Roubini : Employment Report weak; implies no Taper in Sept

Nouriel Roubini : Employment report weak; it implies no taper in Sept or a symbolic taper with a dovish FOMC statement to prevent further rise in long rates - in Twitter

Roubini ‏: Fall in Unemployment Rate is driven by fall in labor force participation rate

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Fall in unemployment rate is driven by fall in labor force participation rate, sign of labor market weakness with more discouraged workers - in twitter

Roubini ‏: The Fed should not start tapering given mediocre GDP growth and labor Market

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Tapering of September Tapering. The Fed should not start tapering given mediocre GDP growth and labor market. Bond yields mispriced - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini ‏: No case for Taper

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Q2 growth is 1.9% ex inv. Q3 weaker. UNEMP rate falling only coz of lab force part rate, most components of demand lower. No case for taper - in twitter

The BRICS were overhyped for too long

These economies – the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and others – were overhyped for too long. Favorable external conditions – the effect of China’s strong growth on higher commodity prices and easy money from yield-hungry advanced-economy investors – led to a partly artificial boom. Now that the party is over, the hangover is setting in.

This is especially true in India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, and Indonesia, all of which suffer from multiple macroeconomic and policy weaknesses – large current-account deficits, wide fiscal deficits, slowing growth, and above-target inflation – as well as growing social protest and political uncertainty ahead of elections in the next 12-18 months. There are no easy choices: defending the currency by hiking interest rates would kill growth and harm banks and corporate firms; loosening monetary policy to boost growth might push their currencies into free-fall, causing a spike in inflation and jeopardizing their ability to attract capital to finance their external deficits. - in project syndicate

Stock Market Rally, Asset Bubbles & Crash

“For the next year or so, as long as the economy grows 1.5-2 percent, and you have easy money, this market can go higher. Growth is slow. Earnings growth is also slowing down. Top line and bottom line are not as good as they used to be, but margins are high. They could correct, somehow, over time. This might lead to a generalized credit and equity and asset bubble in the next year or two, followed by a crash.”

Emerging Market Rout: There`s More To Come

"I do not think we are finished with the rout in any of the emerging market asset classes, maybe we are more than midway but there is more to come. After all, what we know about the global environment is that the West is showing more signs of recovery. That points to tapering from the Fed.

Roubini ‏: Great Minds speak about ideas; little minds speak about other people

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Great minds speak about ideas; little minds speak about other people

Investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US National Politics has become

"So far, investors have been complacent about the risks posed by the looming budget fight," said Nouriel Roubini. "They believe that – as in the past – the fiscal showdown will end with a midnight compromise that avoids both default and a government shutdown." "But investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US national politics has become," he warned. "With a majority of the Republican Party on a jihad against government spending, fiscal explosions this autumn cannot be ruled out." - in project syndicate

Roubini’s Sexy Tub Doomed

“Dr. Doom” economist Nouriel Roubini has been forced to remove his giant hot tub — famed for being packed with hot young models at his wild parties — from the roof of his Manhattan penthouse by the city.

Roubini, dubbed Dr. Doom for predicting the financial crisis, ran afoul of the Department of Buildings after he did not get approval for the tub, large enough to hold 10, and the wooden roof deck he had built at his East First Street bachelor pad for his boisterous bacchanals.

Now Roubini has been slapped with a violation and was ordered to remove the Jacuzzi, the deck and a party room he built, complete with a bar and bathroom, on the roof of his party penthouse.
read more : http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/roubini_sexy_tub_doomed_YAdrTyZin7MmLs8fJGhgXM >>>>>

ROUBINI: Investors Are Underestimating The Republican Jihad Against Spending

Nouriel Roubini : ... yet another partisan struggle over America’s debt ceiling could increase the risk of a government shutdown if the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies cannot agree on a budget.

