Nouriel Roubini, bullish about Latin America

Nouriel Roubini : I am quite positive and bullish about Latin America compared to previous decades when you had boom and bust and financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis that occurred every few years , because I think most of Latin America but not all of it now you have new governments that are committed to structural reform they are friendly in terms of being market oriented , they've fiscal and monetary tools to smooth the economy the that they do not have that much leverage and therefore there can be sustained economic growth in Latin America ..."




Econoinvest: Economic Outlook Forum 2010. 10 years of contributions and visions for the country. Where do we go? Group of Companies invited Econoinvest Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, in an exclusive interview to discuss the global economy and the Venezuelan market.

Nouriel Roubini : Spain too big to fail & too big to be bailed out

New York University professor Nouriel Roubini discusses Spain and Italy's austerity programs,Roubini Says Spain, Italy Risk Losing Market Access he also discusses the European Central Bank policy and the outlook for the global economy. The Roubini Global Economics LLC co-founder speaks with Bloomberg TV at the Aspen Ideas Festival on July 4th 2011
Spain and Italy run a “significant risk” of losing market access if they don’t implement austerity measures, “Regardless of what happens in Greece, these countries must do the right thing or they’ll lose market access,” Roubini said , Spain is “too big to fail” and “too big to be bailed out,” he explained . “Most of the Eurozone is still contracting like the periphery,” while global growth in the second half of the year will be so weak it will “feel like recession,” Roubini added.

Roubini : We Are going to have a Massive Fiscal Drag in 2012

Nouriel Roubini , Roubini Global Economics chairman & co-founder, explains why there's a need for more fiscal stimulus, and the "perfect storm" of threats that could slam the economy by 2013. "what i've been saying whether or not the fiscal drive is next year, governments are cutting spending, phasing out federal spending and income tax and employment benefits, $200 million next year alone and 1.5% gdp implies even weaker growth. i'm in favor of fiscal services but you need a medium term plan to cut spending and raise taxes and you should have a fiscal drag and maybe even a fiscal stimulus." Roubini said

Nouriel Roubini - Global Financial Forum

Nouriel Roubini : a year ago the real economy was really in free fall , the falling output the employment demand export import was parallel on what was going on in 1929 and 1931 , and I think that after the collapse of Lehman the policy makers that have been behind the curve they looked into the base they realized that there was a risk of another depression and you have to command them for taking the very aggressive policy action that stabilized the global economy first bottoming out and out to the beginning of the recovery ,....

Roubini : The Euro zone split is imminent

Economist Nouriel Roubini wrote in the Financial Times last week that a euro zone split was "imminent" because the EU had failed to address the issues of competitiveness and economic convergence.

Roubini : Good Chance of QE3 by year-end

The probability of QE3 will become "significantly higher" if US economic weakness persists and the stock markets correct 10 percent or more.
"Especially because we cannot do another round of fiscal stimulus, the pressure is going to be on the only policy that is available,  which is another round of quantitative easing," Nouriel Roubini told CNBC recently

Nouriel Roubini - Forum Invest Finance 2011

Professor of economics Nouriel Roubini Economic Analyst, Co Founder of Roubini Global Economics, speaking during the Forum Invest Finance 2011 in Bucharest Romania May 24-26 2011 , he spoke about Greece debt its implications on the other European countries the ECB policy dealing with the Greek's debt , Portugal Ireland and Spain's debt situations

A Black Swan event can occur in the next few years

A Black Swan event can occur in the next few years that could lead a 40 percent decline in the S&P, : "from universea investments a $6 billion hedge fund. that hedge fund advised by black swan author, Nicholas Taleb. Kate Kelly obtained a warning. black swan author talib one of the most famous bears out there and now his fund which specializes in positioning clients for extremely negative market scenarios is taking this stunningly bearish position. in a research paper distributed to clients of the fund this week, mark spitnagel argues the likelihood of, are you sitting down, a 40% correction. his dire prediction is based on a look of a 110 years of equity market history and how it core lates to a a metric which is called the cue ratio, a company divided by its total assets, based on past history he asserts the current q ratio of about 1.04, s&p stocks are significantly overvalued and that there's a 20% chance of a more than 40% correction in the offing."

