Nouriel Roubini the only light at the end of the tunnel so far is the one of the incoming train wreck

Nouriel Roubini :.``..It's not just about housing. This is a severe economic and financial crisis. And the only light at the end of the tunnel so far is the one of the incoming train wreck, unfortunately...``

Nouriel Roubini : US may face a Japanese style stagnation

LONDON: The US economy is a "fiscal train wreck" waiting to happen that risks ushering in a period of stagnation featuring by minimal growth, high unemployment and deflationary pressure, US economist Nouriel Roubini wrote on Friday.

In a commentary for the Financial Times, Roubini -- one of the first economists to predict the housing crash in the United States and known as 'Dr Doom' for his pessimistic forecasts -- said fiscal and monetary stimulus had prevented another depression.
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Nouriel Roubini : US employment to cross 10%

LONDON: The US economy is a “fiscal train wreck” waiting to happen that risks ushering in a period of stagnation featuring minimal growth, high unemployment and deflationary pressure, US economist Nouriel Roubini wrote on Friday.

In a commentary for The Financial Times, Roubini — one of the first economists to predict the housing crash in the United States and known as ‘Dr Doom’ for his pessimistic forecasts — said fiscal and monetary stimulus had prevented another depression.

But he said that further quantitative easing likely to be announced by the Federal Reserve next Wednesday will have little effect on US growth in 2011, “so fiscal policy should be doing some of the lifting to prevent a double dip recession”, he said. 
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Nouriel Roubini - Nassim Taleb - Predicting The Crisis

Predicting Crisis: Dr. Doom & the Black Swan How to predict a financial crisis and the five signs of a bear, with Nouriel Roubini, RGE Monitor and Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan author.

Nassim Taleb Do not trust the Banks

Nassim Taleb Says Banks Hijack Us, Can't Be Trusted

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the best-selling "The Black Swan" and founder of Universa Investments, talks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua and Erik Schatzker about the financial crisis and the outlook for U.S. banks.
Taleb speaks on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini Predicts Fiscal Train Wreck

Oct. 29 2010 | With the GOP slated to take over the House, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, tells CNBC the Congressional gridlock will get even worse, leading to a "fiscal train wreck."

Nassim Taleb, Says Focus on Specific Trades in Selloff Misguided

(Bloomberg) -- Nassim Taleb, a professor at New York University and author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," talks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker about the May 6 stock market selloff and his investment strategy. Taleb also discusses the drivers for the financial crisis, the U.S. economy and the performance of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. (Source: Bloomberg)

Nassim Taleb speaks at JMU

Author of "The Black Swan" discussed his economic theories with students at James Madison University.

Inside Job Trailer 2010 HD

Takes a closer look at what brought about the financial meltdown.

Release date: October 8, 2010

Cast: Matt Damon, Barney Frank, Jonathan Alpert, Daniel Alpert, Glenn Hubbard, Nouriel Roubini, Eliot Spitzer

Find tickets: http://www.fandango.com/insidejob_131...

IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1645089/

Nouriel Roubini On ET NOW on Coffee and Conversations With Shaili Chopra

Coffee & Conversations With Nouriel Roubini anchored by Shaili Chopra, ET NOW along with Sanjay Nayar, Adi Godrej, Chanda Kochchar of iCICI, Chadrasekharan of TCS and more.

Black Swan Author on the Financial Crisis

Oct. 25 2010 | Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author, "The Black Swan," and NYU professor, discusses who was at fault for the financial crisis, the idea that regulation doesn't work, and why debt is a bad thing.

Roubini : Greece will default

The Greek government will not be able to avoid restructuring its debt despite its ongoing austerity drive, eminent American economist Nouriel Roubini has told Kathimerini.

“If you don’t want to call it default or bankruptcy, call it a restructuring under pressure, but it’s going to happen,” said the New York University professor in an interview published in yesterday’s Kathimerini.

Roubini, who has been dubbed “Dr Doom” for his pessimistic economic outlook, has described Greece as “the Lehman Brothers of Europe” – a reference to the US investment bank whose collapse in 2008 triggered turmoil across the global financial markets.
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Arnab Das, G20 Meeting in Focus

Fri. Oct. 22 2010 | The currency wars could come to a head this weekend at the G20 summit. Arnab Das, managing director of market research and strategy of Roubini Global Economics, and Lauren Rosborough, senior currency strategist at Westpac, discuss the outlook.

