Roubini : The Commodity Supercycle likely over

The "commodity supercycle" likely over: Roubini Economist Nouriel Roubini says weaker growth in China and a slow recovery in advanced economies will pressure global commodities prices, ending their decade-long bull market.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Cosa Chiede l'Italia alla Germania

Roubini to The Repubblica Italian Newspaper : Cosa si chiede alla Germania Nouriel Roubini, docente di Economia alla New York University, intervistato da Eugenio Occorsio



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are over-hyped BRICS countries

Then, there are the over-hyped BRICS countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the United States this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) GDP rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries’ potential growth. - in www.project-syndicate.org


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: 'Die Eurozone ist noch sehr zerbrechlich'

 Die Weltwirtschaft scheint die Nachwehen der Finanzkrise langsam hinter sich zu lassen. Für das laufende Jahr wird wieder ein weltweites Wirtschaftswachstum im Bereich von rund vier Prozent erwartet. Entsprechend optimistisch präsentiert sich Wirtschaftsprofessor Nouriel Roubini, New York University, im Interview mit Börse Stuttgart TV. Die Stimmung trüben könnte jedoch die Eurozone, diese sei noch "immer sehr zerbrechlich", so Roubini.





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Markets Are not all the Same

"The threat of a full-fledged currency, sovereign-debt, and banking crisis remains low, even in the Fragile Five, for several reasons,"
 "All have flexible exchange rates, a large war chest of reserves to shield against a run on their currencies and banks, and fewer currency mismatches (for example, heavy foreign-currency borrowing to finance investment in local-currency assets). Many also have sounder banking systems, while their public and private debt ratios, though rising, are still low, with little risk of insolvency." Roubini wrote  in a new piece for Project Syndicate.

"Over time, optimism about emerging markets is probably correct," Roubini continued. "Many have sound macroeconomic, financial, and policy fundamentals. Moreover, some of the medium-term fundamentals for most emerging markets, including the fragile ones, remain strong: urbanization, industrialization, catch-up growth from low per capita income, a demographic dividend, the emergence of a more stable middle class, the rise of a consumer society, and the opportunities for faster output gains once structural reforms are implemented."

However, "it is not fair to lump all emerging markets into one basket; differentiation is needed," warned Roubini.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Many Emerging Markets are in real trouble

"Many emerging markets are in real trouble" Roubini wrote early this month in an article for Project Syndicate. "The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa (the 'Fragile Five'), because all have twin fiscal and current-account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative and/or presidential elections this year."

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Tech to Replace White Collar Jobs

(Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics and Ian Bremmer, President at Eurasia Group, discuss the lingering effects of the financial crisis and the global risks for the year ahead from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.”





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Emerging Markets fall back to earth

by Nouriel Roubini

The financial turmoil that hit emerging-market economies last spring, following the US Federal Reserve's "taper tantrum" over its quantitative easing (QE) policy, has returned with a vengeance. This time, the trigger was a confluence of several events: a currency crisis in Argentina, where the authorities stopped intervening in the forex markets to prevent the loss of foreign reserves; weaker economic data from China; and persistent political uncertainty and unrest in Turkey, Ukraine and Thailand.

This mini-perfect storm in emerging markets was soon transmitted, via international investors' risk aversion, to advanced economies' stock markets. But the immediate trigger for these pressures should not be confused with their deeper causes: many emerging markets are in real trouble.
The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa – dubbed the "Fragile Five" because all have twin fiscal and current-account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative and/or presidential elections this year. But five other significant countries – Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary and Thailand – are also vulnerable. Political and/or electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.
read more @ http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/03/emerging-markets-nouriel-roubini
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : 'Fragile Five' face low risk of full-fledged crisis