Roubini : perfect storm of economic disasters may smash the global economy in 2013

"There are already elements of fragility,". "Everybody's kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest." Bloomberg quotes Nouriel Roubini as saying
The US economy will never ever, ever, ever, ever recover until it returns manufacturing to its shores. Manufacturing in China is not making it, no matter how cheap the price and crummy the goods.the federal government has projected large deficits for the entire duration of its budget projection. now it wants to increase its debt without any demonstrative means to repay it. eventually, creditors will wise up and refuse to lend to these reckless fools. eventually, the federal government will go broke unless it learns to live within its means. the same holds for the reckless fools in Europe.

Nouriel Roubini's perfect storm consists of four factors:

-The U.S.'s basket-case of an economy and budget deficit,
-A potential slowdown in China,
-European debt restructuring and
-the Stagnation in Japan.
The problem seems to be that no one in the entire world believes "That there is no such thing as a free meal!" When will the world and the USA governments wake up and realize that you cannot spend money that is not backed by something of value. And that the value of something is what some one else can and is willing to pay for it

QE3 will come at year end ?

Christian Menegatti, Vice President, Global Economic Research at Roubini Global Economics says QE3 will be smaller and come at year end if it happens at all.

The global economy is a glass that is half full and half empty

Nouriel Roubini , professor of economics at New York University and the chairman and founder of Roubini Global Economics, told the crowd at at REIT Week 2011 in New York : “The global economy is a glass that is half full and half empty,”“There are many positive trends,” “but there are also a number of downsides.” Those downsides include sovereign risk that remains quite high globally, with large amounts of public debt. Also the Eurozone, though causing less concern this year than last, continues to be troublesome, particularly the smaller countries on the fringe of the union. - in www.globest.com

Christine Lagarde will be The European Candidate for IMF says Roubini

Economist Nouriel Roubini  who predicted the global financial crisis, talks to bloomberg about the effect of DSK Dominique Strauss-Kahn's resignation as head of the International Monetary Fund and his possible successor.Nouriel Roubini speaking from Milan , he says that Christine Lagarde will be probably the European candidate and that USA will understand that because it does not want to lose the control over the World Bank traditionally run by an American while the IMF is traditionally run by a European, , Roubini also discusses Greece's debt crisis.

Keynote speech by Nouriel Roubini - MIPIM 2011

Nouriel Roubini is so far ahead of most Economists intellectually that they won't even try and keep up with him. Larry Sommers response to this lecture would be "Huh? Dr Nouriel Roubini Professor of Economics, NYU's Stern School of Business; Chairman & Co-Founder, Roubini Global Economics.Nouriel Roubini is the co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics and a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business.From 1998-2000, he served as the Senior Economist for International Affairs at the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then as Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises among other issues.The Global economy is a glass half full half empty says Nouriel Roubini who is just back from the Davos meeting at the time of this keynote speech

Roubini : The Crisis started with too much Private debt and ended with to much Public debt

Nouriel Roubini ...The crisis started with too much private debt and then we socialized the losses and now we have too much public debt and so these sovereign have lost market access and are now being bailed out by super nationals Greece Ireland Portugal are being bailed out by the IMF ECB EFSF EU you name it , but you cannot kick the can down the road from these stock or public debt from private to public to sopra national no one is going to come from the moon or Mars to bailout the IMF or the ECB if the debt is too much and you cannot grow yourself out of that problem , if you cannot save yourself out of the debt problem and if you cannot inflate yourself out of that problem because the ECB is not going to allow inflation ..then there is only one solution debt restructure and debt reduction done in orderly and market friendly oriented way ...