Niall Ferguson: Chinese More Committed to Capitalism

October 22, 2010 -- In a panel about getting America back from the depths of economic despair at The Daily Beast's Innovators Summit in New Orleans, Niall Ferguson, historian and Harvard Business School professor, told Sir Harold Evans that, "The Chinese are more committed to capitalism than we are."

Nouriel Roubini We need to create the 1,50,000 jobs for every month

Question : Are things looking any better, given what we have seen in this week?

Nouriel Roubini : I would say no. First of all, if you look at the ISM report of manufacturing, they details of it, the inventories versus new orders was terrible, that suggests the actual economic activity is going to slow down manufacturing. The survey of ISM was actually falling, the numbers on jobs last Friday were good only because the expectations were so low. But 67,000 jobs are not enough stabilise the employment rate. We need to create the 1,50,000 jobs for every month to make sure that unemployment rate doesn’t go higher.
via www.moneycontrol.com

Nouriel Roubini on the short and medium-long economic outlook

Nouriel Roubini on short and medium-long economic outlook

- Currency War
- Trade war
- Protectionism
- Emerging markets
- The double dip

Roubini sees weak, V-shaped recovery in Emerging Markets

Economist Nouriel Roubini said that emerging-market growth would fade in this half of 2010 and in 2011, though he continues to predict a “V-shaped” recovery compared to advanced economies’ “U-shaped” path. The World Bank raised its 2010 growth forecast for emerging markets in east Asia excluding China to 6.7 per cent.
via http://blogs.ft.com

Roubini Says German Austerity Will Be Fatal for Economy, Capital Reports

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said Germany’s austerity measures, introduced to fight the aftermath of the financial crisis, are “fatal” for Europe’s largest economy, Capital magazine reported, citing an interview.
via bloomberg.com

Roubini : the stock market is going to correct

Nouriel Roubini : .....the stock market is going to correct, credit spends are going to widen, there will be a negative world effect on consumption investment, the cost of capital is going to rise and then you have another shock to the real economy that went in a vicious circle in which you can go off the cliff. That is what we are facing right now, the banks are sitting on a trillion dollar of excessive reserves, they are not lending it whether it is credit supply or demand.

Nouriel Roubini on jobs creation and economic Growth

Nouriel Roubini : "....If you don’t create jobs there is no labour increment, there is no consumption growth and the risk of a double dip becomes worse. Paradoxically in the last few quarters there has been a switch of distribution of income from labour to capital and to profits and these profits are not being reinvested and firms are not hiring workers. What can we do is difficult, we are in a process of deleveraging which is going to occur for a while. What can we do?—I would try to subsidise the demand for labour. I think instead of having an investment tax credit that boosts even more capex spending, this capital intensive, I would do a temporary cut in the payroll tax for two years. If you want to increase demand for labour rather than demand for capital, I would do a payroll tax rather than investment tax like Obama has suggested. So that would be something that reduces their labour cost for the producers."

Roubini Expects 35-40% Chance of a Double Dip Recession in U.S.

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said he expects a 35 percent to 40 percent chance of the U.S. entering a double-dip recession, highlighting the risks faced by the world’s largest economy.

“Since second quarter growth in U.S. was only 1.7 percent and everything’s going to be weaker in the second half of the year, by the fourth quarter economic growth in the U.S. could be as low as 1 percent,” Roubini said in a conference today in Seoul. “The growth rate is so low it’s going to feel like a recession even if technically this is not a recession.”
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Nouriel Roubini: This Is What Obama Could Do To Prevent A Double-Dip

BY NOURIEL ROUBINI, MICHAEL MORAN | NOVEMBER 2010

Roughly three years since the onset of the financial crisis, the U.S. economy increasingly looks vulnerable to falling back into recession. The United States is flirting with "stall speed," an anemic rate of growth that, if it persists, can lead to collapses in spending, consumer confidence, credit, and other crucial engines of growth. Call it a "double dip" or the Great Recession, Round II: Whatever the term, we're talking about a negative feedback loop that would be devilishly hard to break.
If Barack Obama wants a realistic shot at a second term, he'll need to act quickly and decisively to prevent this scenario.