...So far, investors have been complacent about the risks posed by the looming budget fight. They believe that – as in the past – the fiscal showdown will end with a midnight compromise that avoids both default and a government shutdown. But investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US national politics has become. With a majority of the Republican Party on a jihad against government spending, fiscal explosions this autumn cannot be ruled out. - in ProjectSyndicate

Autumn’s Known Unknowns by Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – During the height of the Iraq war, then-US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld spoke of “known unknowns” – foreseeable risks whose realization is uncertain. Today, the global economy is facing many known unknowns, most of which stem from policy uncertainty.
In the United States, three sources of policy uncertainty will come to a head this autumn. For starters, it remains unclear whether the Federal Reserve will begin to “taper” its open-ended quantitative easing (QE) in September or later, how fast it will reduce its purchases of long-term assets, and when and how fast it will start to raise interest rates from their current zero level. There is also the question of who will succeed Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman. Finally, yet another partisan struggle over America’s debt ceiling could increase the risk of a government shutdown if the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies cannot agree on a budget.

The first two sources of uncertainty have already affected markets. The rise in US long-term interest rates – from a low of 1.6% in May to recent peaks above 2.9% – has been driven by market fears that the Fed will taper QE too soon and too fast, and by the uncertainty surrounding Bernanke’s successor.

 http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-main-risks-to-the-global-economy-in-the-coming-months-by-nouriel-roubini

The West is showing more signs of Recovery

"I do not think we are finished with the rout in any of the emerging market asset classes, maybe we are more than midway but there is more to come. After all, what we know about the global environment is that the West is showing more signs of recovery. That points to tapering from the Fed.

We do not know exactly when that tapering is going to come. We do not know how much tapering is going to be. We do not know yet when the tapering will be followed by stop in the expansion of the Fed’s base money, more do we know when and by how much the Fed will tighten.

There are lots of stages in the shift in the US and therefore the global monetary and financial conditions environment that have yet to take place that would stretch out for a couple of years and it is that uncertainty and the threat of the coming reduction in the easing of monetary conditions that precipitated all this and on top of that now we have the Syrian situation becoming more escalated.

So, countries like India which are capital thirsty are still going to be in the forefront of this risk reduction episode across global markets." - in CNBC TV18

Roubini : Crisis in Italy goes beyond Berlusconi's Problems

Nouriel Roubini warned that instability in Italy over the future of Silvio Berlusconi could trigger early elections next year and weigh on the country’s standing on financial markets from this week.
“Our most probable scenario is elections in early 2014 but we do not exclude even sooner than that. The markets are reasoning in a similar way,” Roubini said in an interview with La Repubblica daily.

Nouriel Roubini ~ The WikiPlays Article

The WikiPlays article Nouriel Roubini is composed of Creative Common Content.
The Original Article can be location at en.wikinews.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini. birthplace Istanbul Turkey
deathdate deathplace nationality American
institution New York University
field International economics
almamater Bocconi University smallB.A. 1982smallbr Harvard University smallPh.D. 1988small
influence

Italy in Crisis : Most Probable Scenario Elections in Early 2014

“Our most probable scenario is elections in early 2014 but we do not exclude even sooner than that. The markets are reasoning in a similar way,” Roubini said in an interview with La Repubblica daily.

Roubini to Repubblica : The Markets will punish Italy

Nouriel Roubini "With the crisis soon spread to the $ 300 even now, the markets may punish Italy " "It is breaking due to Berlusconi's unofficial pact, a kind of gentlemen's agreement that was to avoid any political upheaval before the German elections. We live in a state of" controlled volatility "but if the situation is screwed, as now seems tutt 'nothing but impossible, the consequences could be very heavy for Italy. "
Roubini told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica : 
Read More in Italian http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2013/08/26/news/nouriel_roubini_con_la_crisi_spread_presto_a_quota_300_gi_da_oggi_i_mercati_possono_punire_l_italia-65318923/ >>>>

Wall Street Prefers Yellen to Summers by a 3 To 1 Ratio

Nouriel Roubini : "Yellen more dovish on monetary policy; Summers more friendly 2 Wall Street. But Wall Street prefers her by 3 to 1 ratio." - in Twitter

Oil Production has already paid foreign policy dividends

"The domestic benefits of the U.S. oil production boom are well documented — everything from the creation of high-paying jobs to sending less money to foreign oil producers.

