Nouriel Roubini : Spain too large to be saved

Nouriel Roubini : " Spain is not only too big for it could be allowed to fail - it is also too large to be saved."
Roubini told a German newspaper , Nouriel Roubini is one of the few economists who warned in 2006, about the financial crisis. Because of his often pessimistic forecasts, he also carries the nick name "Dr. Doom" He did not rule that the debt crisis could spread to Italy and Belgium.

Roubini : The probability that Spain will lose in the next twelve months access to financial markets, is at 50 percent

"The probability that Spain will lose in the next twelve months access to financial markets, is at 50 percent," Economist Nouriel Roubini said recently in London in a speech to the London Business School of Economics. In the worst case could spill over the debt crisis of Europe, the United States. "It may well come in the bond markets to a rebellion against the United States." The probability is was low, but it is increasing. "We must not underestimate this risk."

Roubini : The Yen should weaken in the long run

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman & Co-founder of Roubini Global Economics speaks to CNBC about his outlook for Japan and the Yen "there is not enough transparency and when there is not enough transparency the markets get nervous " Nouriel Roubini says we do not know much damage (there is in Japan after the quake the Tsunami and the nuclear fallout )

Nouriel Roubini : Romania has the potential to attract Foreign Direct Investment

During a keynote speech someone from the audience asked Dr. Nouriel Roubini what he thinks of the situation in Romania , hiw answer was (the transcript is below the video ):


Nouriel Roubini : Romania has the potential to attract Foreign Direct Investment in the manufacturing segment."
"The type of the global economic crisis, Romania - as many countries in Central and Eastern Europe - has faced serious economic and financial challenges: increasing the budget deficit, current account deficits, overvalued currencies. Romanian State (as Lithuania, Hungary and other Central and Eastern European countries involved in an IMF program) was under strong financial pressure and needed the support of the international community.There were omissions in this program and the ability to control the indebtedness of the state was a challenge. The international community expresses its financial support for Romania and for its efforts. Romania is a country that, thanks to geographical positioning and low cost of labor may attract FDI, especially in the segment of production. Thus, they can only sustain the economy. We have to balance their taxes, this is really a challenge for Romania and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. "

Nouriel Roubini on The G20 process for efficacy

Nouriel Roubini : I believe, on one side, it is necessary because the global economic and financial problems require a systemically important emerging market economies to be on the table.You cannot resolve problems of global imbalance , energy security, financial stability and climate change without having countries like India and China and many other emerging markets on board.In that sense, G7 was obsolete. But in other sense, it is much difficult to reach an agreement with 20 countries on the table and therefore, agreements were only in the time of crisis. But now there is wide divergence of views on a wide spectrum of issues. "

Roubini on The Middle East unrest and its implications on the Oil Prices

In an article entitled : Global stakes of Mideast turmoil dated 19 March 2011 on the ArabAmericanNews.com Professor Nouriel Roubini gives a detailed analysis on the situation in the middle east and the possible implications on the global economy especially the rising oil prices he wrote "Severe unrest in the Middle East has historically been a source of oil-price spikes, which in turn have triggered three of the last five global recessions. The Yom Kippur War in 1973 caused a sharp increase in oil prices, leading to the global stagflation of 1974-1975. The Iranian revolution in 1979 led to a similar stagflationary increase in oil prices, which culminated in the recession of 1980-1981. And Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 led to a spike in oil prices at a time when a U.S. banking crisis was already tipping America into recession."
read full article here >>>

Control on short term capital flows tend to affect the composition of inflows between short term and long term capital

Nouriel Roubini :"This is one of the options that countries are increasingly considering and applying. Brazil and Korea have done so. If inflows of capital becomes excessive and this leads to excessive appreciation, one could impose controls on short term capital inflows. The evidence, however, shows that control on short term capital flows tend to affect the composition of inflows between short term and long term capital.They don't tend to affect very much overall volume of inflows. So, if you are concerned about hot money, it is effective. But if your concern is about inflows appreciating your currency, those controls are not affecting the overall volume of flows. " in an interview with ET Now

Roubini : Japan needs to significantly depreciate the Yen

In an interview today with CNBC Dr Nouriel Roubini talked about the Japan quake and its impact on the global economy , the future for the Yen and the Japaneses economy in general and its impact globally "Japan is going to need significant depreciation of the yen to increase its net exports because domestic demand is going to be anemic for a while. Therefore on a fundamental basis, the yen is going to be much weaker rather than stronger because you need improvement of external balance given the shock to the domestic economy," Nouriel Roubini told CNBC

Roubini on Indian GDP growth and Inflation

Nouriel Roubini :"....In part, what is happening is that some of the inflationary pressures are external to the country. There is increase in global commodity prices. Oil, energy, food-... that is not directly in your control.But it is also that domestic demand has been robust for good reasons. But, constraints are on the supply side. If demand is growing, supply has to grow as fast to maintain price stability. There are bottlenecks on the productive side of the economy because of lack of infrastructure.Invest in a various range of economic reforms to sustain an increase in potential growth. Make sure that as potential growth becomes higher, actual economic growth becomes higher and then inflationary pressures get contained. If actual growth becomes higher than potential, then one of the consequences will be rising inflation...."
in ET Now