The Fragile Five Emerging Economies are : India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa  
Roubini : "All have flexible exchange rates, a large war chest of reserves to shield against a run on their currencies and banks and fewer currency mismatches (for example, heavy foreign-currency borrowing to finance investment in local-currency assets)," Roubini, nicknamed Dr. Doom for his generally bearish views, wrote in an op-ed on the Project Syndicate website on Friday. "Many also have sounder banking systems, while their public and private debt ratios, though rising, are still low, with little risk of insolvency," he said. "The short-run policy tradeoffs that many of these countries face - damned if they tighten monetary and fiscal policy fast enough, and damned if they do not - remain ugly," he said.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : The Trouble with Emerging Markets

Nouriel Roubini

LAGOS – The financial turmoil that hit emerging-market economies last spring, following the US Federal Reserve’s “taper tantrum” over its quantitative-easing (QE) policy, has returned with a vengeance. This time, the trigger was a confluence of several events: a currency crisis in Argentina, where the authorities stopped intervening in the forex markets to prevent the loss of foreign reserves; weaker economic data from China; and persistent political uncertainty and unrest in Turkey, Ukraine, and Thailand.

This mini perfect storm in emerging markets was soon transmitted, via international investors’ risk aversion, to advanced economies’ stock markets. But the immediate trigger for these pressures should not be confused with their deeper causes: Many emerging markets are in real trouble.

The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa – dubbed the “Fragile Five,” because all have twin fiscal and current-account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative and/or presidential elections this year. But five other significant countries – Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand – are also vulnerable. Political and/or electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.

Then, there are the over-hyped BRICS countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the United States this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) GDP rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries’ potential growth.

The largest of the BRICS, China, faces additional risk stemming from a credit-fueled investment boom, with excessive borrowing by local governments, state-owned enterprises, and real-estate firms severely weakening the asset portfolios of banks and shadow banks. Most credit bubbles this large have ended up causing a hard economic landing, and China’s economy is unlikely to escape unscathed, particularly as reforms to rebalance growth from high savings and fixed investment to private consumption are likely to be implemented too slowly, given the powerful interests aligned against them.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-explains-why-many-previously-fast-growing-economies-suddenly-find-themselves-facing-strong-headwinds#TC6i3WSDheYSMwjB.99

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini on The Fragile Five Currency Crisis

"Nonetheless, the threat of a full-fledged currency, sovereign-debt, and banking crisis remains low, even in the Fragile Five, for several reasons. All have flexible exchange rates, a large war chest of reserves to shield against a run on their currencies and banks, and fewer currency mismatches (for example, heavy foreign-currency borrowing to finance investment in local-currency assets). Many also have sounder banking systems, while their public and private debt ratios, though rising, are still low, with little risk of insolvency.
"Over time, optimism about emerging markets is probably correct. Many have sound macroeconomic, financial, and policy fundamentals. Moreover, some of the medium-term fundamentals for most emerging markets, including the fragile ones, remain strong: urbanization, industrialization, catch-up growth from low per capita income, a demographic dividend, the emergence of a more stable middle class, the rise of a consumer society, and the opportunities for faster output gains once structural reforms are implemented. So it is not fair to lump all emerging markets into one basket; differentiation is needed." - in Project Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Japan-China war of words goes ballistic in Davos

Nouriel: “Japan-China war of words goes ballistic in Davos” and “A black swan in the form of a war between China & Japan?” along with various comments on the emerging market issues, saying, “Argentina currency crisis & contagion to other EM – on top of weak China PMI – suggests that some emerging markets are still fragile.”


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

BRICS: Absence of demographic divided

The fifth reason, which ails the BRICS economies (specifically China and Russia), according to Roubini, is the absence of demographic dividend as the population is ageing for a number of reasons. Lower population growth is associated with lower potential growth, he observed. - in http://www.firstpost.com



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Excessive role of State-owned Economies

 Secondly, not only did these economies fail to implement market oriented reforms, they moved towards a growth regime based on state capitalism, wherein there is an excessive role of state-owned entities in the economy, he added.