Nouriel Roubini : Romania will not join the euro zone in 2015

Nouriel Roubini : I don’t think Romania will join the euro zone in 2015 : Romania will not join the euro zone in 2015 and should wait a year or two to ensure a healthy financial and economical situation, so that it doesn’t follow Greece’s footsteps, said economist Nouriel Roubini in a conference in Bucharest

Nouriel Roubini latest Interview from Romania

Nouriel Roubini about Greece, IMF, defaults : ....."..My view is that the most qualified individual should get the job ( The IMF presidency ) regardless of whether they are European or not , it looks like Christine Lagarde is likely to become the new managing director of the IMF she is very smart she is very qualified for this job , but of course there is a question of process of whether other candidates especially from emerging economies should be seriously considered , there are some excellent candidates out there....." Roubini said about the IMF presidency

Nouriel Roubini on the IMF Chief resignation

Nouriel Roubini Says Lagarde Will Be European Pick for IMF Chief

Nouriel Roubini , the economist who predicted the global financial crisis, talks about Dominique Strauss-Kahn's resignation as head of the International Monetary Fund and his possible successor. Roubini, says that Lagarde will be probably the European candidate and that USA will understand that because it does not want to lose the control over the World Bank traditionally run by an American while the IMF is traditionally run by a European, , Roubini also discusses Greece's debt crisis.

How does the new Economic reality look like?

This all convinces me that economists all have their own sets of convenient statistics which support their own pet theories and explain nothing. They can never agree on the cause of what has passed, let alone predict what is to come. At least they are not as greedy & evil as bankers...


The notion of a "new normal" is premature given the fragility of the global economy, but the elements of a new economic reality appear to now be in place.

In partnership with the World Economic Forum, Time magazine hosts this debate focusing on the elements of the new economic reality.

Moderated by
Michael J. Elliott

Panellists
Azim Premji, Nouriel Roubini, Sir Martin Sorrell, James S. Turley, Min Zhu

Nouriel Roubini on The Portuguese Economy

Nouriel Roubini on The Portuguese Economy : it's a country that actually has a significant amount of human capital people have really great sophistication and skills , has good entrepreneurial class has good financial system has solid private sector , and you have to really private sector development comes out of new firms of existing firms of more efficiency more productivity are achieved you have to sacrifice you make sacrifices and you get growth...you have to restore growth as a country that have tradition of openness of financial flows and so on there are many sectors in which growth and productivity could increase significantly...

Nouriel Roubini in Estoril Conference Portugal - 2011

Nouriel Roubini : there is already an economic recovery in the global economy that economic recovery started already in the middle of 2009 so I think the issue is now is to whether there is a recovery but what pace of that recovery...in emerging markets that recovery is very robust high growth strong growth even over heating and in some advanced economies there is so much private and public debt that there is no direct return to economic growth and unfortunately in the periphery of the euro zone you have five countries Greece Ireland Spain Portugal Italy where either the economy is still contracting so they are not getting out of their first recession or if they gotten out the growth is so low or close to zero that it feels like recession even if technically we are out of recession

Roubini : Corporate earnings growth will likely disappoint next year

Corporate earnings growth will likely disappoint next year because of rising commodity prices and slower-than-expected economic growth, “So far things have been great. Companies have slashed costs. But on margins and sales, things are going to be more difficult from here,” . “15% to 20% growth in earnings next year is frankly far fetched.” Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, said Wednesday. during the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference in Las Vegas via MarketWatch

The euro becoming stronger and stronger is preventing the resumption of economic growth

“The euro becoming stronger and stronger is preventing the resumption of economic growth,” “If there is not going to be economic growth their own fiscal problems . . . will never be resolved. There is a risk of a double dip.” Nouriel Roubini via The BBC

Roubini : We are not gonna have QE3

Nouriel Roubini from his native Istanbul in Turkey answering the questions of Bloomberg TV about the outlook for the U.S. economy. Roubini also discusses expectations for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's news conference today



Nouriel Roubini : mostly likely there is not going to be QE3 unless the economy goes back to stall still , there is not going to be QE3 because growth is OK inflation is rising the republicans in congress are bashing the FED may be wrongly saying that the FED debased the currency

Roubini : China economy is overheating now

Nouriel Roubini  : "China's economy is overheating now, but, over time, its current overinvestment will prove deflationary both domestically and globally. Once increasing fixed investment becomes impossible - most likely after 2013 - China is poised for a sharp slowdown. Instead of focusing on securing a soft landing today, Chinese policymakers should be worrying about the brick wall that economic growth may hit in the second half of the quinquennium. " in an article in the aljazeera english http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/04/2011415133455105416.html

