Economists Magic Risk Formulas-The Crash Has Only Begun

THE CRISIS HAS NOT EVEN STARTED YET. Apocalypse now. Huge risk taken by economists based upon bullshit, made-up economic theory. The banking system is building risks on things we do not understand. PHD's cannot predict the future. Taleb "sounds" pissed off.

Nassim Taleb on the Keynesian stimulus

I just realized that what is called "Keynesian stimulus" works differently when the government is starting off a situation of deficit. The math would produce different results, which makes me wonder why economists cannot spot it (I inject more perturbations and see massive fragility). In one case, to make an analogy to an individual, you can invest money you have on the side(assuming you've had suspluses [sic] from the past). In the other, you fragilize yourself by borrowing, and transfer the liabilities cross-generations. Patris delictum nocere nunquam debet filio. [A father should not leave liabilities to his son.]

But you can't expect economists to perturbate their models, or inject rigor in their arguments. They are the very same idiots after all who got us here.

Nassim Taleb : The Crisis may have just Started

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Angry

Nassim Nicholas Taleb angry with economists. The interviewer was just a journalist clueless about his ideas but he got them across anyway by ignoring her questions.

Nouriel Roubini on Europe trillion-dollar rescue package

"I'm worried that this particular trillion-dollar rescue package in Europe is not going to work because even if there is money on the table, first of all, it's conditional on this country making lots of sacrifices. Then you have to ask yourself, "Can you reduce the budget deficit by 10% of the GDP by cutting spending or raising revenue in places like Greece or other European countries?"
Politically, it's going to be very hard. Two, if you raise taxes and cut spending, you're going to have more recession in the short run. Can a country accept year after year of a recession in order to achieve stabilization of the deficit? That's highly unlikely. Three, these countries were facing an issue of competitiveness because they were already losing market share to China/Asia a decade ago, as their exports were labor-intensive. And then they had the decade where wages were growing more than productivity.

in The Motley Fool read full interview >>>

Nassim Taleb : Explains How More Debt Will Not Help

Nassim's Principles :
Do not give an addict more drugs if he has with drawl pain
Nassim Taleb discusses principles that will help achieve a more robust financial system free of negative black swans. Giving an addict more drugs will not cure the addict, just as increasing the debt of an over-leveraged system will only prolong an even more severe economic meltdown. Unfortunately, the Administration is not listening to him.

Nassim Taleb Tweets

tweet from: nntaleb (Nassim N Taleb)

"Don't talk abt " progress" in terms of longevity, safety, or comfort before looking at zoo animals compared to those in the wildrnss."

Sent via TweetDeck (www.tweetdeck.com)
Ramiro
This entry was written by ramirodigital, posted on June 25, 2010 at 4:23 pm,

Nassim Nicholas Taleb at IMD conference June 20-25 2010

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Q&A. Excerpt of OWP 2010 Evening Session

Q&A, Excerpt of OWP 2010 Evening Session with Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Author of the international bestseller The Black Swan. We live in a complex system that delivers extreme deviations. Current risk management and economic analyses methods fail us in such a system because of low predictability. What should we do in such an environment? In this evening session, Taleb will present simple rules (lower leverage, less reliance on deficit spending, less mathematical risk management) for a black swan robust economic system.
ABOUT IMD
Every year, thousands of business leaders from around the world come to IMD business school to learn and network. Expert Faculty offer cutting-edge knowledge based on relevant, innovative and rigorous research. IMD's unique "Real World. Real Learning" approach allows executives to immediately apply new insights to their business challenges. Learn more about one of the world's top ranked business schools.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb at IMD conference June 20-25 2010

Roubini: Panic May Force Market Shutdown

Nouriel Roubini at conference of hedge-fund managers in London

this video dates back to late 2008 , but it is always a pleasure listening to the wise analysis of Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini....
Hundreds of hedge funds will fail and policy makers may need to shut financial markets for a week or more as the crisis forces investors to dump assets
``We've reached a situation of sheer panic,'' ``There will be massive dumping of assets'' and ``hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust,''
``Systemic risk has become bigger and bigger,'' ``We're seeing the beginning of a run on a big chunk of the hedge funds,'' and ``don't be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days,''

Roubini on Britain deficit problem

Nouriel Roubini: tackling the UK deficit

Author and economist Nouriel Roubini One of the world's leading economists outlines the downside risks to the UK economy and sterling as the Government attempts to tackle the deficit. the new British Government has a "slight honeymoon" on tackling the country's massive budget deficit.
"A lot of it has to be done early because the country wants to differentiate itself from Greece, from Spain, from Portugal.