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Commodity Super-cycle is Over

the commodity super-cycle is probably over — for a variety of reasons — and this hurts the BRICS that are commodity exporters: Russia, Brazil and South Africa. “Given the slowdown of China, after years of high prices, commodity prices may fall further, hurting the growth of the commodity oriented BRICS,” said Roubini, well known for his bubble warnings and doom scenarios. - in www.firstpost.com


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The BRICS are in the midst of a midlife Crisis

“Are the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and, its most recent member, South Africa) in the midst of a midlife crisis? Based on recent data, this would appear to be the case,” said Roubini
“Three of the five BRICS (Brazil, India and South Africa) are now part of what investors consider the Fragile Five emerging market economies (the other two being Turkey and Indonesia).
“These fragile emerging markets share weaknesses, such as large current account deficits, large fiscal deficits, falling growth, rising inflation and political and policy uncertainty, and they all face parliamentary or presidential elections this year,” he said.- in firstpost.com


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Main Theme at Davos 2014 : The Rising Tension between China & Japan

Probably the biggest one was the rising tension between China and Japan. People are starting to make comparisons to 1914: You have a rising power facing an existing power, and in the past that has led to war.
Of course, it's not inevitable, but both the Japanese side and even the Chinese side have made bellicose statements. So I hope diplomacy can succeed but I'd say that that was one of the big stories.

- in businessinsider.com

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini in Davos -- China Hard Landing

"I worry that this is going to be a gradual process and China is not going to rebalance fast enough, compared to what is desirable and optimal, and therefore the risk of a potential hard landing have not been totally, actually cleared yet,"
"They (the government) could be successful in this rebalancing but I would like to point out some elements, or at least skepticism, of why things might not turn out. And if you don't rebalance, instead of a soft landing you get a hard landing." said Roubini, the co-founder of Roubini Global Economics, speaking at the World Economic in Davos


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Central Banks of the G4 Countries are not going to exit the Near-Zero Policy Rates this Year

Roubini: We don't worry about inflation. We think that accommodation is not going to be inflationary because there is still a significant slack in goods and labor markets. Therefore, our baseline this year is growth either at potential or below potential for advanced economies, and that implies that inflation is going to remain low—below the 2 percent of the formal or informal target of central banks for all of the major advanced economies, from the U.S. to eurozone, to Japan, even the U.K.
And that’s going to imply that therefore the central banks of the G4 countries are not going to exit the near-zero policy rates this year. The exit for near-zero policy rates is going to be only next year. Yes, the Fed is going to taper. Yes, the Bank of England is not going to do more quantitative easing. But we see actually more unconventional monetary policy accommodation done by the Bank of Japan and by the European Central Bank.
Therefore, the outlook of moderate growth, low inflation and continuing monetary accommodation and a slow exit from conventional, unconventional monetary easing implies that bond yields gradually are going to go higher, but not much higher.
That means our forecast, say, for 10-year U.S. Treasurys is that by the end of this year, yields will be around 3.4 percent. Now, that’s a negative real return [including capital losses], but it’s not a disaster or a rout for the bond market. In the mild environment of low inflation, moderate growth and accommodation, we see the pickup in bond yields in the U.S. being barely 60 basis points. Same thing for bunds; same thing for gilts; and for Japan even less, maybe by year-end, 10-year JGBs [Japanese government bonds] will be at 1 percent as opposed to 0.7 or 0.8 percent. - in IndexUniverse


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: I’m not “Dr. Doom,” I’m “Dr. Realist.”