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Jim Wolfensohn, Nouriel Roubini and Chrystia Freeland - US Zeitgeist 2010

Jim Wolfensohn, Nouriel Roubini and Chrystia Freeland - US Zeitgeist 2010

Nouriel Roubini : Rising Sovereign Debt Leads to Inflation, Defaults

“The bond vigilantes are walking out on Greece, Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and Iceland,”  “Unfortunately in the U.S., the bond-market vigilantes are not walking out.” Roubini said during a panel discussion on financial markets at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California.
“The thing I worry about is the buildup of sovereign debt,” said Nouriel Roubini, a former adviser to the U.S. Treasury and IMF consultant who in August 2006 predicted a “painful” U.S. recession that came to fruition in December 2007. If the problem isn’t addressed, he said, nations will either fail to meet obligations or see faster inflation as officials “monetize” their debts, or print money to tackle the shortfalls.

“While today markets are worried about Greece, Greece is just the tip of the iceberg, or the canary in the coal mine for a much broader range of fiscal problems,” Roubini, who teaches at NYU’s Stern School of Business, told attendees at the Beverly Hilton hotel. Increasing tax revenue won’t be enough to “save the day,” he added.

Roubini : Emerging markets are growing but rest of the world is not

Nouriel Roubini : "Emerging markets are growing but rest of the world—half of euro zone is not growing, it is contracted, the periphery, Japan is on a verge of a double dip, emerging markets are doing well but many of them like China depend on economic growth in West Europe and Japan. Therefore the slowdown of US, Europe and Japan is already leading to an economic slowdown in China and India and even in Brazil and thus they cannot be remained locomotives of global growth, China is not large enough to be the only engine global growth, we need growth in United States, in Europe and Japan that is not occurring."
via www.moneycontrol.com

Roubini, Volcker Both Issue Grim Outlooks For U.S. Economy

Former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker and economist Nouriel Roubini seem equally pessimistic about a U.S. economic recovery.

"This has not been an ordinary recession," Volcker, who chairs the president's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, said in a Toronto speech Thursday, according to Bloomberg, and he added that it's "very difficult to find a sector in the American economy that has any spark to it."

Roubini, chairman and co-founder of Roubini Global Economics, expressed a similarly bleak outlook, reiterating his belief that there's a 40 percent chance the economy could slip into another recession, Market Watch reports. Even without a double dip, it will feel like the economy is in a recession, he added. Roubini, whom the New York Times has labeled "Dr. Doom," and who in 2006 predicted the housing crisis, first tweeted the double-dip probability in August and stuck to that belief in September.
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Nouriel Roubini - US Zeitgeist 2010

Nouriel Roubini: The age of the West is over . “There is an absolute fall in the performance of advanced economies,” Roubini said during this talk at the Google Zeitgeist conference.

Roubini : China may face greater headwinds should there be weak growth in the US and Europe

"China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, may face greater headwinds should there be weak growth in the US and Europe " New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, where he is attending a conference.“We know the second half of the year is going to be worse than the first half of the year because of the tailwinds to growth from the fiscal stimulus” turning into austerity, he said. “The main scenario is an anemic recovery, but I don’t rule out that a double-dip will occur” in the US, Roubini added .

Roubini : Japan is on a verge of a double

Nouriel Roubini :"Emerging markets are growing but rest of the world—half of euro zone is not growing, it is contracted, the periphery, Japan is on a verge of a double dip, emerging markets are doing well but many of them like China depend on economic growth in West Europe and Japan. Therefore the slowdown of US, Europe and Japan is already leading to an economic slowdown in China and India and even in Brazil and thus they cannot be remained locomotives of global growth, China is not large enough to be the only engine global growth, we need growth in United States, in Europe and Japan that is not occurring."
in www.moneycontrol.com

Roubini : The Too Bigger to Fail Risk for U.S.

“The ‘too big to fail’ problem has become an even too bigger to fail” problem, “That is what happens when you do mergers that don’t make any sense.” Roubini said today at the Bloomberg Dealmakers Summit in New York.
in bloomberg.com

How black is your swan - Nassim Taleb

You may or may not swallow every word of The Black Swan series. Some say all swans are grey, it is only the shade of grey that varies.

In this June 2010 interview, in just 7 minutes of video, Nassim Taleb & Nouriel Roubini alert listeners to the folly of taking private debt public, then paying it down by inflation (a charge on the succeeding generations). And if you aren't concerned, well thats OK - US debt sits only at 11% of GDP, which is still short of the 13% at which the bond vigilantes pulled the rug on Greece.