"The signal to the markets should be: yes, we have a deficit, we have a large stock of public debt but now there's a new Government committed to reducing this deficit.

"If that credibly occurs then interest rates are not going to go higher, inflation is not going to go higher."

Roubini: Euro Zone Could Collapse Due to Greece, Spain

“Down the line, not this year or two years from now, we could have a breakup of the monetary union,”
“The euro zone could drift essentially to a bifurcation, with a strong center and a weaker periphery,” Roubini told Bloomberg.

Dr Doom vs Dr Realist

Roubini insists he's no doomsday pundit

"I would rather be called a 'Dr Realist', who is neither pessimistic nor optimistic, but someone who wants to be right and tries to figure out the upside of the risk"

in China Daily

Roubini : The asymmetry implies that global economic recovery is weaker than expected

Roubini on China US and The G20

"China and other countries are right in telling countries like the US that they need to cut budget deficits,"
"Last year most of the governments reacted aggressively with monetary stimulus and stopped the global economy from a free fall. But the G20 nations clearly have priorities that are different from one another,"
"The asymmetry implies that global economic recovery is weaker than expected,"
"I am not sure how they (G20 leaders) can achieve cooperation, because the state of cooperation is still unclear,"
"I am not blaming the US, or China, but everyone should do their part," said Nouriel Roubini.
in China Daily

Russia Fears BP Fallout from Spill - Russia provides 25% of BP Oil

Rachel Ziemba, a senior analyst at RGE Roubini Global Economics LLC says that it is possible that BP is about to sell some of its Russian assets as a consequence of the Oil spill costs in the Gulf of Mexico : BP Will Be Wary of Selling Assets "this is not have been an easy relationship for BP , I do not think it is going to change any time soon...I assume that BP will be selling more assets ...in general in the Russian oil sector the government is very involved says Ziemba the major Russian companies might be interested in some of these assets ....
June 23 (source : Bloomberg)
Russia seeks assurance over BP - Russia provides 25% of BP Oil , TNK-BP is Russia third oil Producer it provides 25% of BP's output and Reserves , pumps more than 10Bln Barrels a day TNK-BP provides 14% of BP profits...Russia may tighten deep water Rules

Roubini : it is not all a bubble

Nouriel Roubini : "There is a global economic recovery, I'm not saying its all a bubble," Roubini said. "But when you can borrow everywhere in the world at a zero rate, and you can take leverage, the risk of creating the next asset bubble...that significant risk is rising."

in Finance yahoo Tech Ticker

U.S is in worst shape than Greece

when governments become effectively insolvent they default on the debt

U.S is in worst shape than Greece! Nouriel Roubini Discusses U.S.. Government Deficits
 Roubini : if you are a private sector company you live and work in a market and unless you become more efficient you do not survive and disappear  , while in the case of governments that never happens , when governments become effectively insolvent they default on the debt , and that's what's may be happening soon in Greece and in the rest of the Eurozone  , eventually that may also happen in other advanced economies ...so there is not really a market or competition for forcing the governments to make tough choices ...

Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb - Book Review

Source Youtube :This is a book review on the bestsellers, "Black Swan" and "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb, sponsored by PapaMedia.com.

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we dont know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible.For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we dont know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark bookitself a black swan.

In this extraordinary book, Nassim Taleb evaluates the human mind and ironically finds it to be... a lousy evaluator! In the authors words, this is a book about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck...and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness. In other words, human beings have a desire to understand their world, and this desire flows into the unknown and finds ways to make sense of it, illogical though they may be. We generally see the world as more explainable than it really is, and find reasons where there are none—or none that we truly understand. Using concepts such as survivorship bias and counter-intuitive distributions, Taleb illustrates some of the many ways these mistakes happen. Talebs style can be a bit brusque at times. He loves his society, and is impatient for people to see it more clearly but to do so, in his opinion, they must change their ideas about how it works. He makes up for his impatience with charming, personal stories and humorous tidbits about logic (and the lack of it) in the world around him. At 196 pages, Fooled by Randomness is only the beginning of a conversation about a very complex topic. It makes a fascinating start. This book will challenge how you think about luck, logic, and decisions.