Nouriel Roubini: First of all, I’m not “doom-and-gloom.” I’m not “Dr. Doom,” I’m “Dr. Realist.” I predicted correctly the trouble when it did occur, but the global economy has been recovering now for a few years from a very severe financial crisis. And I would say that compared to a year ago or even two years ago, some of the tail risks to the global economy today are lower.
For example: the tail risks of breakup of the eurozone or Italy and Spain losing market access; the tail risk of another fiscal crisis in the U.S. with a fight on the debt ceiling or on the government shutdown; the tail risk at least in the short run of a hard landing of China; or the tail risk of a war between Israel and Iran that then there's a spike in oil prices.
Those are four of the important systemic tail risks in a global economy. I would say this year they are less likely than last year, and last year they were already less likely than in 2012. - in IndexUniverse


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Advanced Economies are Growing Faster this Year than last Year

Roubini: The advanced economies are growing faster this year than last year, say, closer to 2 percent rather than 1 percent. But within this group of advanced economies, the U.S. and U.K. are going to do better than 2 percent, while Japan and the eurozone are going to do worse than 2 percent. So there’s a differentiation. - in indexuniverse

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

4 of the important Systemic Tail Risks in a Global Economy

Nouriel Roubini : First of all, I’m not “doom-and-gloom.” I’m not “Dr. Doom,” I’m “Dr. Realist.” I predicted correctly the trouble when it did occur, but the global economy has been recovering now for a few years from a very severe financial crisis. And I would say that compared to a year ago or even two years ago, some of the tail risks to the global economy today are lower.
For example: the tail risks of breakup of the eurozone or Italy and Spain losing market access; the tail risk of another fiscal crisis in the U.S. with a fight on the debt ceiling or on the government shutdown; the tail risk at least in the short run of a hard landing of China; or the tail risk of a war between Israel and Iran that then there's a spike in oil prices.
Those are four of the important systemic tail risks in a global economy. I would say this year they are less likely than last year, and last year they were already less likely than in 2012. - in Indexuniverse


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

In Japan, Abe puts an end to decades long Deflation

In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government has made significant headway in overcoming almost two decades of deflation, thanks to monetary easing and fiscal expansion. The main uncertainties stem from the coming increase in the consumption tax and slow implementation of the third “arrow” of “Abenomics,” namely structural reforms and trade liberalization. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini vs Ian Bremmer Debate on US Growth in 2014

Roubini believes that the U.S. is going to grow about 2.5 percent this year “I fear that much of the U.S. workforce doesn’t have the skill set and education to compete [and capitalize on new technology],” said Roubini. Roubini made his comments at a breakfast event hosted on Friday by Time Inc. The conversation, which also included the Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer, was moderated by Time's Rana Foroohar



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Fed’s exit from QE will be slow, keeping Interest Rates Low

“Brisker recovery in advanced economies will boost imports from emerging markets. The Fed’s exit from quantitative easing will be slow, keeping interest rates low. Policy reforms in China will attenuate the risk of a hard landing. And, with many emerging markets still urbanising and industrialising, their rising middle classes will consume more goods and services.” - in Project-syndicate


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: 2014 will be Another Disappointing Year for The U.S. Economy

Roubini says growth will pick up, but not enough to produce raises for average American workers. That will limit Americans' ability to shop and pay down debt, two things the economy needs for sustained growth. At the same time, corporate earnings are slowing. And while stocks aren't in a bubble, Roubini says they now look expensive. What's more, he says the U.S. may not get as much of a boost from its growing energy supply in 2014 as many think.
"The question is whether we have gotten to sustainable growth that is not based on bubbles," says Roubini. "Not yet." - via www.finance.fortune.cnn.com



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini vs. El-Erian: How Bad Off Is the Economy?

Bloomberg Television's "Lunch Money" Host Matt Miller reports on the global economy. (Source: Bloomberg)


 

The arguably more positive outlook about the US and the global economy implies that over time the Federal Reserve and other central banks will exit from quantitative easing and zero interest policy rates, which means that real rates will rise, rather than fall. With gold performing better in a zero or negative interest rate environment Roubini thus sees its attraction waning as interest rates start to rise.Roubini argues that some of the Central banks of the more indebted nations may be tempted to liquidate part of their gold holdings and thus further depress the gold market. He points specifically to Cyprus where a report that it might sell a small fraction -- some €400 million ($520 million) -- of its gold reserves may have contributed to triggering a 13% fall in gold prices in April. Countries like Italy, which has massive gold reserves (above $130 billion), he says, could be similarly tempted, driving down prices further Roubini comments..
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

[VIDEO] Swiss Business TV: Nouriel Roubini

 Prof. Nouriel Roubini, der Starökonom aus New York, über die Finanzkrise, die globale Elite und Prognosen für die Wirtschaft.