Roubini sees more Doom for world economy and the Emerging markets in particular

Speaking at the World Capital Markets Conference in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, World Famous Professor of economics Dr. Nouriel Roubini clearly expressed his pessimism regarding world economy , in particular in the united states he did not rule out a repeat of a major economic recession , where he said about 300 banks have gone bankrupt over the past couple of years.
Nouriel Roubini stated that "nothing has changed fundamentally. When the regulatory reform was passed by the U.S. Congress, my view is too little, too late. We are already in a situation which is going to feel like a recession, (even) if we are not in one." Roubini sees more Doom to come for world economy and in particular for the Emerging markets

Roubini : There is no full decoupling from the West

KUALA LUMPUR: The outlook for the global economy is not good, according to Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

There is a possibility of another recession in the world’s largest economy, the United States, he said and in Asia, in particular China, the world’s fastest growing economy, a derail in growth could be on the cards should there be continued weakness from Western economies.

“There is no full decoupling from the West,” he said at a panel discussion the symposium here yesterday.
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Nassim Taleb, bullish on Canada

Taleb, a native of Lebanon who gave his speech in French to an audience of Quebec business people, said Canada’s fiscal situation makes the country a safer investment than its southern neighbor.

Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries and will keep that distinction until at least 2014, the country’s finance department said in March. Canada’s ratio, 24 percent in 2007, will rise to about 30 percent by 2014. The U.S. ratio, now above 40 percent, will top 80 percent in four years, the department said, citing IMF data.

“I am bullish on Canada,” he told the audience. “I prefer Canada to the U.S. or even Europe.”

via businessweek.com>>>>

Roubini : Expect a Slow and Anemic Recovery

Sept. 26 2010 | Expect a "slow and anemic recovery" in the U.S. as the housing sector is still in a funk while the labor market is not improving, says Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics. He shares his thoughts on the economy, with CNBC's Martin Soong.

Roubini : 20% Yuan Rise Wont Hurt China

Sept. 26 2010 | A 20% appreciation of the yuan won't hurt China, says Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics, as he believes it won't happen all at once. He sheds light on the yuan, with CNBC's Martin Soong.

Nouriel Roubini : Japan outlook anemic

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said there’s a high probability of another recession in the U.S., with Japan’s outlook “anemic,” underscoring risks to the global recovery.

China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, may face greater headwinds should there be weak growth in the U.S. and Europe, Roubini said in Kuala Lumpur today, where he is attending a conference. Second-quarter gross domestic product figures for the U.S. are likely to be revised lower after “awful” June real-estate numbers, he also said.

Austerity measures to cut debt in advanced nations are hurting consumer and business confidence, and households in some of the largest economies are holding back spending. Emerging economies may have to get used to relying on domestic demand in a period of subdued growth for developed countries, Roubini said.
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Roubini : U.S. Payroll Tax Cut Would Spur Jobs

The U.S. government should use a temporary reduction in payroll taxes to boost employment, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.

“Firms are sitting on cash, but they are perceiving labor costs as being too high,” Roubini, 52, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “We have to reduce labor costs by reducing payroll taxes on a temporary basis for employers.”
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Arnab Das, More Stress Tests Required?

Sept. 10 2010 | Arnab Das, Managing Director of market strategy and research at Roubini Global Economics told CNBC he believes another round of bank stress tests will be required once the new Basel III guidelines are in place and banks are fully recapitalized. “The main uncertainty stems not from Basel III or the banks stress tests in the EU…but it is a question of where is the economy is going…We are facing some headwinds because this is not a conventional situation,” he said.

Nouriel Roubini : What America needs is a payroll tax cut,

It's time for the U.S. to roll out a payroll tax cut

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/22/AR2010092205721.html

Thursday, September 23, 2010

In the Sept. 17 Washington Forum piece "What America needs is a payroll tax cut," Nouriel Roubini correctly argued that broad income tax cuts and tax cuts encouraging capital investment do not necessarily benefit workers, and that a better approach is to reduce labor costs through a payroll tax cut.

Read Article >>>

Stephen Roach, : Sluggish, Anemic U.S. Economic Recovery

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Roach also discusses U.S. stance on China's currency policy, and Lawrence Summers's departure from his job as director of the president’s National Economic Council. He talks from New York with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)

David Levy Sees 60% Chance of Another U.S. Recession

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- David Levy, chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. Levy, speaking with Carol Massar, Matt Miller and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart," also discusses China's currency policy and the U.S. dollar. (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini : Stocks not yet pricing in economic reality

Roubini with Some Interesting Perspectives, 09/03/10

Roubini says the fiscal stimulus "becomes a drag" late this year and that monetary expansion won't be helpful given that there are already over $1 trillion in excess bank reserves, long term rates are low, and we're in a process of massive deleveraging. This is in sharp contrast to Bernanke's claims that the Fed still has some easing tools that can make a difference.