Black Swan Theory explained by Nassim Taleb

Black Swan Theory by Nassim Nicholas Taleb , The Black Swan Theory explains the existence and occurrence of high-impact , hard-to-predict , and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations which no economist can predict. Any economist that says that they can predict the future is a fraud.Most of the economists are expecting after the fact they explain what HAPPENED , the banking system for 12 years have been building risks on things we do not understand based on bogus economic models financial risk management tools that was unacceptable on says Nassim Taleb

Roubini on Greece Debt Restructuring

“The issue of Greece is not whether there will be debt restructuring, but when it will be done, and whether it will be an orderly market-oriented debt exchange or disorderly like in Argentina,” “One can make the same argument for Portugal’s government and Irish banks.” Nouriel Roubini said on 15 April 2011 at a conference in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s financial center.
in www.moneynews.com

Nassim Taleb : Individuality in a Mass Age

Black Swan author Nassim Taleb at Names Not Numbers 2011 . Nassim Taleb is the best-selling author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. So called 'Black Swan Events' are climactic, random and hard-to-predict events that have been entirely unexpected, and often hitherto perceived to be impossible.

Roubini its a G0 World rather than a G20 world

Nouriel Roubini at the 7th Edition of the Atlantic Dinners

Nouriel Roubini's speech starts at around 2:50
" ...we are in a world in which most power think of the global issues as a zero sum game as opposed to a positive sum game , and if you think about issues as being a zero sum game then it's a G0 world rather than a G20 world , so with all the estimates of how much these agreements and conflicts and lack of leadership could be a source of tension and lead us to a world in which in addition to the macro uncertainty the financial uncertainty there is now policy uncertainty regulatory uncertainty political uncertainty and now even geopolitical uncertainties ..."


N

Nouriel Roubini featured in the movie Inside Job

The professor of economics at NYU Stern School of Business Nouriel Roubini nicknamed Dr. Doom because he correctly predicted the great recession that hit the US and the Global starting in 2008 he was featured in a recent movie called 'Inside Job' a movie about the global financial crisis of 2008,

Roubini : Fed, ECB Policy Divide May Be Destabilizing

New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, speaks from Cernobbio, Italy, with Bloomberg Television on Apr. 01, 2011
Nouriel Roubini :"...Banking risk becomes sovereign risk when the government bailout financial institutions but eventually that leads to a sovereign debt crisis and that can damage the real economy and the financial system " " I understand the logic of the ECB decision They’re likely going to raise rates in April and then continue for a few times this year because the core of the Eurozone is growing fast and headline inflation is above target But you have five countries in the periphery where there’s almost no growth or contraction, where you have severe banking problems, where you’ve had a loss of competitiveness, where there is a need to restore economic growth and I fear that an early hike is going to increase the growth fragility, the worsening of competitiveness with stronger Euro , the financial fragility both of the banking system and of the government so on net that's a risk "

Nouriel Roubini : Spain too large to be saved

Nouriel Roubini : " Spain is not only too big for it could be allowed to fail - it is also too large to be saved."
Roubini told a German newspaper , Nouriel Roubini is one of the few economists who warned in 2006, about the financial crisis. Because of his often pessimistic forecasts, he also carries the nick name "Dr. Doom" He did not rule that the debt crisis could spread to Italy and Belgium.

Roubini : The probability that Spain will lose in the next twelve months access to financial markets, is at 50 percent

"The probability that Spain will lose in the next twelve months access to financial markets, is at 50 percent," Economist Nouriel Roubini said recently in London in a speech to the London Business School of Economics. In the worst case could spill over the debt crisis of Europe, the United States. "It may well come in the bond markets to a rebellion against the United States." The probability is was low, but it is increasing. "We must not underestimate this risk."