Less well appreciated are the geopolitical benefits. U.S. oil production has already paid foreign policy dividends in at least one vital area: It has paved the way for stronger sanctions on Iran by helping to keep the global oil market well-supplied and minimizing oil price volatility.
(an excerpt from The oil boom’s foreign policy dividend By John Hannah and Nouriel Roubini)

American Economic Growth Falling Towards 2 Percent?

Nouriel Roubini : "Stagnation of US productivity over the last year. A sign that potential growth is falling towards 2%?" - in Twitter

Roubini ‏: The Fed gotta signal stronger Forward Guidance if it starts tapering in Sept

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Fed gotta signal stronger Forward Guidance if it starts tapering in Sept to prevent tightening in financial conditions from hurting growth - in Twitter

Roubini ‏: Wall Street folks prefer Yellen over Summers because Yellen is more dovish

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Wall Street folks prefer by 3 to 1 ratio Yellen over Summers in spite of latter allegedly friendly to Wall Street. Coz Yellen is more dovish - in Twitter

The BRICS May Hit A Thick Wall

"Of course, some of the better-managed emerging-market economies will continue to experience rapid growth and asset outperformance. But many of the Brics, along with some other emerging economies, may hit a thick wall, with growth and financial markets taking a serious beating." - in The Guardian

Emerging Markets Decoupling Story Was Over-Hyped

Nouriel Roubini : "Emerging markets decoupling story was always over-hyped - Fed taper talk reaction shows EMs still linked to developed world." - in Twitter

Gold Is Solely A Play On Capital Appreciation

Nouriel Roubini : "Unlike other assets, gold does not provide any income. Whereas equities have dividends, bonds have coupons, and homes provide rents, gold is solely a play on capital appreciation. Now that the global economy is recovering, other assets – equities or even revived real estate – thus provide higher returns." - in A World Of Ideas

The Next Fed Chair May Now Be the Frontrunner

Nouriel Roubini : "My new paper Larry Summers: Underdog in the Race for Fed Chair May Now Be the Frontrunner" - in Twitter

Sell Emerging Markets, but do it wisely ~ RGE's Arnab Das

Arnab Das, managing director of market research and strategy at Roubini Global Economics, tells CNBC that what's going on in India is a combination of weak governance, bad politics and bad macro imbalances. 




"People over invested in them, the stories were overhyped, too much capital went in, asset prices were too high and there was too much credit extension. And now we're going to see the pullback of that process,"
"One of the things going on here is a realization that the growth differential between emerging markets and developed countries is going to be narrower than it looked like in the immediate aftermath of the crisis," he said.

Brazil, Russia, China & South Africa having Low Growth

"Brazil's GDP grew by only 1% last year, and may not grow by more than 2% this year, with its potential growth barely above 3%. Russia's economy may grow by barely 2% this year, with potential growth also at around 3%, despite oil prices being around $100 a barrel. India had a couple of years of strong growth recently (11.2% in 2010 and 7.7% in 2011) but slowed to 4% in 2012. China's economy grew by 10% a year for the last three decades, but slowed to 7.8% last year and risks a hard landing. And South Africa grew by only 2.5% last year and may not grow faster than 2% this year." - an excerpt from the Is the emerging market boom over?

The Benefits Of The U.S. Oil Production Boom

"The domestic benefits of the U.S. oil production boom are well documented — everything from the creation of high-paying jobs to sending less money to foreign oil producers.

Less well appreciated are the geopolitical benefits. U.S. oil production has already paid foreign policy dividends in at least one vital area: It has paved the way for stronger sanctions on Iran by helping to keep the global oil market well-supplied and minimizing oil price volatility.

This development is timely and instructive."

Nouriel Roubini : Spain is starting to Recover

Nouriel Roubini : "After our meeting with politicians in Madrid we can conclude that the recession has bottomed.'ve Confirmed that the long contraction Spain is showing signs of diminishing. Any hope that the data of GDP to turn positive in late 2013 is premature, but the probability of higher qualification, stagnation recession is greater ".

And Roubini adds :

"The main problem facing the Spanish economy is the lack of recovery efforts. Symptoms to the acute phase of the crisis have been falling in the acceptance and passivity."

     "On one hand, the remarkable efforts of long-term structural reform, particularly the improvement of unit labor costs and labor market flexibility, have made a positive-momentum transmitted by exports and tourism. But on the other, Spanish politicians have little hope that the Europeans will offer serious antidotes against the legacy of austerity ".