Nouriel Roubini : things are going to get worse before they get better

Roubini : .... if you consider what happens, growth in second quarter was estimated originally at 2.4 then at 1.6. Given the new housing numbers are going to be revised to 1.2 that is already a growth recession and we know there is second half of the year is going to be worse than the first half because all the tailwinds to growth become headwinds. We have had the fiscal stimulus come to the economic growth, the base effects are gone, the inventory adjustments are gone and demand for homes has fallen. So we know the second half is going to be worse than the first half, you look at the data for July and August, they all suggest the slowdown and if you start from 1.2 in Q2, the third quarter looks lacking less than 1% and 1% maybe not technically a double dip recession but it is going to feel like recession because there is not going to be job creation.


Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, shares his economic outlook with Richard Trumka, of the AFL-CIO, and CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.

Roubini, Zandi: Mortgage defaults as economic therapy

 source : http://voices.washingtonpost.com/political-economy/2010/09/default_on_your_mortgage_--_fo.html
By Howard Schneider

Top economists Nouriel Roubini and Mark Zandi took the stage at an International Monetary Fund conference room on Friday and presented a novel spin on the mortgage defaults still plaguing the home industry: they may be "therapeutic." Instead of letting the housing market continue to bleed out slowly for years to come, they should be accelerated so that home prices and household equity can start to recover, Roubini and Zandi said..
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Nouriel Roubini :Outlook for U.S. Economy

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and the possibility of a double-dip recession, which he puts at 40 percent. (This report is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

Who is Nassim Taleb ?

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Christian Lebanese born in 1960 , a writer an essayist, scholar and former practitioner of mathematical finance a former Wall Street trader as well as a professor in risk engineering. He is best known as the author of the book 'The Black Swan' , a book about uncertainty, published in 2007 and completed in 2010.Taleb has had three distinct careers, built around what he calls "epistemic limitations and constraints": probability, uncertainty and the fragility of human knowledge, which he packaged as the theory of Black Swan Events. He holds an MBA from the University of Pennsylvania and Ph.D. in management science from the University of Paris (Dauphine). He speaks English, French, Arabic, Italian and Spanish and reads Greek, Latin and ancient Hebrew.

Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground

Economists peddling dire warnings that the world's number one economy is on the brink of collapse, amid high rates of unemployment and a spiraling public deficit, are flourishing here.

The guru of this doomsday line of thinking may be economist Nouriel Roubini, thrust into the forefront after predicting the chaos wrought by the subprime mortgage crisis and the collapse of the housing bubble.

"The US has run out of bullets," Roubini told an economic forum in Italy earlier this month. "Any shock at this point can tip you back into recession."
read article at www.breitbart.com >>>

Roubini : Emerging markets are doing well

Nouriel Roubini :"Emerging markets are growing but rest of the world—half of euro zone is not growing, it is contracted, the periphery, Japan is on a verge of a double dip, emerging markets are doing well but many of them like China depend on economic growth in West Europe and Japan. Therefore the slowdown of US, Europe and Japan is already leading to an economic slowdown in China and India and even in Brazil and thus they cannot be remained locomotives of global growth, China is not large enough to be the only engine global growth, we need growth in United States, in Europe and Japan that is not occurring."
via www.moneycontrol.com

Roubini : the dollar, the yen, and the Swiss franc better investments than Gold

At a recent conference on the shores of Como Lake in Italy Nouriel Roubini told the European economic leaders that the “US has run out of bullets.” and that More quantitative easing (treasury bond purchases) by the FED is not going to make any difference . Roubini explained that in the case of a double dip recession, he believes that the dollar, the yen, and the Swiss franc may be better investments than gold because the currencies are more liquid than the gold market.... Gold will be one of the preferred safe haven investments if the economy slips back into recession , "But in that situation, things like the dollar, the yen, the Swiss franc have more upside in a situation of rising risk aversion because they are much more liquid than the gold market", Roubini said.. Roubini believes that the price of Gold will rather stay at the current levels : "I believe that gold is going to trade around current level. There are two extreme events that lead to a spike in gold. One is inflation, but we have no inflation in advanced economies. If anything, there is a risk of deflation. The other event in which gold prices go up is the risk of a global financial meltdown, and that tail risk has been reduced because we backstopped the financial system." He explained