Roubini : The Yen should weaken in the long run

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman & Co-founder of Roubini Global Economics speaks to CNBC about his outlook for Japan and the Yen "there is not enough transparency and when there is not enough transparency the markets get nervous " Nouriel Roubini says we do not know much damage (there is in Japan after the quake the Tsunami and the nuclear fallout )

Nouriel Roubini : Romania has the potential to attract Foreign Direct Investment

During a keynote speech someone from the audience asked Dr. Nouriel Roubini what he thinks of the situation in Romania , hiw answer was (the transcript is below the video ):


Nouriel Roubini : Romania has the potential to attract Foreign Direct Investment in the manufacturing segment."
"The type of the global economic crisis, Romania - as many countries in Central and Eastern Europe - has faced serious economic and financial challenges: increasing the budget deficit, current account deficits, overvalued currencies. Romanian State (as Lithuania, Hungary and other Central and Eastern European countries involved in an IMF program) was under strong financial pressure and needed the support of the international community.There were omissions in this program and the ability to control the indebtedness of the state was a challenge. The international community expresses its financial support for Romania and for its efforts. Romania is a country that, thanks to geographical positioning and low cost of labor may attract FDI, especially in the segment of production. Thus, they can only sustain the economy. We have to balance their taxes, this is really a challenge for Romania and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. "

Nouriel Roubini on The G20 process for efficacy

Nouriel Roubini : I believe, on one side, it is necessary because the global economic and financial problems require a systemically important emerging market economies to be on the table.You cannot resolve problems of global imbalance , energy security, financial stability and climate change without having countries like India and China and many other emerging markets on board.In that sense, G7 was obsolete. But in other sense, it is much difficult to reach an agreement with 20 countries on the table and therefore, agreements were only in the time of crisis. But now there is wide divergence of views on a wide spectrum of issues. "

Roubini on The Middle East unrest and its implications on the Oil Prices

In an article entitled : Global stakes of Mideast turmoil dated 19 March 2011 on the ArabAmericanNews.com Professor Nouriel Roubini gives a detailed analysis on the situation in the middle east and the possible implications on the global economy especially the rising oil prices he wrote "Severe unrest in the Middle East has historically been a source of oil-price spikes, which in turn have triggered three of the last five global recessions. The Yom Kippur War in 1973 caused a sharp increase in oil prices, leading to the global stagflation of 1974-1975. The Iranian revolution in 1979 led to a similar stagflationary increase in oil prices, which culminated in the recession of 1980-1981. And Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 led to a spike in oil prices at a time when a U.S. banking crisis was already tipping America into recession."
read full article here >>>

Control on short term capital flows tend to affect the composition of inflows between short term and long term capital

Nouriel Roubini :"This is one of the options that countries are increasingly considering and applying. Brazil and Korea have done so. If inflows of capital becomes excessive and this leads to excessive appreciation, one could impose controls on short term capital inflows. The evidence, however, shows that control on short term capital flows tend to affect the composition of inflows between short term and long term capital.They don't tend to affect very much overall volume of inflows. So, if you are concerned about hot money, it is effective. But if your concern is about inflows appreciating your currency, those controls are not affecting the overall volume of flows. " in an interview with ET Now

Roubini : Japan needs to significantly depreciate the Yen

In an interview today with CNBC Dr Nouriel Roubini talked about the Japan quake and its impact on the global economy , the future for the Yen and the Japaneses economy in general and its impact globally "Japan is going to need significant depreciation of the yen to increase its net exports because domestic demand is going to be anemic for a while. Therefore on a fundamental basis, the yen is going to be much weaker rather than stronger because you need improvement of external balance given the shock to the domestic economy," Nouriel Roubini told CNBC

Roubini on Indian GDP growth and Inflation

Nouriel Roubini :"....In part, what is happening is that some of the inflationary pressures are external to the country. There is increase in global commodity prices. Oil, energy, food-... that is not directly in your control.But it is also that domestic demand has been robust for good reasons. But, constraints are on the supply side. If demand is growing, supply has to grow as fast to maintain price stability. There are bottlenecks on the productive side of the economy because of lack of infrastructure.Invest in a various range of economic reforms to sustain an increase in potential growth. Make sure that as potential growth becomes higher, actual economic growth becomes higher and then inflationary pressures get contained. If actual growth becomes higher than potential, then one of the consequences will be rising inflation...."
in ET Now