Nouriel Roubini : Japan Quake Worst Thing at Worst Time

Roubini Says Japan Quake 'Worst Thing' at Worst Time , it will weaken the economic activities as people die or could not work Nouriel Roubini, founder of Roubini Global Economics, discusses the 8.9 magnitude earthquake in Japan and the European debt crisis. Roubini says that the ECB will keep raising rates beyond April , Roubini believes that it would be wrong for ECB to raise borrowing costs

Nouriel Roubini : uncertainties weighing on growth

"There are many positives in the global economy but significant uncertainties still remain," "For the next few years, we will be living in a world where these uncertainties may have a negative impact on the economy and financial markets." Nouriel Roubini said on Tuesday at an investment conference in Dubai.
via www.moneycontrol.com

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - India Today Conclave 2010

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Philosopher & Expert On Risk - Session Economy - Power of the Unknown- India Today Conclave 2010.

Charlie Rose - Nassim Taleb

Charlie Rose - Nassim Taleb : Author Nassim Taleb on deficits

Nouriel Roubini : The ECB is rushing too fast into hiking rates

Mar. 4 2011 | "i think that the ECB is rushing too fast into hiking rates," Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics told CNBC.Nouriel Roubini : ECB April Rate Hike a Mistake

Nassim Taleb, America finds fools to buy its bonds, January 2011

Nassim Taleb, fragile investments at this time, January 2011:
The American budget deficit is worse than that of Greece ...the fact that you can find some fool to buy your bonds so far may cease ....the Chinese have so far 2 trillion and we need a trillion to borrow ...and now it is partly done by printing and partly done by going to find a fool to buy the bonds ...so really we have a very fragile situation in the United States without unlike Greece having the IMF on top to force them ...


Nassim Taleb, fragile investments at this time, January 2011

Roubini The Sharp rise in food commodities and the unrest in the Middle east

Nouriel Roubini :......The Sharp rise in food commodities and the Middle east unrest n are the next crisis , it is not only in the middle east but also in India Pakistan and other parts of the world , the rise of commodity prices is leading to social instability , we can see regimes changes in most of the middle east countries in the next months if not in the next years , the most probable candidates according to Nouriel Roubini are Yemen which could see a break-up and a possible civil war , Bahrain may see a regime change which will trigger changes in neighboring eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia also a majority Shiites just like Bahrain but ruled by Sunni dynasties , the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia are those with most of the oil fields , another possible candidate for unrest are Jordan Syria and of course Iran ....

Nassim Taleb on ManagemenTV

I like the interviewer, he seems like an ordinary guy, partly clueless. Also, this was a good summary of many of the points Nassim Taleb has been trying to make, since Fooled By Randomness and onward.It's good that Nassim is taking his time with the book, but also sad that it probably won't be here for several years.

Nouriel Roubini : unrest in Libya could lead to a spike in oil prices and global recession

Nouriel Roubini  : "...three out of the past five global recessions have followed a Middle East geopolitical shock that led to a spike in oil prices. In the other two global recessions, oil prices also played a role...."
via www.citywire.co.uk

Nouriel Roubini, and Ian Bremmer, outlook on the Economy 15 Feb 2011 CNBC

Tues. Feb. 15 2011 | Discussing whether economic recovery has taken hold, with Frederic Mishkin, former Federal Reserve Board governor; Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics; and Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group.

Nouriel Roubini : we are pushing the problem towards the future

Feb 18, 2011 | Economist Nouriel Roubini says to avoid a 'fisical train wreck' America needs to make sacrifices and have leaders take risks.
Nouriel Roubini :"...I think we are kicking the can down the road and the president the democrats are doing it but also the republicans , in order to reduce the budget deficit we have to cut spending and eventually it will also increase revenues and taxes but so far the democrats are against entitlement reforms that is necessary medicare medicaid social security and the republicans are against any form of tax increases ..." we are pushing the problem towards the future ..." Roubini added

Nouriel Roubini, CNBC Interview 15 Feb 2011 - insight on the economy and markets

Final insight on the economy and markets, with Frederic Mishkin, former Federal Reserve Board governor; Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics; and Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group.

Nouriel Roubini, : Checking Economy s Pulse

Feb. 15 2011 | Insight on U.S. retail sales and other economic data, with CNBC's Rick Santelli & Steve Liesman; Frederic Mishkin, former Federal Reserve Board governor; Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics; and Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group.