Nouriel Roubini (* 29. März 1958 in Istanbul, Türkei) ist ein US-amerikanischer Nationalökonom und Professor an der Stern School of Business in New York City und Gründer und Vorsitzender von Roubini Global Economics LLC, Anbieter für Kapitalmarkt und Wirtschaftsinformationen. Vor seiner Tätigkeit als Professor war er Berater des U.S. Treasury Departments.

Nouriel Roubini wurde als Sohn iranischer Juden in Istanbul geboren. Seine Familie siedelte nach Teheran über als er zwei Jahre alt war und dann nach Tel Aviv, später nach Italien und endlich in die USA. In Italien wuchs er auf und ging zur Schule. Er spricht deshalb Persisch, Hebräisch, Italienisch und Englisch. Er war stets in der Rolle des Aussenseiters, war vielleicht dazu beigetragen hat, dass er sich bis heute nicht um Mehrheitsmeinungen kümmert.

Roubini studierte von 1977 bis 1982 an der Wirtschaftsuniversität Luigi Bocconi, Wirtschaftswissenschaften, nachdem er zuvor ein Jahr an der Hebräischen Universität Jerusalem (Israel) gelernt hatte.

Nach seinem Abschluss wechselte er 1983 an die Harvard University, wo er 1988 promoviert wurde. Seinen Doktorvater Jeffrey Sachs beeindruckte er mit seinem Doppeltalent: Nouriel Roubini fühlte sich ebenso in der Mathematik zu Hause wie in der Analyse von politischen und wirtschaftlichen Institutionen. An der Yale-Universität (New Haven, Connecticut, USA) lehrte Roubini von 1988 bis 1995. Hier traf er Robert Shiller, jenem Wirtschaftswissenschaftler, der sehr früh die Blase bei Internet- und Technologieaktien erkannte.

The Global Economy will Grow faster in 2014

In sum, the global economy will grow faster in 2014, while tail risks will be lower. But, with the possible exception of the US, growth will remain anemic in most advanced economies, and emerging-market fragility – including China’s uncertain efforts at economic rebalancing – could become a drag on global growth in subsequent years. - in www.project-syndicate.org

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China will maintain an annual Growth Rate above 7% in 2014

China will maintain an annual growth rate above 7% in 2014. But, despite the reforms set out by the Third Plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, the shift in China’s growth model from fixed investment toward private consumption will occur too slowly. Many vested interests, including local governments and state-owned enterprises, are resisting change; a huge volume of private and public debt will go sour; and the country’s leadership is divided on how quickly reforms should be implemented. So, while China will avoid a hard landing in 2014, its medium-term prospects remain worrisome. - in project-syndicate.org

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Excellent choices "Obama to Nominate Fischer, Brainard, Powell to Fed’s Board

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Excellent choices "Obama to Nominate Fischer, Brainard, Powell to Fed’s Board" http://bloom.bg/1lIBy12- in twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

US Recovery is still tentative and subject to downside risks

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Employment report suggest that the US recovery is still tentative and subject to downside risks- in twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Bubbles can go on for quite a while

Bubbles can go on for quite a while, until there is a sharp change in monetary policy. Looking at the low interest rates I don’t expect any bubble to burst anytime soon. - in fuw.ch

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Bubbles In Several Housing Markets

Now, five years later, signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles, are reappearing in housing markets in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and, back for an encore, the UK (well, London). In emerging markets, bubbles are appearing in Hong Kong, Singapore, China, and Israel, and in major urban centers in Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Brazil.