     "We have also noted that politicians countered pessimistic IMF forecasts a 0% growth in 2013 to 2017 and GDP growth of only 1% in 2018".

Read More : http://www.periodistadigital.com/economia/empresas/2013/08/18/nouriel-roubini-espana-esta-lejos-de-arrancar-pero-ya-ha-comenzado-a-recuperarse.shtml

Potential Growth in The US falling towards 2% ?

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Stagnation of US productivity over the last year. A sign that potential growth is falling towards 2%? - in twitter

Dr Nouriel Roubini Speech @ Discovery Leadership Summit

Discovery Leadership Summit 2011: Dr Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of Roubini Global Economics

Stock Market Rally, Asset Bubbles & Crash

“For the next year or so, as long as the economy grows 1.5-2 percent, and you have easy money, this market can go higher. Growth is slow. Earnings growth is also slowing down. Top line and bottom line are not as good as they used to be, but margins are high. They could correct, somehow, over time. This might lead to a generalized credit and equity and asset bubble in the next year or two, followed by a crash.”

Nouriel Roubini - Dr, Doom Nouriel Roubini - Nouriel Roubini Financial Crisis - Next Market Crash

Nouriel Roubini also known as Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini,decided to ask James Rickards, author of "Currency Wars," why he advocates for a return to the gold standard in his book "currency wars," when it was this return to gold that was a direct cause of the Great Depression. James Rickards responded by pointing out that it was not the return to gold, but rather the return to gold at the pre-WWI price that necessitated deflation, which exacerbated the depression. Nouriel then went to town on Rickards with, what became, full out, personal insults. He called James Rickards "arrogant" and said that the Wizard of OZ is a better read for those who want to understand the gold debate than Currency Wars.

'Grexit not disaster' - Nouriel Roubini in exclusive interview to RT

'Grexit not disaster' - Nouriel Roubini in exclusive interview to RT


If the eurozone is to survive, monetary union is not sufficient, insists American economist Nouriel Roubini, who anticipated the collapse of the US housing market and and the global recession in 2008.

Roubini ‏: Japan Growth Figures add noise not clarity to sales Tax Debate

Nouriel Roubini ‏: To raise or not to raise; Abe's Hamletic dilemma "Japan growth figures add noise not clarity to sales tax debate" http://on.ft.com/13eaCjC - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini keynote speech @ IntAPBSpeakers

One of the most renowned economists of his generation, Dr. Nouriel Roubini is widely recognized for predicting the collapse of the US housing market and the global recession of 2008. An ardent researcher and strategist, Dr. Roubini is an expert on when and why economic crises happen, and was named one of Fortune's "10 new gurus you should know." He has served in a number of important positions, from senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors to director of policy development at the US Treasury Department, where he worked on the resolution of the Asian financial crisis of the late '90s and the reform of international financial architecture. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have also drawn upon his consulting expertise.

Dr. Roubini is the co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, an independent global macroeconomic and market strategy research firm. The firm's website, Roubini.com, has been named one of the best economics web resources by BusinessWeek, Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, and The Economist. He is also a professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business.

He has published numerous theoretical, empirical, and policy papers on international macroeconomic issues and co-authored the books Political Cycles: Theory and Evidence; Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Markets; and Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance. He has been the subject of an extended profile in The New York Times Magazine and was featured in The Financial Times.

In engaging keynotes, Dr. Roubini helps audiences make sense of the present economic situation by analyzing past collapses and emerging economies. He also shares his ideas on preparing for the future.

Dr. Nouriel Roubini received his undergraduate degree at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy, and a doctorate in economics at Harvard University. Prior to joining Stern, he was on the faculty of Yale University's Department of Economics.

For information on booking for an event, please visit his speaking page at:
http://www.apbspeakersinternational.c...

Nouriel Roubini: Two Futures for Europe

Nouriel Roubini: Two Futures for Europe
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of Roubini Global Economics

The Benefits Of The U.S. Oil Production Boom

"The domestic benefits of the U.S. oil production boom are well documented — everything from the creation of high-paying jobs to sending less money to foreign oil producers. Less well appreciated are the geopolitical benefits. U.S. oil production has already paid foreign policy dividends in at least one vital area: It has paved the way for stronger sanctions on Iran by helping to keep the global oil market well-supplied and minimizing oil price volatility. This development is timely and instructive." - in Reuters Blog (an excerpt from The oil boom’s foreign policy dividend By John Hannah and Nouriel Roubini)

BRICS Emerging Economies May Hit A Thick Wall

"Of course, some of the better-managed emerging-market economies will continue to experience rapid growth and asset outperformance. But many of the Brics, along with some other emerging economies, may hit a thick wall, with growth and financial markets taking a serious beating." - in The Guardian

Low Growth: Brazil, Russia, China & South Africa

"Brazil's GDP grew by only 1% last year, and may not grow by more than 2% this year, with its potential growth barely above 3%. Russia's economy may grow by barely 2% this year, with potential growth also at around 3%, despite oil prices being around $100 a barrel. India had a couple of years of strong growth recently (11.2% in 2010 and 7.7% in 2011) but slowed to 4% in 2012. China's economy grew by 10% a year for the last three decades, but slowed to 7.8% last year and risks a hard landing. And South Africa grew by only 2.5% last year and may not grow faster than 2% this year." - an excerpt from the article Is the emerging market boom over?

Gold Is Solely A Play On Capital Appreciation

"Unlike other assets, gold does not provide any income. Whereas equities have dividends, bonds have coupons, and homes provide rents, gold is solely a play on capital appreciation. Now that the global economy is recovering, other assets – equities or even revived real estate – thus provide higher returns." - in A World Of Ideas

Stock Market Rally, Asset Bubbles & Crash

“For the next year or so, as long as the economy grows 1.5-2 percent, and you have easy money, this market can go higher. Growth is slow. Earnings growth is also slowing down. Top line and bottom line are not as good as they used to be, but margins are high. They could correct, somehow, over time. This might lead to a generalized credit and equity and asset bubble in the next year or two, followed by a crash.”

Nouriel Roubini Speech at NYFA 2013

Nouriel Roubini : “A potentially a toxic nexus between on one side global climate change effects on Africa, and unfair use of natural resources that is occurring in this part of the world; and the interaction between these two things leading to social and political instability.”

Roubini : The supply of Oil and Energy is going to rise & demand is slowing down because China’s growth is slowing down

It is pretty safe to say that the commodity supercycle is dead? From your perspective, what was the reason or reasons for its end?

Nouriel Roubini : Well, I don’t think there is one reason. I would at least separate between four categories of commodities; each one of them has a different dimension of demand and supply. One is oil and energy; the second would be precious metals. The third one will be industrial and base metals, and the fourth will be soft commodities and agriculture.
There are several factors that imply the corrections. One is that China now has had a very sharp slowdown. Even other, well-advanced economies are growing weakly now. There is also the weakening of growth in many other emerging markets that is going to bear down on global growth and on various commodity prices.
Secondly, in the oil and energy sector, the shale gas and oil revolution implies a significant increase in supply. There’s lots of shale gas and oil, but of course also discoveries offshore and in oil fields from Brazil to Colombia to the oil that’s been discovered in Sub-Saharan Africa, from Sudan all the way down to Mozambique. The supply of oil and energy is going to rise. And demand is slowing down because China’s growth is slowing down, and you also have a variety of measures taken by many countries to save on energy and become more energy efficient.
The other thing is that when commodity prices were high, investments were made to increase supply, whether it was in energy or base metals or agriculture or you name it. All the new supply is coming to the market. So now the supply curve has become more elastic, and therefore the increase in supply for any given demand curve is pushing prices down lower. This is a bit of a delayed cycle, and it’s a combination of many different stories—the China story, the energy-saving story, the shale gas and oil revolution, the delayed increase in supply coming from previous high prices and so on. It’s not just one story. - in indexuniverse

Credit Crunch is still severe in Spain as policy cycle is procyclical

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Yesterday policy meetings in Madrid. Today policy meeting in Berlin. Credit crunch is still severe in Spain as policy cycle is procyclical - in twitter