Nouriel Roubini, and Ian Bremmer on the G-zero world

Balance of Power Politics
Feb. 15 2011 | Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics, and Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group, discuss the rise of conflict and less cooperation in international economic relations

Roubini : Inflation worrisome in EMs, oil price risky

Nouriel Roubini : “In the next few months equities could rise, because their corporate profits are still strong. The question is whether the economic recovery is going to be sustained and whether some of the risks that we are seeing down the line on the financial markets are going to materialize. I think they would materialize,”



Burgeoning inflation has plagued the emerging markets including India while governments are trying to tame it by tightening of monetary policies. Global investors and experts are concerned about it too.According to Nouriel Roubini , equities may rise over next few months.

Roubini : No crisis is identical but many of them are similar

Roubini : No crisis is identical but many of them are similar. There is a stage of boom and bubble before the bust and the crash. People will see the value of certain assets like homes or equity go up, then they will use these assets as a collateral for borrowing too much and therefore you have a build-up of leverage in the financial system. And then, once the bubble goes bust, the value of the assets falls and people are stuck with all this debt they can't repay.
in www.spiegel.de

Roubini : The financial supermarket model obviously has not worked

Nouriel Roubini :" ......It's a good start, but I am thinking in a more radical direction. The financial supermarket model obviously has not worked. An institution where you have, all in one place, commercial banking, investment banking, hedge funds, insurance and lots of other financial services becomes too complex to manage. No CEO can effectively monitor that. So, this all needs too be broken up into pieces. If you have many different institutions which do different types of financial services, none of them will be systemically important...."   Nouriel Roubini was commenting on the US President Barack Obama has introduced plans for financial reform, including the so-called Volcker rule
in www.spiegel.de

Roubini : commodities rush not all due to demand but also to massive liquidity

Nouriel Roubini : ....Possibly. To me it looks like some of it is not due to demand but liquidity chasing commodity. It is one of my major concerns right now: We decided to save the global economy by flooding the world with a massive amount of liquidity. Now we risk making the same mistake as during the last cycle....
in www.spiegel.de

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Complains About Bailout Hazard

We are bailing out the banks ... and the managers kept their bonuses. Bob Rubin kept 100 million dollars while hiding Black Swan risk. Nassim Taleb complains on Fareed Zakaria's CNN show.you can't run a system based on any commercial enterprise capitalizing their profits and socializing their losses


Politics is about power to choose who lives or dies literally and economically. If the US govt has no constitutional authority to invest in commercial ventures and all the money must be borrowed then why not borrow enough to give every taxpayer a 100% refund check for all 2008 taxes paid + enough to run the govt through 2009 so that no one would have to pay any taxes for 2009? This would be constitutional and the taxpayers would jump-start the economy from the ground up...immediately. Too easy??

Roubini: It is necessary to start with a pre-emptive debt restructuring

Roubini : ...It is necessary to start with a pre-emptive debt restructuring. We have to find an orderly solution for debtors and creditors. And we also need to work out fiscal adjustments for other euro zone countries like Portugal or Spain....
in www.spiegel.de

Black Swan quot; Author Nassim Taleb on Bloomberg Television 1

Black Swan quot; Author Nassim Taleb on Bloomberg Television 1

Nouriel Roubini discusses the Egypt situation

Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini discusses the Egypt situation along with global inflation and food inflation. Roubini also mentions U.S. & European economic crisis and states that Greece will re-structure its debt as well as Ireland. Restructuring is a matter of "when, not if".

Roubini : France not in risk of immediate contagion

Nouriel Roubini ...:...France I do not think it is in immediate danger of being subject to the same kind of contagion and the bond market vigilantes waking up because the fundamentals are riven but on the other side I would say the following thing : you know Sarkozy came to power a few years ago with a lot of promises of doing a lot of structural reforms but frankly so far he has done very little , now you also have a very large fiscal deficit , last year the fiscal deficit of France was bigger than the one of say Italy that is considered one of the the risky countries ..., of course the stock of public debt of France is not as high as in Italy or the peripheral Euro Zone and the bond vigilantes have not yet waken up , but now you are in situation in which France has to do fiscal austerity we'll have to accelerate structural reforms but I think the political appetite for it is limited in France ...etc....

Nouriel Roubini : This year could be a positive year for equities

Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini is seeing light at the end of the tunnel. The global economy is moving forward, the eurozone is dealing with the problems and the US keeps stimulating their economic situation. Although there are still many problems, Roubini is positive for equities.

Nouriel Roubini : Greece not just illiquid, but insolvent

Nouriel Roubini : ....That is only kicking the can down the road for a year. I am afraid that Greece, more likely than not ,isn't just illiquid, but insolvent. And providing an insolvent country with money and forcing it to make painful cuts isn't going to do it. Even if taxes are raised and spending is cut, Greece won't necessarily become more competitive. On the contrary, output might fall, unemployment might rise and market share will be lost. We need a plan B....
in www.spiegel.de

Roubini : Emerging Markets, Commodities Are Best Bets

Feb. 3 2011 | Investors facing a global economy that is moving back and forth between "risk on" and "risk off" should look to emerging markets and commodities, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, told CNBC Thursday.