Signs that home prices are entering bubble territory in these economies include fast-rising home prices, high and rising price-to-income ratios, and high levels of mortgage debt as a share of household debt. In most advanced economies, bubbles are being inflated by very low short- and long-term interest rates. Given anemic GDP growth, high unemployment, and low inflation, the wall of liquidity generated by conventional and unconventional monetary easing is driving up asset prices, starting with home prices. - Business Insider

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Fed Exit from QE will be slow

"The Federal Reserve’s exit from quantitative easing will be slow, keeping interest rates low.”


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini Interview ~ Lugano Fund Forum 2013

Lugano Fund Forum 2013 - Intervista a Nouriel Roubini


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Hungary, Ukraine, Argentina, and Venezuela will remain fragile in 2014

Still, some emerging markets – namely, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Hungary, Ukraine, Argentina, and Venezuela – will remain fragile in 2014, owing to large external and fiscal deficits, slowing growth, below-target inflation, and election-related political tensions. Some of these countries – for example, Indonesia – have recently undertaken more policy adjustment and will be subject to lower risks, though their growth and asset markets remain vulnerable to policy and political uncertainties and potential external shocks. - in www.project-syndicate.org



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Economies will grow faster in 2014

Emerging economies will grow faster in 2014 – closer to 5% year on year – for several reasons. Brisker recovery in advanced economies will boost imports from emerging markets. The Fed’s exit from QE will be slow, keeping interest rates low. Policy reforms in China will attenuate the risk of a hard landing. And, with many emerging markets still urbanizing and industrializing, their rising middle classes will consume more goods and services.

CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphStill, some emerging markets – namely, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Hungary, Ukraine, Argentina, and Venezuela – will remain fragile in 2014, owing to large external and fiscal deficits, slowing growth, below-target inflation, and election-related political tensions.  Some of these countries – for example, Indonesia – have recently undertaken more policy adjustment and will be subject to lower risks, though their growth and asset markets remain vulnerable to policy and political uncertainties and potential external shocks.- in www.project-syndicate.org


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

I am not excessively concerned over Japan

 There is a whole bunch of counterarguments. First, you achieve 2% of inflation only when growth is robust. The better the growth in Japan – either because of monetary and fiscal stimulus or structural reforms – the better is the outlook for the debt dynamics. Second, there is no 1:1 relation between inflation rate and long term yields, as long as a central bank is aggressively buying a big fraction of these bonds for a prolonged period of time. Then the real rates tend to become negative – if inflation goes up even more, which again helps the debt dynamics. I am not excessively concerned over Japan. Of course, in the medium term Japan needs more structural reforms to enhance its growth potential, because only growth can really resolve the debt dynamics, fiscal adjustment alone is not sufficient. But they have time.- in fuw.ch


 

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

US, Economic performance in 2014 will benefit from the Shale-Energy Revolution

In the US, economic performance in 2014 will benefit from the shale-energy revolution, improvement in the labor and housing markets, and the "reshoring" of manufacturing. The downside risks result from political gridlock in Congress (particularly given the upcoming midterm election in November), which will continue to limit progress on long-term fiscal consolidation; a lack of clarity about the Federal Reserve's planned exit from quantitative easing (QE) and zero policy rates; and regulatory uncertainties. - in project syndicate


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Japanification would imply Stagnation and outright Deflation

 How realistic is a deflation scenario in the industrialized countries, the Japanification?