Nouriel Roubini : Japan Quake Worst Thing at Worst Time

Roubini Says Japan Quake 'Worst Thing' at Worst Time , it will weaken the economic activities as people die or could not work Nouriel Roubini, founder of Roubini Global Economics, discusses the 8.9 magnitude earthquake in Japan and the European debt crisis. Roubini says that the ECB will keep raising rates beyond April , Roubini believes that it would be wrong for ECB to raise borrowing costs

Nouriel Roubini : uncertainties weighing on growth

"There are many positives in the global economy but significant uncertainties still remain," "For the next few years, we will be living in a world where these uncertainties may have a negative impact on the economy and financial markets." Nouriel Roubini said on Tuesday at an investment conference in Dubai.
via www.moneycontrol.com

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - India Today Conclave 2010

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Philosopher & Expert On Risk - Session Economy - Power of the Unknown- India Today Conclave 2010.

Charlie Rose - Nassim Taleb

Charlie Rose - Nassim Taleb : Author Nassim Taleb on deficits

Nouriel Roubini : The ECB is rushing too fast into hiking rates

Mar. 4 2011 | "i think that the ECB is rushing too fast into hiking rates," Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics told CNBC.Nouriel Roubini : ECB April Rate Hike a Mistake

Nassim Taleb, America finds fools to buy its bonds, January 2011

Nassim Taleb, fragile investments at this time, January 2011:
The American budget deficit is worse than that of Greece ...the fact that you can find some fool to buy your bonds so far may cease ....the Chinese have so far 2 trillion and we need a trillion to borrow ...and now it is partly done by printing and partly done by going to find a fool to buy the bonds ...so really we have a very fragile situation in the United States without unlike Greece having the IMF on top to force them ...


Nassim Taleb, fragile investments at this time, January 2011

Roubini The Sharp rise in food commodities and the unrest in the Middle east

Nouriel Roubini :......The Sharp rise in food commodities and the Middle east unrest n are the next crisis , it is not only in the middle east but also in India Pakistan and other parts of the world , the rise of commodity prices is leading to social instability , we can see regimes changes in most of the middle east countries in the next months if not in the next years , the most probable candidates according to Nouriel Roubini are Yemen which could see a break-up and a possible civil war , Bahrain may see a regime change which will trigger changes in neighboring eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia also a majority Shiites just like Bahrain but ruled by Sunni dynasties , the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia are those with most of the oil fields , another possible candidate for unrest are Jordan Syria and of course Iran ....

Nassim Taleb on ManagemenTV

I like the interviewer, he seems like an ordinary guy, partly clueless. Also, this was a good summary of many of the points Nassim Taleb has been trying to make, since Fooled By Randomness and onward.It's good that Nassim is taking his time with the book, but also sad that it probably won't be here for several years.

Nouriel Roubini : unrest in Libya could lead to a spike in oil prices and global recession

Nouriel Roubini  : "...three out of the past five global recessions have followed a Middle East geopolitical shock that led to a spike in oil prices. In the other two global recessions, oil prices also played a role...."
via www.citywire.co.uk

Nouriel Roubini, and Ian Bremmer, outlook on the Economy 15 Feb 2011 CNBC

Tues. Feb. 15 2011 | Discussing whether economic recovery has taken hold, with Frederic Mishkin, former Federal Reserve Board governor; Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics; and Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group.

Nouriel Roubini : we are pushing the problem towards the future

Feb 18, 2011 | Economist Nouriel Roubini says to avoid a 'fisical train wreck' America needs to make sacrifices and have leaders take risks.
Nouriel Roubini :"...I think we are kicking the can down the road and the president the democrats are doing it but also the republicans , in order to reduce the budget deficit we have to cut spending and eventually it will also increase revenues and taxes but so far the democrats are against entitlement reforms that is necessary medicare medicaid social security and the republicans are against any form of tax increases ..." we are pushing the problem towards the future ..." Roubini added