Nouriel Roubini : Japanification would imply stagnation and outright deflation. As long as growth remains below trend, inflation is going to be low, but I don’t see the risk of outright deflation with exception of some countries of the Euro periphery: As long as Germany is not willing to reflate, internal devaluation is forced upon the periphery. It would be better if Germany allowed inflation to go beyond 2%. - in fuw.ch



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Markets Are Underpricing The Risk Of A Slowdown In China

"In my view, the markets are underpricing the risk of a slowdown in China. We expect this year the growth in China would be 7.4%, whereas the consensus is above 8 percent." - in Economic Times

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

FED's Commitment to QE

In spite of the Fed’s impressive commitment to aggressive monetary easing, its effects on the real economy and on U.S. equities could end up being smaller and more fleeting than the effects of previous QE episodes. - in RGE

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Eurozone Fundamental Problems Remain Unresolved

While the eurozone’s tail risks are lower, its fundamental problems remain unresolved: low potential growth; high unemployment; still-high and rising levels of public debt; loss of competitiveness and slow reduction of unit labor costs (which a strong euro does not help); and extremely tight credit rationing, owing to banks’ ongoing deleveraging. Meanwhile, progress toward a banking union will be slow, while no steps will be taken toward establishing a fiscal union, even as austerity fatigue and political risks in the eurozone’s periphery grow. - in project syndicate

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

QE Tapering to have positive impact on S. Korea

  Future tapering of the U.S. quantitative easing (QE) would influence the South Korean economy positively, a New York University economics professor said Monday.
"QE tapering will be positive to Korea," Nouriel Roubini said in Seoul at a meeting with South Korean Finance Minister Hyun Oh- seok, noting that the QE tapering would mean a recovery of the U.S. economy, on which South Korea heavily depends for trade, according to the Finance Ministry.
Interest rate hikes in the U.S. would lead to strong U.S. dollar, having a positive impact on exports, which account for around half of the South Korean economy, said Roubini. In addition, Roubini also said that South Korea held a positive position in terms of fiscal balance and sovereign debts, assessing that the April supplementary budget was appropriate and contributed to the country's recovery.
  



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini gets bullish on global economy

(CNBC) Economist Nouriel Roubini, renowned for his foretelling of doom and gloom in financial markets, has turned bullish in his 2014 outlook, expecting economic performance to “pick up modestly” in both advanced economies and emerging markets.

“The advanced economies, benefiting from a half-decade of painful private-sector deleveraging, a smaller fiscal drag, and maintenance of accommodative monetary policies, will grow at an annual pace closer to 1.9 percent,” he said in an opinion piece on the Project Syndicate website on Tuesday.

“Moreover, so-called tail risks will be less salient in 2014.”
Read the full story ›

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

ISM data shows slowing

  Chicago ISM & regional survey suggest a weakening of the the ISM & manufacturing at the national level. US growth in H2 slowing to a crawl.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Outlook for 2014 is dampened by longer-term constraints

The outlook for 2014 is dampened by longer-term constraints as well. Indeed, there is a looming risk of secular stagnation in many advanced economies, owing to the adverse effect on productivity growth of years of underinvestment in human and physical capital. And the structural reforms that these economies need to boost their potential growth will be implemented too slowly. - in www.project-syndicate.org



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Optimistic for 2014

”The good news is that economic performance will pick up modestly in both advanced economies and emerging markets. The advanced economies, benefiting from a half-decade of painful private-sector deleveraging (households, banks, and non-financial firms), a smaller fiscal drag (with the exception of Japan), and maintenance of accommodative monetary policies, will grow at an annual pace closer to 1.9%.
“Moreover, so-called tail risks (low-probability, high-impact shocks) will be less salient in 2014. The threat, for example, of a eurozone implosion, another government shutdown or debt-ceiling fight in the United States, a hard landing in China, or a war between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation, will be far more subdued.” - in Project Syndicate


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Global Growth will pick up modestly in 2014

Nouriel Roubini says that global growth will pick up modestly in 2014, while the risk of a major shock will diminish. - Project Syndicate

The global economy will grow faster in 2014 than it did in 2013, while tail risks will be lower. But, with the possible exception of the US, growth will remain anemic in advanced economies, and emerging-market fragility – including China’s uncertain efforts at economic rebalancing – could become a drag on global growth.

Read more at www.project-syndicate.org



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics